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+2045 profit on Horse Racing in the last year
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I backed this horse in a Listed race at Bath when drawn high, and she just never got into the race, getting bumped about and absolutely no run at all late on. She made some decent late gains, and back up in trip looks a plus for her, previously making all over 6f at Nottingham. From her draw there is every chance she can nick to the front or forward and prove to be well handicapped off 89, dropping significantly in class for this. She'll saddle her share of weight as a result which does concern slightly, but given she acquitted herself well enough in Group 3 company last season, beaten 3L in and around 100+ rated horses at a big price, I think she's capable of saddling this on handicap debut and looks worth another chance overall at what looks a fair price. Rossa Ryan needs to break his duck at Chester, being 10 from 37 a place without winning, though 7 of those came from 21 runs in stall 5 or below, and 7 of the 10 were 2nds.
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Seraphim Angel went well on debut at Newmarket considering enough went wrong. She started out in stall 2 and ended up hanging left throughout and ending up almost on the other rail. She didn't quite get up the hill as a result from a forward position, but if she ends up on the front end here where she'll be naturally hanging left anyway she could end up staying on a bit more stoutly. That race has already taken a boost, with Lucid 7th, coming out and placing 2nd. The horse in 9th has subsequently finished a similar distance behind Mountain Breeze at Newmarket who looked a proper sort of a horse, but actually won in a slower time than the race in which this horse was involved in over the same course and distance on similar ground so I think you can upgrade the effort. The bundle of pace on does concern slightly, though she has some hope of getting a bit further so could be staying on best.
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Way To Dubai has Some interesting turf form in Germany, getting 6lbs from, and beating, a subsequent Group 3 winner who has run with credit after that too. This suggests to me a return to turf could mean he's a bit unexposed in this company, having been from 5 since running over here and running exclusively on the AW. His best efforts on that surface were in this class over 6 and 7f, with the 7f effort being a particularly decent effort in that he didn't get the smoothest of passages. This represents a slight drop in class into a 0-88 out of generally running in 0-95s, so he carries a fair weight but is a smooth traveller in his races, and if he can step forward for this return to turf he can still be considered well handicapped in my view. He's drawn ok in 4 to get a good pitch too as a bonus in what looks a tricky race overall.
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.