(19/03 14:30) 2:30 Lingfield : Strong Storm EW @ 21.00

Horse Racing

Hopefully we dont get a non-runner to mess up the place terms.

Strong Storm has a decent draw, nice low weight, decent jockey (shame its never ridden it before) taking off a handy 3lbs, won here over 1m and two decent runs recently over 1m 4f. Could lead here and hopefully string them out enough to get a place. I can see reasons to oppose Cupids Glory and Alfie Tupper - poor records here

and Pyrus - goor record here but inexcusably poor run last time out here

Strong Storm seems excellent value for a place @21.00.

TRADE OF THE DAY - see forum thread

0 Comments and 6 Views

(16/03 16:40) 4:40 Cheltenham : Sway EW @ 14.30

Horse Racing

I will be taking on the top 2 as to me they are far too short in such a tough race.

Sway is the selection - Bottom weight. Owned by JPM, trained by JJO and ridden by A P McCoy. Won 4 from 6 in France with previous trainer, and was going very well in a Grade 2 hurdles race at Fontwell before falling 3 out. Has won on good to soft ground and if it can avoid mistakes should run very well at an EW price.

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(16/03 13:30) 1:30 Cheltenham : Oscar Whisky EW @ 12.40

Horse Racing

I wouldn’t be backing Dunguib at evens and I probably wouldn’t be laying it either. If it jumps decently it seems to have the form to place but Cheltenham can be a grave yard for dead certs so I look to an EW pick to attempt to get better value.

There are plenty in with EW chances but I will lumber Oscar Whiskey with the weight of my tip. Justified short-price on all 4 runs. Won well on its last 2 hurdles starts. Trainer has won 8 of his last 15 Cheltenham races. Jockey B J Geraghty chooses this horse ahead of General Miller.

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(15/03 16:00) 4:00 Plumpton : Hiddensee Win nap @ 2.75

Horse Racing

Hiddensee landed a right old gamble last time out and I cannot see any reason why it cannot follow up today. That win was hard fought and it is penalised but this race, with the exception of Gamesters Lady, looks worse. Gamesters Lady is the chief opponent but to me looks very beatable. It hasnt shown much at all in 4 hurdles races but did at least get its head in front on the AW last time out. Hiddensee to follow up.

0 Comments and 14 Views

(11/03 14:20) 2:20 Southwell : Babylonian Lay nap @ SP

Horse Racing

Theres a thin line between bravery and stupidity perhaps. But @2.90 now, and at probably less SP, it seems worth laying Babylonian. Its never run on the unique Southwell surface and his sire stats here are neither good nor bad. Coming off such a long break is also a negative.

Plenty of the other 7 have decent chances. But the one id highlight is Tealing. I am a great fan of jockey J Quinn on the AW and he rides Tealing for the first time today. Add to that its much improved run LTO over 7F with first time eyeshields. Maybe they worked the trick and can continue to do so over this shorter distance.

0 Comments and 9 Views

(08/03 17:00) 5:00 Lingfield : Beyond Win nap @ 1.91

Horse Racing

Beyonds sire is good producer of AW off spring and appears on the Polytrack Combined Best Sires list. Run well alst time and houldnt need to iprove too much to shows these the way home.

Bubbly Braveheart awarded the race last time in the Stewards Room, and on a treble, but seems to have too much weight to cope with Beyond.

Blinkers could work wonders on Moonbalej, but on known form they probably would need to.

0 Comments and 8 Views

(02/03 14:40) 2:40 Lingfield : Srda Lay nb @ 3.50

Horse Racing

I think Srda is lay material here on debut. Polytrack sire stats show nothing exceptional. Low grade affair so it could well win with ease BUT the market doesnt send strong signals. Neduardo could have a good race and Pippbrook does its best work late in the race> Pippbrook is drawn in the coffin box 1 but to me seems to be a Lay to avoid. Most interesting to me is Channons Lockantanks @14/1. Had it been a 8 runner race it would have got my EW vote.

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(02/03 14:10) 2:10 Lingfield : Mawaddah Lay nap @ SP

Horse Racing

Tislimeen from the Channon stable - goes from class 1 on turf to class 5 on AW, quite a step down. Trainer coming into form - well sort of (running well but still 16 runs w/o winner at Lingfield). Tismlimeen has a nice draw in 4 and gets weight advantage. Mawaadah could lead here (will find it easier to hold on here rather than at Kempton LTO) but seems exposed and looks poor value drawn 8. Aiden goes for Johnson newcomer Magic Omen. But I do think a Lay of Mawaddah is value.

0 Comments and 9 Views

(28/02 13:00) Carling Cup 2009/10 : Aston Villa Win @ 2.88

Carling Cup

Villa have made Man utd struggle in both league meetings this year and I think the same may be true today. I watched both league games in full and Villas secret seems to be marking Valencia out of the game. His crossing efficiency this season has been a revelation bringing back memories to me of Coppell and Beckham. When he gets the ball on the wing 80-90% of the time he gets the ball across into the danger zone. Except against Villa.

Obviously my comment only applies if Valencia starts or comes on as sub, which to me is highly likely.

Villa to win in extra time.

1 Comments and 21 Views

(25/02 18:00) Roma v Panathinaikos : Under 2.5 Win @ 2.00

Europa League

Now would be a very good time for Panathinaikos to prove they aren’t the feeble travelers that they have the reputation for. They hold a small lead winning the first leg 3-2 and now travel to Rome for the away leg.

Roma aren’t the best of Italian sides and 1.44 for the home win looks skinny to me.

Looking at the Greek’s away form in the Europa League all 3 matches have been under 2.5 goals. In the main section of the Europa League Roma have played 3 home games, only one of which was over 2.5 goals. Roma have away goal advantage so 1-0 will suit them fine. 2-0 could see the match closed out.

So low goal count for me, with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for the home side perhaps.

0 Comments and 82 Views