(18/03 16:00) 4:00 Cheltenham : Im So Lucky Win nap @ 13.00

Horse Racing

Once again Ferdy Murphy has a fancied runner in a festival handicap with Watch My Back who won really well last time having looked previously to be in the grip of the handicapper. He is a horse that relies on having fast ground and with that likely tomorrow he must have some sort of chance despite racing off 10lbs higher. However, the form of that win where he beat the professional loser Battlecry is hardly world beating and I think his place in the market is more to do with his trainer than his actual chance. Jonjo ONeill throws a couple into the mix with Sunnyhillboy and Song Of Songs both well fancied. Quite why they are so fancied is difficult to fathom though as neither look naturals over fences and are rather relying on the good ground to bring out improvement. Sunnyhillboy would be the pick of the pair as at least he is going the right way. Some previous Festival winners line up too including the runaway winner of this race in 2008, Mister Mcgoldrick who runs off a 4lb lower mark than that victory 2 years ago. His performances this season have shown he is no back number but at the age of 13 it is a tall ask to expect him to be winning a race this competitive. It does happen though and he is much too big a price considering how well handicapped he is. Chapoturgeon on the other hand has looked quite badly handicapped since looking oh so good when sauntering away with the Jewson last year. He has failed on 3 occasions this season to even place and has fallen only 1lb in the ratings so he looks likely to cme up short again. Atouchbetweenacara and Tarotino could both be interesting back on good ground but both also need to prove they are capable off their current marks. That brings me on to my selection which is the Martin Pipe trained Im So Lucky who looked in the process of bouncing back from a spell in the doldrums last time as he was going ominously well when coming down 4 out over this C&D. He is another horse that hasnt had his ideal ground for a while and as a result has dropped to a very favourable handicap mark. He was a 100+ rated horse on the flat and really quite a smart hurdler with a 2nd in the Swinton 2 years ago the highlight. He is also a dual winner over fences but he flopped in a number of big handicaps last Spring and again in the Paddy Power in the Autumn. It was much more like it last time though and that as also the first time he had shown really any sparkle at this course which is encouraging. The one negative is whether the unfortunate experience of being brought down has dented his confidence but I shouldnt think so as it was through no fault of his own. Denis ORegan is a very interesting booking and one I feel will suit the horse and for me he has a really strong chance today.

  Bet on Im So Lucky at 13.00

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(18/03 14:40) 2:40 Cheltenham : Albertas Run EW @ 17.00

Horse Racing

Course form has been key to this race in recent times with all four previous winners already successful at the course. Poquelin fits the bill then for Nicholls and Walsh and bids to follow up his course and distance win in the Boylesports Gold Cup back in December. That capped a golden few months for him over this C&D featuring a 2nd in the Paddy Power as well as another win back in October. He seems suited by most types of ground but is said to be at his best on good so todays conditions are sure to suit. Quite whether he is up to Grade 1 level remains to be seen but he cannot run in handicaps anymore having on convincingly off 151 and can be expected to go well at the very least. He is closely matched on Paddy Power form with TRANQUIL SEA but I expect the Irish raider will come out on top once more having gone on to run very well in Graded races over shorter trips since. He finished 2nd to Golden Silver in a Grade 1 in December, just being done for speed and then won in impressive style at the same venue from a rejuvenated Natal. Back over this trip he could prove to be very good indeed and has a big chance if even reproducing that Paddy Power form having won off a mark of 148. It isnt just the fact that he won but that he did it with such ease. It was apparenta long way out that he was going to take all the beating and he swept to the lead on the bridle with only Poquelin able to make late but futile in roads into his lead. The fact he has gone on to hold his own and indeed win in graded contests since suggests that he has taken the step into the top echelon in his stride and it really shouldnt be that much of a surprise given that he was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles. That Grade 1 hurdles win came on ground too which is encouraging for tomorrow and as around a 9/2 shot he looks reasonably bombproof. There are of course a number of challengers and Barbers Shop heads another barrage of Nicky Henderson horses. He is a horse that has always looked capable of winning a good race but hasnt quite done it yet. I would say that because he failed to win the Paddy Power off a mark of 142 and Tranquil Sea did it so easily off 148 would suggest that at the same stage that the latter is the better horse and with Barbers Shops only win since then having cme in a weakish conditions race, he is worth overlooking. Last years odds on favourite and course specialist Voy Por Ustedes comes back for his 4th festival and the former Arkle and Champion Chase winner rana fine race in this last year albeit a bit disappointing in relation to his odds. It was ultimately some bad errors that cost him on that occasion and jumping frailties have been something that has blighted his recent performances. That said, his form on unfavourable terms at Ascot in November would suggest that he isnt done with yet and since then he has raced over 3m and 2m of which we know now that neither is his optimum. He always looked made for this race and if first time blinkers perk him up then he could be a silly price at 16/1. Planet Of Sound is another who has been let down by his jumping lately having looked really promising earlier in the season. He is yet to prove that he stays this and that he can put in a clear round but his class as advertised when the pair that finished in front of him in the Arkle filled the placings in the Champion Chase yesterday. Nicky Henderso has another couple as mentioned and for the first time we see Petit Robin over this trip. He was put in his place by Twist Magic last time and his trainer has said that he could be made for this race. He has said the exact same thing about Barbers Shop though and personally I dont either are quite up to it one what they have shown. His 3rd runner is Jack The Giant, a horse I love but one that has had his problems. He would need a career best to be winning this, which would be a possibility having had a smooth preparation but not after such a long layoff. Deep Purple is a very big price if forgiving his King George run in which he had excuses. He can go well fresh and loves this ground so quite why he is 25/1 is beyond me. He has yet to do it at this track which is a negative but hasnt had many tries either. Schindlers Hunt cant be ruled out either but he is one that is more likely to run a relly good race in defeat than actually win. The horse I have been deliberating over for a long time in the race is ALBERTAS RUN, who has shown this season that he is back to somewhere near his best after a bit of a quite year last time round. What we need to remember is that he doesnt often get his conditions but when he does he is capable of top class performances. His record on good ground reads 0112113231 and at Cheltenham it is 2 from 4 with his only defeats there coming in the Champion Bumper and the Gold Cup. His defeats on good ground too have generally come against some of the best horses around at the time including Tidal Bay, Big Bucks, Kauto Star and Madison Du Berlais. With all these things in mind and given we arent expecting rain until Friday and I would say Tony McCoys mount and former RSA Chase winner has a storming chance in this at a cracking price. I will then be backing both Tranqil Sea and Albertas Run.

  Bet on Albertas Run at 17.00

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(18/03 14:40) 2:40 Cheltenham : Tranquil Sea Win @ 5.66

Horse Racing

Course form has been key to this race in recent times with all four previous winners already successful at the course. Poquelin fits the bill then for Nicholls and Walsh and bids to follow up his course and distance win in the Boylesports Gold Cup back in December. That capped a golden few months for him over this C&D featuring a 2nd in the Paddy Power as well as another win back in October. He seems suited by most types of ground but is said to be at his best on good so todays conditions are sure to suit. Quite whether he is up to Grade 1 level remains to be seen but he cannot run in handicaps anymore having on convincingly off 151 and can be expected to go well at the very least. He is closely matched on Paddy Power form with TRANQUIL SEA but I expect the Irish raider will come out on top once more having gone on to run very well in Graded races over shorter trips since. He finished 2nd to Golden Silver in a Grade 1 in December, just being done for speed and then won in impressive style at the same venue from a rejuvenated Natal. Back over this trip he could prove to be very good indeed and has a big chance if even reproducing that Paddy Power form having won off a mark of 148. It isnt just the fact that he won but that he did it with such ease. It was apparenta long way out that he was going to take all the beating and he swept to the lead on the bridle with only Poquelin able to make late but futile in roads into his lead. The fact he has gone on to hold his own and indeed win in graded contests since suggests that he has taken the step into the top echelon in his stride and it really shouldnt be that much of a surprise given that he was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles. That Grade 1 hurdles win came on ground too which is encouraging for tomorrow and as around a 9/2 shot he looks reasonably bombproof. There are of course a number of challengers and Barbers Shop heads another barrage of Nicky Henderson horses. He is a horse that has always looked capable of winning a good race but hasnt quite done it yet. I would say that because he failed to win the Paddy Power off a mark of 142 and Tranquil Sea did it so easily off 148 would suggest that at the same stage that the latter is the better horse and with Barbers Shops only win since then having cme in a weakish conditions race, he is worth overlooking. Last years odds on favourite and course specialist Voy Por Ustedes comes back for his 4th festival and the former Arkle and Champion Chase winner rana fine race in this last year albeit a bit disappointing in relation to his odds. It was ultimately some bad errors that cost him on that occasion and jumping frailties have been something that has blighted his recent performances. That said, his form on unfavourable terms at Ascot in November would suggest that he isnt done with yet and since then he has raced over 3m and 2m of which we know now that neither is his optimum. He always looked made for this race and if first time blinkers perk him up then he could be a silly price at 16/1. Planet Of Sound is another who has been let down by his jumping lately having looked really promising earlier in the season. He is yet to prove that he stays this and that he can put in a clear round but his class as advertised when the pair that finished in front of him in the Arkle filled the placings in the Champion Chase yesterday. Nicky Henderso has another couple as mentioned and for the first time we see Petit Robin over this trip. He was put in his place by Twist Magic last time and his trainer has said that he could be made for this race. He has said the exact same thing about Barbers Shop though and personally I dont either are quite up to it one what they have shown. His 3rd runner is Jack The Giant, a horse I love but one that has had his problems. He would need a career best to be winning this, which would be a possibility having had a smooth preparation but not after such a long layoff. Deep Purple is a very big price if forgiving his King George run in which he had excuses. He can go well fresh and loves this ground so quite why he is 25/1 is beyond me. He has yet to do it at this track which is a negative but hasnt had many tries either. Schindlers Hunt cant be ruled out either but he is one that is more likely to run a relly good race in defeat than actually win. The horse I have been deliberating over for a long time in the race is ALBERTAS RUN, who has shown this season that he is back to somewhere near his best after a bit of a quite year last time round. What we need to remember is that he doesnt often get his conditions but when he does he is capable of top class performances. His record on good ground reads 0112113231 and at Cheltenham it is 2 from 4 with his only defeats there coming in the Champion Bumper and the Gold Cup. His defeats on good ground too have generally come against some of the best horses around at the time including Tidal Bay, Big Bucks, Kauto Star and Madison Du Berlais. With all these things in mind and given we arent expecting rain until Friday and I would say Tony McCoys mount and former RSA Chase winner has a storming chance in this at a cracking price. I will then be backing both Tranqil Sea and Albertas Run.

  Bet on Tranquil Sea at 5.66

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(18/03 14:05) 2:05 Cheltenham : Cross Kennon EW @ 26.65

Horse Racing

Another Nicholls horse that I would rather not be with at the price as although he did the job nicely enough last time, a 17lb rise should be more than enough to stop him winning what is a much stronger race especially for one so inexperience and having only his 5th career start. Ainama is a tricky one to assess as he looked in need of the run when making his reappearance in November but has had nearly a 4 month break since. He does go well fresh but I would have some slight stamina concerns as he would be yet to even win beyond 2 miles over hurdles although he dd run a very good race over 2m4f at Aintree last April. McCoy is on board and he is one of the more unexposed ones but I would also have reservations about just how well handicapped he is. Every season Buena Vista seems to come good at the festival and he did again last year when finishing 2nd in this race off todays mark. A reproduction would probably see him go close again but he has never been one to be relied upon and his osing run now stretches back almost 3 years. Smoking Aces and Prince Erik come over from Ireland to have a go and the latter would seriously need some rain to be at his best which he looks unlikely to get before tomorrow. Smoking Aces also prefers deep ground but shaped last time over 2m4f as if further would suit him and the ground could help him see it out if he handles it. The consistent Fredo was an impressive winner last time on the back of a number of sound efforts but the handicapper has put him up a stone for that and he would have it all to do here on very different ground to which to encountered last time. I am quite the fan of last time out winners in handicaps at Cheltenham and they have a particularly good record in this race managing 64% of winners of this race since 1995 from only 19% representation. That is quite a overwhelming stat and one worth noting if you fancy one of them. As it happens I do fancy one and a long priced one at that in CROSS KENNON who represents the relatively unfashionable Jennie Candlish yard. This horse started off his winning spree a year ago in 0-85 company when winning by 22 lengths off a platersmark of 72. The fact that he as beaten next time when looking very well treated under a penalty suggested that effort was a fluke. That was certainly not the case though and perhaps that race came too soon as he has sinc racked up a 4 timer taking each rise in class in his stride and the way he won after his latest rise to a mark of 120 marks him down as a serious improver this season. He is a horse proven in all conditions having won on good ground as well as heavy and although he is up 12lbs to another career high mark, there is no telling really where the ceiling of his ability and is at the right end of the weights for his step up to this level. One thing he definitely has on his side is his stamina and I see no reason why he wont act on this track. As a horse seeking a 5 timer he looks far too big in the market and I would fancy him to make a big splash thrown in at the deep end here.

  Bet on Cross Kennon at 26.65

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(18/03 13:30) 1:30 Cheltenham : Nicanor Win @ 15.00

Horse Racing

A number of horses have been laid out for a crack at this race including the Nicholls trained Rivaliste who has made a good impression on his 2 starts in this country to date. I would say that the form of his narrow defeat last time is below the standard required to be competitive here. He is up 6lbs here and Paul Nicholls has kept him away from the track to preserve his mark for this race but there is no doubt that he needs to fnd improvement. He had a similar sort contest this race in 2008 called Arturio and he was pulled up so cant fancy him as favourite. Ferdy Murphy has enhanced his excellent Cheltenham record already with Poker Di Sivola winning the 4 miler yesterday and The Hollinwell is one that bids to emulate LAntartiques success in this race in 2007. Chasing has been the making of this horse and he is 2 from 3 this season tasting defeat only at the hands of Abbeybraney to whom he was conceding 9lbs. Given the ease in which he takes his fences it is difficult to see this one not being involved and the fact he has been targeted at this race is only a further positive given his shrewd trainer. Nicky Henderson like many of the handicaps this year has multiple entries and it appears as though Daves Dream is his first string as the red hot Barry Geraghty is aboard. He is expected to improve on the better ground he encounters today ad he did make a rather nice chasing debut early on in the season. A slight negative is that he has been well beaten at Cheltenham twice and has never tried a trip this far yet. That said, he was relatively inexperienced when tackling the County Hurdle and another handicap after that so he can be expected to handle things better this time. The Irish have a reasonably strong bunch this year with China Rock leading them having plyed his trade in Graded races on heavy ground this season. He was good enough to finish 4th in the Neptune Investments Hurdle here last year and is a better horse on good ground. He is a classy individual on his day and given his much better record on this type of ground he looks to have a solid chance here off what looks a fair mark. Jered would also be thrown in if he were able to match the form he showed over hurdles. A one time Grade 1 winner in that sphere, he has won 1 race over fences, a beginners chase at Punchestown which has worked out really quite well. Since then he has been well beaten upped in class and his stamina fr this trip is far from proven so quite what to expect with first time blinkers applied is anyones guess. I think Noel Meade could come away with this race though but with his other runner NICANOR. A horse I have loyally followed since he turned over Denman for me over this C&D in the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle of 2005. He made his comeback from 3 years off the track last season and has slowly been on his way back ever since. He had begun to become frustrating over fences thi year seemingly finding one to beat him on every outing, but time has shown that he has been beaten by some very good horses including Kempes and An Cathoir Nor amongst others, those two of which have gone on to win a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 respectively. He finally got off the mark in good style last time, travelling up very sweetly to take over 2 out before tying up slightly on the run in which his trainer put down to the very testing ground. He beat a subsequent winner that day too and his weak finishing has been a trait displayed in all his races this season. It is no coincidence then that all of his runs have come in heavy ground and Noel Meade has stated that he is a much better horse granted sounder conditions. That was the case when he won his 2 Grade 1s including here and at Punchestown as a novice hurdler and it could be tht he is ready to rekindle a good deal of his old spark on the return to his finest hour with fast conditions likely. Other contenders include Hey Big Spender for the Tizzards who bagged the bumper winner yesterday and he is a horse that hasnt stopped improving all season. He may just have a bit too much weight here but it wouldnt surprise to him make a bold bid over a C&D he was so impressive at last time. Copper Bleu and The Midnight Club have potential too if they were able to fulfil the promise they showed over hurdles at the Festival last year. Neither has made the smoothest of transitions to chasing but could just be slow learners and like many others are open to improvement.

  Bet on Nicanor at 15.00

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(17/03 16:40) 4:40 Cheltenham : Hunterview Win nb @ 9.50

Horse Racing

This race can be one of the most difficult to assess with it being mostly lightly raced juveniles contesting. Notus De La Tour was very impressive when winning on his British debut beating Ranjobaie whohas boosted the form twice since. He has enough weight but is clearly very talented and could go very well. It is very interesting though that stable jockey Tom Scudamore elects to ride HUNTERVIEW who was beaten on his first 2 starts over hurdles (a statistic which has given us all 5 winners) but scored last time, knuckling down really well to get off the mark at Warwick. His flat ability would mean he wouldnt be out of place in the Triumph as he was rated 93 when signing off for Michael Jarvis last year. This better ground should suit him and the fact the blinkers are back on here which helped him so much on the flat is very significant to me on this, his handicap debut.

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(17/03 16:00) 4:00 Cheltenham : On Raglan Road EW @ 19.05

Horse Racing

I have to be with On Raglan Rad here for Howard Johnson as before his injury he was a horse that was really going places. He has reportedly made a full recovery and is working really well at home so if he is back to the form that saw him finish 4h in the Albert Bartlett last year then he should be well capable of making a big splash off a mark of 140. Either side of that Cheltenham effort he was going well when falling late on in 2 very strong races so he is a horse that clearly has a tremendous amount of ability. Howard Johnson rates him as the best horsein his stable and if that is brought to the course today he could look pretty big at 16/1

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(17/03 14:05) 2:05 Cheltenham : Peddlers Cross Win @ 8.00

Horse Racing

It never ceases to amaze me, the quality of each and ever race at this meeting and we have anothr one here. The race has benefitted by the fact connections of Rite Of Passage decided to swerve Dunguib to come here instead. He was 3rd in the Bumper here last year behind Dunguib and since has gone on to become a very useful horse on the flat winning the Leopardstown November Handicap by a wide margin on his last outing in that code. He has been going about his business quietly in novice hurdles this season and has got the job done in impressive enough style on 2 occasions so far. I just have to question exactly what he has beaten in those heavy ground races. Apart from Healys Bar who is no doubt flattered by his rating of 144 the form doesnt amount to much and this will be a much more exacting test. On the other hand, he has shown he has tremendous ability in bumpers and o the flat and also a liking for this course so it wouldnt be a surprise were he to rise to the occasion. This race also features last seasons bumper 4th Quel Esprit who is very highly regarded by Willie Mullins which is probably half the reason why he has been sent off long odds on on all outings this season. He looked very good at Cork when winning very easily over 3m on heavy ground but was turned over last time back in trip by the smart Coole River. It could just be that he needs a real stamina test as he has definitely been at his most impressive this season when getting one so this trip on good ground is a big concern for him as there are plenty of horses lining up who are not short of a bit of toe. The same can be said for Reve Di Sivola, who stayed on dourly to land the Challow Hurdle last time in bog like conditions but may be tapped for speed on good ground. Another concern for that one would be his jumping, which at times can be sloppy and therefore cause him to get too far behind. Despite an abysmal record in this race Nicky Henderson must be confident of his chances with Finians Rainbow who was 3rd in that Challow Hurdle but who travelled like the good horse he is in that race before being bogged down by the conditions. He stuck on in likeable fashion to pushed the other two right to the line and there is no doubt he will find this ground more to his liking. He has proved he stays and on his other 2 starts was extremely impressive in seeing off lesser opposition. He is a big player in this and can go close to breaking Nicky Hendersons 0-20 duck. Interestingly Donald McCain opted to come here with PEDDLERS CROSS instead of the Supreme and I think that would have something to do with the ground as on softish ground he may have had th speed to be competitive in a strongly run Supreme but in this fast surface connections are very confident of him seeing out the trip. It is difficult to knock a horse that is unbeaten and yet to be asked any questions. He was the winner of his bumper which was a very impressive performance 1st time out this year and he won again very easily on his hurdling debut. He got his first test in an admittedly weak Grade 2 at Haydock last time but he wasnt favourite for that as Nicky Hendersons very progressive Radium also took his chance along with the frustrating but very useful Scriptwriter. Both of those were rated in the 130s going into the race and Peddlers Cross laughed at them putting up a performance that would suggest his rating of 148 is probably about right. After just 4 starts he is clearly still going to be improving and as a 2m1f soft ground bumper winner and a 2m4f point winner it is reasonable to expect further improvement now he tackles further. He is held in the highest regard by his astute trainer and this £100,000 purchase is th danger to the lot if handling the big occasion. The rest certainly arent deadwood eithr with th likes of Summit Meeting, Ghizao and Some Present all worthy of respect having shown somevery smart form. Manyriverstocross wouldnt be far away on his best form either having ran a blinder in the Totesprt Trophy last time which has been boosted by Get Me Out Of Here yesterday. A very interesting one at a huge price is The Knoxs for Howard Johnson who won this for the Wylies back in 2005 with No Refuge. Another horse that is unbeaten in completed starts, he has won his 2 races very nicely. His debut was over 2 miles in which he shaped very much as if a longer trip would suit and then last time he saw off a subsequent Grade 2 winner in Wymott over 3m with the pair well clear of th rest both carrying penalies. This intermediate trip then would hold no fears given that it should be a strong pace and he must have some sort of chance on the form he has shown. The fact he won on good to soft ground on his debut over 2m would give little concern for conditions here too and he could be well worth each way consideration.

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(17/03 13:30) 1:30 Cheltenham : Pennek EW @ 29.00

Horse Racing

Always a brilliant spectacle to see these novices tackle this gruelling examination of stamina and jumping. It has been a good race for the bookies in recent years and it is no real surprise as most of them are entering unchartered territory as regards trip by at least a mile. Jonjo ONeill has an excellent record in the race having saddled 4 out of the last 9 winners. Have just noticed that his horse Synchronised is a non runner though so he wont be improving his record this year. That leaves Irish challenger Becauseicouldntsee as favourite and he was mighty impressive when getting off the mark over fences last time in a race which has worked out well with a late faller coming out and winning by a wide margin. He has never tackled even as far as 3m though so there is just too much trust involved in him seeing this out and he is relatively inexperienced too. Abbeybraney has to be a strong contender as he is thought of by connection as there Grand National horse for the next few years and he has some very smart form to his name so far over fences. He was 2nd to none other than Notre Pere as a novice a few years back and whilst he has been lightly raced recently (3 starts in 2 years) things do seem to have gone more smoothly this time round and he comes here off the back of agood win against a horse that is contesting favouritism for the Jewson tomorrow. His overall strike rate isnt impressive but he looks to have bottomless stamina so will be a big threat to all today. A bit of hurdles class gives this race a bit more spice and is offered up by Pettifour and Mobaasher who were both rated in excess of 150 in that sphere. The latter seems the one that has taken to fences the best and won comfortably last time at Plumpton from a decent sort. He does have the habit of throwing in the odd stinker which is a bit worrying on the back of a couple of pretty good runs and he certainly has his quirks (has to be kidded along through races) which probably means that he is best suited to being ridden by a professional that knows him rather than an amateur rider up for the first time. Any Currency and Massasoit have run well in good handicaps recently and both promise to stay but the former looks held off a mark of 132 at the moment which wouldnt be good enough here and the latter is a very quirky sort who like Mobaasher can prove a very tricky ride. That said if the blinkers do the job for him again this time he will have every chance and we will just have to see whether he sticks his neck out in a battle, because he has failed in that respect thus far. Fabalu would be of more interest if the ground wasnt so quick and as a result I am going to take a punt with PENNEK for Alan King who won this race with a similarly slow sort in Old Benny 2 years ago. That one had a similar profile in that he had found things difficult over conventional trips but the transformation when tackling this 4m round Cheltenham was alarming. Even his trainer admits that Pennek is a slow horse and whilst he hasnt pulled up any trees over fences so far, his jumping has improved from race to race. He has arguably been running at tracks too which are a bit too sharp for him like Bangor and Southwell and he has generally always ran well round here without winning, his finest hour coming when staying on relentlessly for 3rd in the Pertemps Final last year. He coud well be transformed by this strongly run race and the extra distance and whilst he may well get outpaced at some stage, I would be surprised if he wasnt finishing to good effect at the death. Whether he will be close enough to strike at the time remains to be seen but the ground shouldnt be a problem and I dont mind taking a chance on a horse that has had this as his target for a long time now at odds of 25/1. I think he has a big chance and having one of the best amateur riders in the race on board in young Joshua Moore can only boost confidence.

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(17/03 14:40) 2:40 Cheltenham : Punchestowns Win nap @ 4.00

Horse Racing

It has to be said that this year looks a vintage one for staying novice chasers. I would seriously expect at least 4 of these horses to be lining up in next years Gold Cup brring accidents, but what will emerge victorious today. Im sure Nicky Henderson will be devastated if one of his 3 top prospects lining up here doesnt do the business and he saddles the first two in the betting here. Long Run arrived from France this year will a tall reputation having contested graded contests over there but the hype was fully justified when he overcame a number of significant blunders to turn the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton into a procession. He then showed enough speed to win over 2 miles last time in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick. He does remind very much of a young Kauto Star, who was also quick enough to win over 2 miles but as a novice and indeed against the big boys. But he didnt tackle such an exacting test so early on in his career and I think that is what ultimately will find this one out. It may be just coincidence but winners of the Feltham have a horrible record in this race and I think that is probably to do with the very different nature of the two tracks. He is yet to run on a track with the ideosyncracies that Cheltenham has and this is likely to be a serious test of stamina. 5yos used to also be given a hefty 10lb weight allowance which no doubt helped StarDe Mohaison win it in 2006 but he gets 1lb today and I just think it will be all too much for one so young, especially with those doubts about his jumping. One thing that will not stop him and shouldnt be used as an excuse if he does get beat is the jockey because Sam Waley Cohen is one of the most accomplished amateurs around and rides Cheltenham brilliantly, not to mention the fact he is 2 from 2 on the horse. I have to say that I much prefer PUNCHESTOWNS of the two as he was the best staying hurdler around last season bar Big Bucks and he has taken very well to fences. His 2 wins have come over 2m4f and 2m5f but he won the Long Walk Hurdle over a furlong further last season and twice chased home Big Bucks over the C&D including in the World Hurdle. He also has winning form at this course having sauntered away with a handicap off 139 early on last season. He is a top class racehorse and was particularly impressive last time against useful yardstick Tchico Polos. He actually made a very bad mistake 4 out in that race and Barry Geraghty had to be patient with him, but he ranged upsides going ominously well at the 2nd last and went away easily as if nothing had happened. Obviously it is worrying when novice chasers make those sort of mistakes but it was one that was out of character as generally he has jumped extremely well. I think the good even gallop we will get today will help him also and I cant actually believe that this horse isnt going off favourite as for me he looks bombproof unless his stablemate is some kind of freak. One that wouldnt be far off his ability over hurdles though is Diamond Harry who switched to fences a bit late on this year but took to it well when winning easily on debut at Haydock. His main rival Bensalem fell that day when making his challenge and then managed to run him close at Newbury next time where Diamond Harry wasnt quite as convincing at his fences. He has a very good record round Cheltenham but I would just question whether he is ready for this sort of test as he wouldnt really have had to battle on many occasions and he can still show some waywayrd tendencies when contesting a finish. He is still improving as a horse and can go on to better things but I doubt whether today will be his day, especially on the fastest ground he has encountered. With a few fancied contenders pulling out late on the race doesnt quite have that same aura it did a month ago and as a result Burton Port finds himself quietly fancied at 12/1. He is unbeaten over fences in 4 starts and has amassed a rating of 156 which looks slightly flattering. He has done little wrong but would have quite a lot to find with some of these on hurdles form and was comfortably held by Diamond Harry in that sphere in receipt of over a stone earlier in the year. The main Irish challenge this year after they took it with Cooldine is from Weapons Amnesty who has been contesting some very good races in Ireland on heavy ground. He has come off 2nd best the last twice but was beaten by a very good horse in Pandorama 2 starts ago and perhaps found the 2m5f a bit sharp last time when teh reopposing Citizen Vic beat him. He was a winner of the Albert Bartlett last season so clearly acts round here and will be staying on better than any at the business end. It would surprise me though if this ground would bring out the best of him and he could just be caught out for a change of pace on it. Not much else to crow about really, Citizen Vic has improved almost beyond recognition but is yet to prove that he stays this far or handles the ground. Knockara Beau is many peoples idea of an each way bet in this but I think he has been beaten too many times and by too many of these to say that he can seriously be involved. Should be a terrific race and I hope they all run their races and return safe and sound.

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