(05/07 15:20) 3:20 Sandown : Stotsfold EW @ 34.00

Horse Racing

I simply cant believe the betting for this race. Mount Nelson hasnt won in 2 years and is surely only as short as 7/2 because of the current form of Coolmore. With Aiden Obriens horses hoovering up the big races this season, as per normal, plus this looking not only a substandard renewal of the Eclipse but also a very tough race to pick the winner, the only playable angle Im interested in is the place market on Betfair; mainly because of the price of Stotsfold being over 5/1 and it might well go higher just before the off. The way I see it, Phoenix Tower is 7/2 off the back of finishing 4 lengths behind Duke Of Marmalade in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Ascot last month, Pipedreamer was a shoulder behind and is 5/1 for todays race, Stotsfold was only 2 lengths back in the Prince Of Wales Stakes having started from a poor draw and was plum last coming into the home straight and having to go around the field, he managed to finish only 2 lengths behind Phoenix Tower so Im surprised to see Stotsfold start at 33/1 and Phoenix Tower at 7/2; this being the case, I reckon Stotsfold has a decent chance of finishing in the top 3. I will also be placing the follwing 2 straight forcasts: Phoenix Tower to beat Stosfold and Monunt Nelson to beat Stosfold, if either of the forecast oblige, you get aggregated odds of around 40/1, which I think also represents value.

0 Comments and 22 Views

(24/05 15:00) Bristol City v Hull : Hull Win @ 2.40

Championship

I remember saying to my Palace bretheren weeks ago that I hoped we got either Watford or Bristol in the semi finals of the playoffs, mainly because I rated Hull as the toughest team out of those involved, including Palace. I felt our best chance was in the final where we only needed to beat them over 90 minutes. I still feel the same way and reckon Bristol will have to put in an improved performance than the one they gave in the 2nd leg of the playoff semis. The form team usually win the playoffs and out of the 2 remaining, Hull definitely fit that profile.

3 Comments and 138 Views

(23/05 16:40) 4:40 Newmarket : Mad Rush Win nap @ 3.00

Horse Racing

I think because of Punjabis hype, we are likely to get a better than expected price for Mad Rush, I believe his current odds of 2/1 still represent value and I shall be backing him to small stakes.

1 Comments and 31 Views

(21/05 19:45) Man Utd v Chelsea : Cristiano Ronaldo Win @ 6.00

Champ League

I do think there will be goals in this game, there have been very few 0-0 matches when these two have played each other in recent times. Im not a big fan of the gimmicky bets that bookmakers offer for big games like this, they normally represent poor value; but I think Ive found a half decent bet!

The best price I can see for Ronaldo to score anytime (within 90 minutes) is 15/8, but Ladbrokes have a To score from outside the box (ET does not count) market and Cristiano Ronaldo is 6/1 to score anytime from outside the box. Now Im pretty sure he will be the main threat from freekicks and in a game where it could be decided by an unstoppable goal, the current top scorer in the CL could be the man to deliver once again. I could see him scoring a freekick if they were to play 5 finals in Moscow so I think the 6/1 with Laddies represents good value.

A small fun bet that should keep me oooohing and aaaaahing until at least the end of normal time.

Cristiano Ronaldo to score from outside the box (ET does not count) @ 6/1

0 Comments and 92 Views

(13/03 14:55) 2:55 Cheltenham : The Listener Win @ 4.50

Horse Racing

The Listener is proving himself to be one of the best 2 1/2 miles chasers in training; yes, his form at longer trips is decent but his best performances on the clock have been at todays trip where he routinely runs fast enough to win a truly run Group 1 race. If we see the same Listener as we did at Punchestown earlier on in the season when he went the same distance as he does today, I reckon he will absolutely bury the opposition. Strong fancy and one of my biggest bets of this National Hunt season.

0 Comments and 132 Views

(13/03 15:30) 3:30 Cheltenham : Kasbah Bliss Win @ 11.00

Horse Racing

Kasbah Bliss has some very useful form when racing in France, infact he was one of only two horses to beat 3 time Group 1 winner Mid Dancer the French champion horse; it has taken some time for Kasbah Bliss to get used to his new environment and regime, but now he has, he is looking as good as ever and I believe he is underrated by most UK punters who undervalue his French form. Inglis Drever is a multiple festival winner who has to be respected, but hes now 9 years old and no World Hurdle winner in the last decade has been that old. I have to admit, Id love to see Inglis Drever make it 3 wins at the festival, but at 5/4 against I feel Kasbah Bliss is a much more attractive betting medium

0 Comments and 163 Views

(13/03 14:20) 2:20 Cheltenham : Voy Por Ustedes Win nb @ SP

Horse Racing

14 of the last 23 Champion Chase winners had previously won at the festival before and I think theres every chance of it being 15 from 24 thanks to Voy Por Ustedes who saves his best for Cheltenham which is obvious from his record where he has won two big races at the festival and finished a neck 2nd on his seasonal reappearence in a mere prep race where he undoubtedly was unfit. Im not worried about Master Minded as I think Voy Por Ustedes will easily reverse the form of his last race where Master Minded was gifted a soft lead in a race which wasnt run to suit Alan Kings horse due to the slow early pace and sprint to the line. Note with interest that Voy Por Ustedes was eating up the ground once his stamina kicked in at newbury and would have won had there been a more searching early pace. Tamarinbleu will have to post a lifetime best effort to be involved at the finsh, and although he could be good enough to feature, I think he has had a long hard successful season and a sensationally hard race last time out, he might have peaked for the season already; the ground will be drying out and that wont suit him either. I have doubts whether Twist Magic will be able to handle the fast pace that is ensured in the Champion Chase, it found out Kauto Star and Well Chief in the last 2 renewals and I think Twist Magic will be struggling to last home off such a strong pace, just like he struggled when Tamarinbleu set a strong pace in testing conditions. Mansony has done nothing outside of Ireland so he wont be carrying any of my money until he proves he travels well. Newmill hasnt done anything recently to show he can still be competitive at this level, he is respected for being a previous festival winner but passed over for lack of recent form.

0 Comments and 243 Views

(13/03 17:50) 5:50 Cheltenham : Zaarito Win nap @ 5.00

Horse Racing

The Irish have won this race 12 out of the last 15 renewals which is no surprise as Irish Bumper races are fiercly competitive due to the good money that attracts Irish trainers to develop seriously good bumper horses, much moreso than their English counterparts, so it definitely pays to side with the top Irish trainers in this type of race. Noel Meade and Willie Mullins are both represented with a number of talented horses, but it might be worth siding against them and going with Colm Murphys Zaarito as he looks to be something very special. Willie Mullins has already stated that he fancies Zaarito and thinks his horses will struggle against him based on form lines with other horses in his stable; Noel Meade has two very talented horses in the race, Corskeagh Royale and Cottage Oak, the former would undoubtedly prefer more cut in the ground and Cottage Oak looks to be outclassed by his stable companion at very least. It seems both Meade and Mullins seriously rate Zaarito and his trainer sounded bullish when saying “He is really well. He’ll travel over on Monday night. He is as well as we’ve ever had him”. I think Zaarito deserves to be at the front of the betting market and the 4/1 currently on offer represents a huge each way steal with bookmakers offering 1/3 the odds over 4 places, I cannot see him finishing outside the first four and believe hes a good thing to score impressively. Because the OLBG tipster competition will most likely be settled using 1/4 the odds on the place, I am choosing to reduce my stakes and bet on the nose.

0 Comments and 188 Views

(13/03 13:05) 1:05 Cheltenham : Pomme Tiepy EW @ 6.00

Horse Racing

Pomme Tiepy is Willie Mullins second best horse he is bringing to the festival, this season she has been ultra consistent by winning all four of her starts by wide margins and although the stats are against her where she is only 5 years old, its hard to fault her gameness as she has placed in her last 7 races, winning most of them. I think she has an excellent chance of winning this race and really cannot see her finishing outside the top 3. In real life Im placing 75% of my stake on the place and the remainder on the win.

0 Comments and 259 Views

(12/03 14:35) 2:35 Cheltenham : Pomme Tiepy EW @ 6.00

Horse Racing

Pomme Tiepy is Willie Mullins second best horse he is bringing to the festival, this season she has been ultra consistent by winning all four of her starts by wide margins and although the stats are against her where she is only 5 years old, its hard to fault her gameness as she has placed in her last 7 races, winning most of them. I think she has an excellent chance of winning this race and really cannot see her finishing outside the top 3. In real life Im placing 75% of my stake on the place and the remainder on the win.

0 Comments and 135 Views