(17/03 16:00) 4:00 Cheltenham : Shadow Dancer Win nap @ 17.00

Horse Racing

Both James De Vassey and Lake Legend are very temptiong at the prices but Shadown Dancer has only just got into this race, is carrying but a feathereight and has a decent claimer on board it appears making him so light he should have no stamina doubts whatsoever. This looks like ()bar Binocular), the plot horse of the festival. very cleverly ridden by Tony Mccot last time out he had to do nothing on the horse, but patiently ride him round waiting for the moment to just nick ahead of fruity O rooney to score the win. the gamble was getting into this race off the back of the small rise he would get off the back of the victory. it would look like it has panned out just as plotted and whilst i am keen on the aforemetioned pair, Shadow Dancer looks a really good opportunity. i may have read this all wrong, but there is every chance this one is thrown in some 20lbs light his real ability

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(17/03 13:30) 1:30 Cheltenham : Presenting Forever Win @ 17.15

Horse Racing

Massaaiot and Any Currency are toward the head of the market, and given what they have achieved in the run up to this event, there would not be denied the positions look justified, especially Any Currency now, given how close he got the The Package recently. but i am looking a little further down the betting and supposed pecking order at the mount of Olloie Greenall. He rides for Howard-Johnson and Presenting Forever. only twice seen over fences this is a nice trip for him im sure, and only going doewn six lengths to Wogan after winning his debut over fences, the latter has gone on to impress in much better comapny since grnking the form of the January run somewhat. he will have to get all the assistance he can get from his rider, but any mistakes up ahead, this one jumps ewll and looks like he should be suited by the 4m trip.

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(17/03 16:40) 4:40 Cheltenham : Bothy Win @ 16.68

Horse Racing

A nightmare of a race to try to find the winner in, these novices are just on the way up and are subject to varying levels of improvement. Two that have caught my eye include the Nichols trained Sanctuaire, and whilst i really do rate this ones chances, i shall be leaving him alone at his privce aof around 13/2. I dont believe anything in this race should be shorter than 9/1 and as such he offers no value. Instead i will go for Bothy to continue his good run and improvement. Doing littlewrong aif anything to be honest in the uild up to this race his price justifies investment given what he is likelt ot be capable of.

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(16/03 15:20) 3:20 Cheltenham : Zaynar Win nap @ 11.00

Horse Racing

The Champion Hurdle

This has been on of the ost talked about and most discussed races in the run up to the Festival. The form has come and gone, some good, some bad, and the market hass not stood still for five minutes. Once fancied runners disappointing on pre fectival outings and otehrs not getting to the course due to the weather, but one thing is for sure, this is shaping up to be one the races of the week. The shortlist can pretty much include all but a couple of the entries and working through the form of these runners is a minefield, with one line contradicting another at many stages of the research. So lets look at each of the main runners to see if we can shed some light on which way the trophy will go in 2010.

Go Native has long been in and around the favourites position but due to the form of others we have seen since christmas has now filled the position at the head of the market. We have seen him four time on the course this season, the only time he has failed to come home first was in Ireland when finishing a wellbeaten second as it was to Voler De Vedette at Down Royal. Some have come out in defence of that performance and saud that he wasnt fully fit for the run, but bearing in mind he had made his seasonal debut only four weeks earlier at Tipperary wining with ease in a small field, I dont quite buy into it. I cant put my finger on exactly what it was, but he was soundly beaten in the end and it worries me. He has of course since come back to win the fighting fifth, with the like of Sublimity and Solwhit in behind, and then the Christamas Hurdle at Kempton beating the likes of Binocular and Starluck into second place. So against rival he will probably face again here he has some oneupmanship. He has shown he can handle the idiosyncrasis of the Cheltenham course by winning the Supreme Novices here on day one last year, although, and here is where I get shot down, I dont think it was the best Supreme Novices we have had in recent time. He has of course come on since then, and he is a main contender for sure. Around the 10/3 mark, I would like to see a bit of 4/1 maybe 9/2 to seriously consider getting involved.

Solwhit as we have already mentoned found Go Native too good at Newcastle, but has since returned to win twice at Leopardstown, betaing Sublimity twice and Celestial Halo by a margin when Paul nichols sent him over for the Irish Champion Hurdle. The defeat by Go Native was his only defeat in seven races, and in fact he has now won 8 of his last 10. I think he will be suited to the track at Cheltenham, and its worth noting that he was held up in the Fighting Fifth. A position that he doesnt usually take. Im not totally convinced we saw the best of him that day, and it may have been the way the race was run rather than his rivals that best him that day, I think he has an excellent chance and would have him ahead of Go Native in the book. Thats not to say i would bet him at 10/3, but I think he has every chance of reversing the Fighting Fifth form.

One that only came into contention for this race really a coupe of runs ago was Khyber Kim when winning the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham. Not unfancied on the day, he was ridden brilliantly by Paddy Brennan. Of course that was a handicap and he did it off a good mark, but previous attempts in top class races had fallen short of the mark. That was, until he turned up in the Boylesports international Hurdle at the same venue. What he did that day, erally put him into peoples mind for this race.
On the day Celestial Halo was a very short priced and heavily fancied favourite, coming off the baclk of a good win at Wincanton, and was going well with only Kyber Kim for company coming to the last. The race had not been run at a great pace and Paddy Brennan had been going about his business very quietly throughout, giving his mount plenty of cover and just getting pull from the remainder of the field, he was always going well, and coming to the last was in contention when Celestail halo made a mistake, and although some may argue handed the race to Khyber Kim I would rather think that Paddy brennan had the race in the bag already and would have beaten him on the flat in any case. He never really had to ask the horse to do too much and another performance like that has him right there for this. The ony doubt I have with this one from Nigel Twiston Davis is his previous two festival performances have been poor, he has improved this term, theres no doubt about that but its a sticking point in my mind. Now we come to one with whom I have sided with for this race for a ong long time this season and only of late have I started to doubt my loyalty. Not through his own performances, but simply what others have been doing around him.

Zaynar first came to my attention on debut when beating my fancy for the race at Newbury, Walkon. He was then unbackable at 1/5 odds next time out before meeting with Walkon again in the Triumph Hurdle last season at the festival. I opposed him again with Walkon on the day, [but did have him in the exacta!!!], and although walkon got much closer than the first time this was still an improved performance. Since then I have been a big fan and followed him to Ascot where he put in probably his best performance to date beating a top class field in the Coral Ascot Hurdle, and then, to Cheltenham, with a much easier task at short odds in a small field. He did what he had to do on the day and was not extended. Then came the piece of form where he has been all but written off by some for this race. Sent off 1/14 favourite in a class 2 hurdle at Kelso with only three rivals to beat, he failed to do so, in spectacular fashion. Quweto had led throughout and Zaynar had been sat behind him. With the other two runners well beaten the run for home began, and Zaynar unbelievably found nothing as the leader just kept on to the line eventually beating the 1/14 favourite by an unchallenged length. Now, whilst I have no sympathy for anyone who bets at odds those short, and hindsight is a wonderful thing, I simply think there was not enough going on to keep him switched on throughout the race and the adrenelin was just not there for a fighting finish. It may be to my detriment that I am going to ignore this piece of form, and consider his unbeaten record coming up the hill at Cheltenham, his will for a fight ina decent sized field, and suggest he is a good price at 8/1. Its at leat a couple of points too big in my book.

Punjabi is almost the forgotten horse in all of this being beaten by many of the rival he will face today over the course of the season, but we muct also remember that Nicky Hendersons superstar also raises his game when the stakes are high. He ran brilliantly and fought out one of the best finishes at last years festival when holding off both the re opposing Celestial halo and the favourite on the day Binocular in this very race lst year. In fact, I would even go on to say that his performance, ratings wise, although finishing runner up to Solwhit, in the Champion hurdle at Puchestown next time up, was even better on ratings. We have seen him only twice this term in fourth in the International hurdl won by Khyber Kim and again when a 4 length runner up to Medermit in a race he was expected to win. On the ratings that was probably an inproved performance from the previous outing and he is on course once again to peak at the Festival and add another element to the outcome. Even though he is a little way down the market, it would be folly to write off his chances after he overcame the five year voodoo when third behind the five year old winner Katchit in 2008, and then winning last year. I think he has a great chance of scoring the double.

We get down as far as Medermit in the betting now and still we could be speaking of the winner, as already mentioned, is beating of Punjabi last time is a good guide as to his ability. As is his neck defeat by Go Native in the Supreme lst year and twice being close to Khyber Kim. The fact that he has been beaten on several occasions now by rivals he will face in the race has to be a negative, but he is still improving all the time as a 6 year old and that is in his favour against some of his older rivals. Again 9/1 but not out of consideration.

Both Celestial Halo and Starluck have been thouroughly covered through form lines of those already metioned and sit round the 14/1 mark for the event. A little clsoer look at Starlucks runs maybe in order. He is the youngster in the field and we have not seen him since finshing only a head second to Go Native at Kempton on Boxing Day. I cant work out if that is a negative for Go Native or a positive for Starluck, but what I do know, is that fact that the Fleming runer has youth on his side and improvement to come, whilst Go Native comes into this a seven year old and as good as he is likely to be over hurdles at this trip makes me question the parity in their prices. In essence as mentioned in Go Natives section I would like to see him a bigger price, whilst Starlucks price looks a bit genrous. Its onther piece of this intruiging puzzle that is the Champion Hurdle.

Sublimity and Donnas Palm are on the fringes here I think, and below that we have only hope for the runners, the winner I am sure will come from this group above. One thing is for sure, we are in for a classic race I am certain. But the question is, who will out victorious and be the last into the paddock and to the winners spot in the unsaddling enclosure? Summary: Go Native is a really strong contender, but Starluck could be being dismissed, with their close form lines, it thows a little bit of doubt over the pair for me. Solwhit comes ahead of these two then. I think maybe Khyber Kim has shown his best last time and im not sure if it will be enough for this race on the day although with scapls all over the place he will be in the thick of things, and iof going well still coming round the bottom bend with two to take, he will be short with the in running punters. Last years winner Punjabi cannot be dismissed and can win this race, and Zaynar, last race ignored has done nothing wrong on his way here.. So, Solwhit, Zaynar or Punjabi? Punjabi I am including on past glories and supposition that he is improving to peak for the race again, Zaynar I am romantically ignoring that last run which could turn out to be a mistake, but we can be assured he will stay up the hill, as with Punjabi, Solwhit looks the strongest contender for me, but has never faced the course. Now he has drifted in the market, Zaynar has to be the one, I have been with him a long time, and I may very well regret abandoning him SELECTION: ZAYNAR

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(16/03 16:40) 4:40 Cheltenham : Caroles Legacy Win @ 28.55

Horse Racing

I like Voler La Vadette a lot, and indeed have her covered extensively on the Ante post market, however i think the value has gone out of her price now as she has taken over at the head of the market in front of last years winner Quevega who has not been seen since winning this. For me that is a huge negative and she cant be had at 2/1.One that is running under the radar for this this year is last years 11th place Caroles Legacy. She was far too keen early on last year and did her chances no favours by pulling hard for a long way. Its very difficult to get away with that in such a big race and she didnt, fading and finishing well down the field. this term she has been chasing for Nicky Henderson and as yet has had nothing finish a race over fences in front of her. IN fact she has a 10 race acreer and hass won seven of those unplaced only twice. its quite some record and a record that does not warrant underestimation in odds of 25/1 for this. No doubt Voler is a class act and in form, but how good a hurdler could Caroles Legacy have become??

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(16/03 16:00) 4:00 Cheltenham : Sizing Australia Win @ 7.08

Horse Racing

Firstly in 2005 in the inaugrual year with superstar Spothedifference, Headsontheground, and the last twice with Garde Champetre, who is sure to be heading the market once again this year.

The yard are well represented once again with Garde Champetre, LAmi, Freneys Well, Drombeag and finally previous winner Headsontheground. All five sit within the first ten in the betig at this stage, and there must be odds somewhere for a Bolger 1-2-3, in fact i wouldnt be surprised if someone isnt offering a Bolger 1-2-3-4-5!!!
Garde Champetre has to be considered no matter what. He is going to be carrying top weight, but that has never stopped him before and he has won 5 of the last 6 times he has appeared here, and would have no doubt won the 6th if not for some very clever, if questionable tactics from Davy Russle aboard Paul Nolans Dix Villez when finding a legal shortcut no one else seemed to know about.
Sizing Australia got within three quarters of a length when they last met on this track even though Garde was giving his rival 22lbs in the handicap. That is actually increased to 24lbs for the race today and he looks the most liekly to break the stramgle hold Bolger has on the race and put Henry De Bromheads name up there instead.

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(16/03 16:00) 4:00 Cheltenham : Preists Leap EW @ 45.65

Horse Racing

Thisis the marmite race on day one. Its one you either love or hate in equal measure. I am on the former side of the preference, as i quite like the spectacle of somethig different, even if the results have become a litte more boring than the race itself in recent year, or indeed sionce icneption.

Enda Bolger dominates the race and thats probably the boring part about it, he has won four of the five renewals. Firstly in 2005 in the inaugrual year with superstar Spothedifference, Headsontheground, and the last twice with Garde Champetre, who is sure to be heading the market once again this year.

The yard are well represented once again with Garde Champetre, LAmi, Freneys Well, Drombeag and finally previous winner Headsontheground. All five sit within the first ten in the betig at this stage, and there must be odds somewhere for a Bolger 1-2-3, in fact i wouldnt be surprised if someone isnt offering a Bolger 1-2-3-4-5!!!




Garde Champetre has to be considered no matter what. He is going to be carrying top weight, but that has never stopped him before and he has won 5 of the last 6 times he has appeared here, and would have no doubt won the 6th if not for some very clever, if questionable tactics from Davy Russle aboard Paul Nolans Dix Villez when finding a legal shortcut no one else seemed to know about.




Sizing Australia got wihin three quarters of a length when they last met on this track even though Garde was giving his rival 22lbs in the handicap. That is actually increased to 24lbs for the race today and he looks the most liekly to break the stramgle hold Bolger has on the race and put Henry De Bromheads name up there instead.




That said LAmi is in a far better position in the weights this year after finishing runner up in last years renewal. But in three chases and two hurdle races since last years race he has not perofrmed anywhere near that level, but this course is somewhere he loves to run. He has never won at Cheltenham though but has placed four times from eight runs.




Monkerhostin leads the british challenge for Phillip Hobbs. This will be his first go at this course although he is no stranger to Cheltenham or indeed the festival after finishing 5th in the Gold Cup in 2007, and pulling up in the William Trophy in 2008. He didnt make the festival last year, his season finishing at Sandown in January. He ran well enough but was not seen again until reappearing at the same venue this year when showing he retains all his ability by beating Exmoor Ranger in a thrilling finish. If nothing else he is very consistent and represent Englands best hope of winning this title for the first time.




Silver Birch and Another Jewel have been held by some of these previously and will be thereabouts but probably beaten, whislt the remainder of the field will surely only be making up the numbers, whic shows just how much of a grip the irish have on this race.




I am so tempted to stick With Garde Champetre here but i am sure this strangle hold will not last forever and at as short as 2/1 although we were crying NO VALUE last year he delivered.I just see other getting closer this time and Sizing Australia still only a best price 5/1 to overcome the Bolger reign looks the one to chance with. LAmi has never convinced me and Ive never been a fan. From a purely romantic point of view i would like to see Monkerhostin win, but i dont see anything better than a place realistically. Im going for the title to remain in Ireland with SIZING AUSTRALIA or A final word for one that doesnt get a mention above, but i notice at this late stage that Davy Russel rides PRIESTS LEAP. He would have had a choice of rides for this race, and i think it is hugely significant that he has gone for this one. I cant make it out, He would have to majorly step up on what he has done so far. Russell is onyl 3-26 at Cheltenham over the last five years, but at the same time he is hugely in profit to +38 to single point stakes, combine that with a 2-7 for this yard and it becomes even more interesting, whilst we can also add into the stats mix that Russell has placed in 36% of all races worth between £20k-£50k over the last five years. That lone makes him 3/1 to place here today on a shot that is around 45/1 the win on Betfair and currentlt 6/1 for the place. It looks a great EW Bet for someone who doesnt usually bet EW

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(16/03 14:40) 2:40 Cheltenham : Ogee Win @ 13.00

Horse Racing

The first and the biggest handicap of the week goes off on this Tuesday and is always a daunting prospect trying to find the winner from the huge entry list and final entry declaration. However, it doesnt have to be so tricky and shortlisting is often quite an easy task if using some previous trends.These trends are not loosely searched out stuff, good solid trends that have remained relatively reliable over the last 20 and certainly the last 10 years. We need to be looking at runners no younger than seven and no older than ten, although more recently we can narrow that down to 7 and 8 year olds that have finished in the first three at least on both their last two outings, In addition they, for me, need previous festival experience, and have previous winning form over three miles.

Its not a good race for favourites despite Tony McCoy pulling out the ride of the festival last season in getting Witchita Lineman up in a thrilling run up the hill when all looked lost well before four out. Despite the competitive nature of this handicap it is unusual to find a winner coming from outside the 5/1-10/1 price bracket.Ogee has emerged late on in my thinking for this race. Quite why i missed him in the first instance I have no idea. I think is an exciting entry and very well repsected by me. Winning his last two outings over this trip including last time on this course too, he looks to have everything thats required to win a race like this. He is versatile as far as the ground is concerned, it looks not to matter if it is slow or fast, and he is improving all the time with even more likely to come on the day. David Pipe has had him off the track for a good while in preparation for this although I am sure he would liked to have had him out once, but has been prevented with the weather earlier in the year. He does have an apperance at the festival in his locker although its not the best. He didnt race here last year but appeared in the Coral Cup in 2008 when pulling up early. I personally think he is on a good mark and will be running a big race for the yard, he has raced only twice at this trip and has plenty more improvement in him.Bensalem heads the market (negative) at present and pretty much covers all the trends mentioned in the opening of this piece although the finishing in the first two on the last two outings is challenged as by finishing second last time out he only beat one home and didnt finish on his previous race as he fell. Previous to that he was well held, again by Diamond Harry, but he looks vulnerable in the realms of this race and the big bustly field. Whilst he was an excellent hurdler, winning twice here last season although not appearaing at the festival, I think he could get bullied out of this. Both these pair at the head of the market could be hailed as bad as far as trends go. Whihc is where Ogee comes in. Character Building is also exciting. In fact he would have been even more exciting if we had seen what he can do over fences this year, but he has been limited to just a single run over hurdles since winning the Kim Muir at last years Festival. That counts as his only win on the track in five outings. He has placed a further twice, both coming on good to soft going which is his preference and the likely opening day ground conditions. He travels well and will enjoy what will be a full on gallop around this track. Another thing that may be against him is his age. He is exposed at this trip and may have got as good as he will get over 3 miles.




Theatrical Moment will be Jonjo ONeills representative in trying to retain the title Witchita Lineman brought home with the not inconsiderable assistance of Tony McCoy in 2009. He doesnt look to have the armoury in the locker that others have and has had a stammered chasing career thus far. He has finished fourth on both attempts at this trip, and whilst he has won his last two outings, they have both come at Leicester most latterly beating on two other rivals in a three runner event. He is improving slowly but he will have to pull much more out of the bag to take this prize.




Galant Nuit has a super profile coming into this but he is still a baby and will have his chance in years to come. This six year old has plenty of chasing experience already, but has progressed little from his first completion at Uttoxeter. His win here, back in November, should be respected however, he stayed on really well and gamely over 3m 3f and beat a host of better rated rivals on the day for Ferdy Murphy. He holds his chance but would be a major trend buster if winning.




Calgary Bay is one more runner that could have a squeak of a chance of this race for his trainer Henrietta Knight. In fact, if earlier in the day, Somersby has gone into the records as the winner, she could come out of day one leading trainer if this one follows up! There is a symmetry about his previous form at this course with a pair of runs each over hurdles and fences. He has won twice here in each code and run at the festival once in each code. Problem is, when he has taken on the big races at the festival he has on both occasions been unplaced, his wins coming elsewhere on the calendar. He did win well last time we say him under Graham Lee at Doncaster. His biggest negative is that he will have to lump around 11-7 for the race and that is going to be no easy ask in a top quality handicap at the festival over three miles.




Victor Dartnell has Exmoor Ranger coming to the races and this ones run up to the festival this year has been almost perfect, and would have been but for a beating by a nose by Monkerhostin at Sandown last time when he was caght right on the line. He will be finishing up hill here as well and will need to stay every yard of the trip. He has raced here before in the Jewson Novices last season and was going well when falling well into the race. There looks to be no doubt that conditions will be in his favour, the biggest doubt will be if he is actually good enough to overcome the entire field and of that i am not sure.




The Tother One was only beaten 1 length over course and distance by The Package before running badly in the heavy going at Chepstow for the Welsh National, that race is excused. The 2008 Albert Bartlett third has a huge weight to carry however, although what is worth noting is that he was giving The Package a full 20lbs when going down by that length and will still be giving away 17lbs sat up at 11-12 for this race. As we know that is a monster weight to try to win this with and I dont think gives him much of a chance, there is always going to be something better treated further down the list.




Razor Royale should not be overlooked either. Hi slast outing when winning at Kempton was a brilliant ride from Paddy Brennan, for once outriding Tony McCoy on Nacarat and clear of the remainder of the field. He also had a decent enough runner up spot here over the Paddy power meeting when seven lengths second to Poquelin, and has winning course and distance form from just before in an amateurs event under Sam. That has left him with weight, but not as much as to consider it impossible for overcome some trends and he has shown he can carry it up the hill here.
Summary:

Exmoor Ranger just has too much to find with too many of these to consider for anything better than a place, whilst Calgary Bay will have too much weight. The Tother One surely has the same weight issue. Theatrical Moment has yet to really prove himself at this trip, let alone in the very best company coming up the Cheltenham Hill and may be going elswhere this week. Bensalem has almost everything required to win this race, but the thing that is missing is probably the most critical bearing in mind he will be finishing up the hill on the day. He is yet to have winning form over 3miles not to mention possible jumping frailties. It is only Diamond Harry that has prevented him from picking up a three miler, but it was one outing with only three runners on the flat Newbury track. This is going to be so different. Character Building is a tempting option and a steady performer, but steady might not be good enough on the day. The Package looks obvious, but is it too obvious. These races dont go to the obvious ones do they, he may be given most to do by Razor Royale. The Package is the call, but OGEE is the dark horse here and could cause an upset at a price

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(13/03 16:35) 4:35 Wolverhampton : Bajan Tryst Win nap @ 9.36

Horse Racing

This looks a really open handicap and the pricing on Betfair makes it a very tempting event to get involved with. But where we could help ourselves is by considering this is over just the 6 furlongs and the inside will have an advantage.

This i would suggest will give Tiddliwinks everything to do from stall 12 today and preference would go to to something like Bajan Tryst who found himself 5 lengths down on Flipando last time out but in front of Thebes over course and distance. Thebes has since won, and faces Bajan Tryst again worse off at the weights from that previous run.

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(13/03 15:30) 3:30 Chepstow : Maktu Win @ 1.83

Horse Racing

Maktu leads the way in this small field and is likely to be a shade of odds on for the event. Give rivals line up to take on the undulating three miles around the Monmouthshire course. Maktu is no stranger to the course having competed over hurdles here with a modicum of success. His record here reads 6 runs three places and a win. his chase record is similar, he has five outings to date over the bigger obstacles and recorded a fourth, two thirds and two runner up spots. he has an ideal opportunity to put the cherry on that particular cake today.

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