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Rodan
Group 2 Class
Joined: 04 Dec 2007
Posts: 112
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 Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:31 am Post subject: was it really that bad??? |
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| jwoody wrote: |
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| not many are going to limp for 400, then call a 3600 all in), especially at this table |
It sounds as if the only hand likely to call you on a table like this is a better hand, this would probably been true even if you had tried the same move with A10.
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and if the blinds wake up with a monster (they need a monster to call with 4 players to act behind them), thats just unlucky |
Nevertheless, you have to factor this possibility into your thinking as 5% of the time someone in the sb/bb will have a hand strong enough to at least consider calling. With tournament poker, this factor becomes more important because every time you risk your whole stack, it could be the last play you're able to make.
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| interested to know what u guys think about this, and if any of u would have done the same?? |
It was an oppoortunistic play that backfired in so much as you got a caller and had to show the hand to the rest of the table, which certainly was'nt the plan with 45o. It would have ruined your table image if you had been playing tight solid poker up to that point, at least for anyone observant enough to consider your image. That said, your stack was getting low and it was getting to the point where the need to double up outweighed the need to have the best hand.
I don't think much can be achieved by looking at what hands 45o is a favourite against in a heads up situation as pretty much everything beats it, plus you were never intending on seeing a flop, rather steal the limp money in the pot and increase your stack significantly.
I'd say the size of your stack is important. If there was 2200 in the pot before your go, and 5800 in the pot afterwards, then it costs 3200 more to win a pot of 5800 which is 1.8:1 or just under 15/8 odds which equates to a 35% chance; so if he feels that he's 35% to win or better then he should call, purely from a mathematical perspective.
I'd estimate the likelyhood of someone at least having a pair as their hole cards at around 35%, with 6 others involved in the pot and a probability of 5.9% for each player to hold a pocket pair in the hole; this means there's a significant chance that someone has the correct pot odds to call if they don't put you on a pocket pair. Against those pocket pairs, you are a coinflip against a few but a severe underdog against most.
For this reason alone, maybe you did'nt have sufficient chips to make this type of move. As your stack shrinks, so do your strategic options; you are to be commended for putting some thought into the move before and after you tried it, this will stand you in good stead as most online poker players barely think about their own actions let lone the actions of their peers.
I would say because you are so limited in chips, you could have tried this move if everyone had folded around to you and there was 600 in the pot to be stolen; there would only be 2 opponents to consider, both having random hands, you are more likely to get just those 2 players to fold than 6 players. Also, in terms of the pot odds you would be offering, there would be 4200 in the pot with either 3200 or 3400 to call, which is around 1.2:1 or 5/4 or 44%, so the pot odds would be slightly less attractive to anyone who was borderline on calling or not.
Creative plays like this aside, I think the spots I would be looking to get my money in (using your specific conditions for the example) would be, when I have a premium hand worth pushing with usch as AK or QQ, or, pushing all in from mid to late position when it has been folded around to me (i.e. you are the first to voluntarily enter the pot) and I have a hand worth raising with such as 77 or KQ.
Overall, it was'nt the worst play in the world and it might have worked, but it's the sort of play that if you make it too many times then you dreastically reduce your chances of making the final table where the real money is. The biggest dislike about the move, for me, was the number of people involved with the hand, life is risky when you're in bed with 6 other poker players.
Either way, good luck with your future hands and keep thinking about your game, feel free to make more posts like this, it's refreshing to discuss a hand that was'nt a bad beat and even more refreshing to find someone wanting to discuss a hand that was'nt a bad beat! |
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I dont know much about poker. I can play but its not my chosen game.
A win is a win though. It doesn't matter if it's through luck or any strategy. The whole point is to win Surely rather than the methods involved?
Good on you Tod. Don't worry about the abuse you might get. A win is a win even if its a guess, which it wasn't in your case. you had a strategy, it paid.
well done, forget about any purists. A system is nothing if it doesn't win.
Hope you nail him/her again. |
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turfline
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Joined: 21 Jul 2007
Posts: 337
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:04 am Post subject: |
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Hi guys like your talk about what abuse you can recieve online, you see because they have the safety of playing behind a screen and have anonymity it will always happen, myself i like playing the tables and tourneys its more for the real poker player i find that online you have a lot of riff-raff who have never even played the tables, its more like lucky dip and the software leaves a lot to be desired on these sites, and some of the hands that you get on the sites you would never get in real life.
I started playing in the seventies lived in the USA and Canada have family over there, and they love thier poker, but you put over some good suggestions and points over, will follow your poker blogs with intrest,Good luck with your poker. |
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jwoody
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:45 pm Post subject: |
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Well I sincerely congratulate you on your success Tod and although your late position play is slightly too aggressive for my liking, you can't question your tournament results. I'm sure there must be a hell of a lot more to your game than going all in with any two cards when it has been folded around to you in late position and stealing big multiway pots pre flop where a number of players have limped in, you obviously have a talent for the game and it would be good to get more of your opinion and discussion in this forum!
I'd say one (of many I'm sure lol) of the leaks in my game is that I'm not aggressive enough from late position, any thoughts you have over this would be greatly appreciated i.e. just how aggressive do you advocate being in such a spot.
Also, I'm intruiged to know why you chose to start this specific discussion! Most folk only start discussion type threads in this forum to discuss the same boring bad beats they've recieved, it's nice to see an alternative poker topic to discuss in here. I understand that your opponent with pocket deuces spat his dummy out at you and maybe this discussion was to see how many others make similar plays to yourself, but also do you see making the multiway pot steal as a leak in your game?
Please don't misunderstand me, I'm certainly not having a go, my thinking was that if you push all in as you described above 200 times spread over 50 tournaments, how may times do you estimate that you will get busted and do you feel the payoff for when the move works is enough to justify the risk?
I was thinking, if you make the move 200 times and it worked 175 times, where your opponents fold and you scoop the pot pre flop, then we assume with the 25 hands it did'nt work you got at least 1 caller, maybe we estimate that you win 40% of these pots, so 60% of the 25 hands you get busted or are crippled, which equates to 18 lossess; would you say the maths are accurate and would you say this constitutes as a leak?
I'm not sure this is a huge leak even if it is a leak, because you are mainly making these moves when you are shortstacked and you have to gamble a bit more when shortstacked, maybe the 182/200 success rate is more than acceptable when looking at the payoff?
I guess all I'm hoping for is a bit of discussion that might help fellow members and might also help your good self, feel free to disect my thinking (or lack of it!) and please don't stop posting such interesting topics because of silly old fools like me who sometimes struggle to see past tight passive play!
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turfline
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Joined: 21 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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Hi guys well have been playing Online poker since June 07 on and off and stick to tourneys and freerolls and tourneys that Insidepoker E.mail me.I am a yearly subscriber though it was Inside Edge that i origanlly subscibed to because horse racing is my no.1 sport but i have found thier poker mag to be very good reading. I enter just $5.50 tourneys for the moment to find my feet in this online world and i am starting to subscribe to all the poker sites, i have been in the money 4 times in the last 10 days and won my first tourney last night (63 entries) but what i have found is that most of the players have been very gracious and the banter on the (chat) is of a good natured laugh,in my opinion if you get under someone's skin in this game at the tables you have got to hide it other wise you will lose the plot and its bingo for the other players at your table.Online its a case of vent outlet because of anonymity.
Last edited by turfline on Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Tipster2007
Group 2 Class
Joined: 10 Sep 2007
Posts: 125
Location: Lincolnshire
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Hi guys well have been playing Online poker since June 08 |
What year are you in mate?   
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turfline
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks Tipster2007 have been on such a high this week still trying to find a landing pad after collecting my dosh over Keegan result/ to many fine wines. |
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superwomble
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Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Posts: 76
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| i find that online you have a lot of riff-raff who have never even played the tables, its more like lucky dip and the software leaves a lot to be desired on these sites, and some of the hands that you get on the sites you would never get in real life. |
Hi turfline - I'm intrigued by this statement, would you care to explain your thinking please? |
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Tipster2007
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Location: Lincolnshire
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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Hehe get a good price on Keegan?.. What a fantastic manager for toon fans even betetr if Shearer comes
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turfline
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:55 am Post subject: |
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| Well superwomble, tod1999 has laid most of it out, it also becomes a point of view that how on earth do people learn the fundimentals of poker when the online poker software used by the sites is so flawed to give most punters a false sense of security, as explained by tod1999 if you go and put the same strategy to the tables you had better have deep pockets. Playing behind a screen will not help you with the tells,playing at the tables with a real deck of cards cannot be beaten and real people,its a good training ground for any novice starting out, beg your pardon any poker player. |
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superwomble
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Joined: 27 Apr 2006
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:33 am Post subject: |
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No offence, but anyone who thinks that online poker is fixed in any way as to make hands more 'fun' is clearly mistaken.
I have played thousands of hands both online and live and the only reason you see more supposedly unlikely hands online is because you play more hands online. In an hour online you could play 5, 10 times as many hands as in a live game as it's so much quicker. |
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superwomble
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject: |
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But how many times do live hands go to showdowns, so you see the results? A lot less than online, where players are much less likely to fold, therefore you see more results and of course you then see more great results than live.
Are you seriously suggesting online poker is rigged? |
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turfline
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| OK i have been playing poker since 1970 and i have played at Luton, London,Brighton and the USA and Canada which have been my usual haunts i also play in private games... were you have to have a wad of a certain size, and in all those years i have only ever seen one running straight dealt (8-9-10-J-Q of clubs) in cards dealt table poker. Since i have been playing online June 07 I have had a Royal Flush A-K-Q-J-10 of Hearts and 3 other straight running Flush's. one was on a final table and i still did not win the final, to put it bluntly the odds of a pack of cards is astrinomical when shuffled to determine an out come, software is designed to keep the hunger going in punters, otherwise they would soon lose intrest, its about making profits not appeasing the aficionado. |
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