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jwoody
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 Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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| many a time online i have seen one player bad beat hand after hand after hand....that just does not happen live, the laws of probabilty wont allow it. |
The laws of probability state that one outcome has absolutely no effect on the next outcome, so the likelyhood of recieving another bad beat straight after a bad beat is exactly the same as recieving a bad beat after winning a pot with the best hand. I think you have to classify exactly what constitutes a bad beat, from a percentages point of view, in order truly calculate the probability; for example:
If AK vs AQ all in pre flop constitutes as a bad beat and AA vs KK all in pre flop does too, then you have a 1/4 shot and a 1/5 shot respectively. The probability of these 2 events happening one straight after the other would be:
(1/4) * (1/5) = 0.05 = 20:1 chance
I'm sure we have all seen 20/1 bad beats before. Even three AK vs AQ pre flop all in bad beats are only a 64:1 shot which is'nt that unlikely to see if you play 20 years worth of poker. All I'm trying to prove is that it might not be as far fetched, mathematically, as one may initially think.
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i for one would like to see the information that you feel you could provide to back up your statement:
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| will do what I can to provide further proof that the electronic deal and shuffle are fair, if not fairer than a human shuffle |
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I feel I have already provided some factual information in previous posts on this thread regarding the integrity of the electronic deal and shuffle, namely the Itech RNG report aswell as the Ecogra Global Online Gambler report, I'm still working on providing further information, watch this space matey!
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jwoody
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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Here's a link detailing hardware random number generation for anyone that's interested in learning more about how poker sites employ a random shuffle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator
More related information to come hopefully!
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jwoody
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| Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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Still no response from the poker site I contacted regarding them providing additional info on their RNG and testing, I will broaden my search if anyone on here shows interest.
I have, however, been speaking to a number of regular players who I consider to be well above average in both their approach to the game aswell as their understanding of it, they have given me further opinions which have got me thinking.
Poker is still a growing industry, why would they need to rig a game which is comfortably growing in the right direction and is already hugely lucrative because of the rake being earned. I cannot prove the following statement but I hear that Poker Stars make around half a million dollars per hour from rake income on their cash tables alone! To me, it just does'nt make good business sense to jeopardise a cash cow like that.
As a follow on point as to why the poker sites would'nt rig their software... it has been possible for a number of years to record a huge collection of hands played on a site, and through analysing these hands it can be accurately determined whether outcomes are happening close to their true statistical probability i.e. the theoretical probability of making a royal flush is 0.000032, so when analysing 10 million+ hands you will get a fairly accurate idea of how far each hand rank deviates from its actual probability. Do you really think online cardrooms would risk losing everything, knowing that a small percentage of their customer base was able to prove/disprove the randomness of their software?
I'm considering trauling the 2+2 forums because a little bird tells me there might be some interesting documentation in a similar thread to this one. Anyone fancy lending me a hand?
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jwoody
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jwoody
Stallion
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Joined: 13 Dec 2004
Posts: 5896
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace
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| Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: |
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A forumite from another forum kindly provided me with the following article which is rather disturbing; it claims that DoingPoker are using bots on their poker site, although it does state in the article "It cannot be proven to a certainty", but nevertheless it's worth a read to give a balanced view to this debate:
http://www.pokerscout.com/News.aspx#DoingBots
Should we be worrying more about the prevalence of bots playing poker instead of the fairness of an online cardrooms RNG? Thoughts please!
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turfline
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| Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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Hi jwoody how are you and thankyou for looking up about this info.I value your input highly.
I would say in my opinion that there are not any rules being broken by any sites, its just that you can try and simulate card hand deals but it is not possible, you might get to 55% of a target if that, and if you make an industry and this is its format and it is excepted, and the rules are made to govern it, fair enough, you can call it what name you wish.
But as for real deal table poker it is not.
Because it is an Internet related game there is a vast Pool of players out there and profits can be humungous, and i say good luck to anyone who makes a buisness and gives entertainment to others thats what it is all about. |
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graybert
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Joined: 16 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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I dont trust online poker or any computer/programs when it comes to gambling.
i'm not sure if online poker is rigged but i do believe that these sites sometimes use action flops to entice 3 or more players into a hand.example-
giving each player the same card with a nice kicker then throwing the same card out to give them all top pair with a nice kicker and thats just a basic example, i was playing in a 50p-£1 cash table and i was delt A4 clubs i called a small raise and the flop gave me a flush draw so i bet and 2 other people called, the next card gave me the nut flush so i checked, 1st guy go's all in, the next guy flat calls so i call as i have the nuts.
the cards are shown and i take the pot(about £350 or so)but to my surprise the 1st guy has K9 clubs and the other guy has Q10 clubs and i hold A4 clubs. crazy.
the reason these sites use action flops is because they take a percentage of the pot on each round of betting so if 3 people all think they are infront they will bet big or call big increasing the pot inturn increasing the rake the site takes. this rake is risk free and 100% profit for the site.
i'm not saying i know for sure if this is true but you have to agree its very suspect and an easy way to make money at no risk.
i use to play alot of online poker but i mostly play at work now and can say that crazy hands do happen if you play enough hands(against loose crazy chasers) in both real and online poker.
online i have hit 3 royal flushes and flopped one of them and hit none at work.
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