WSOP Main Event Betting

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 12:42 pm Post subject: WSOP Main Event Betting

I've been concentrating a lot more on gambling than poker recently but with the WSOP main event starting on friday I thought I'd take a look at the betting to see if there was anything that stood out.

Small stakes for interest - Phil Ivey to win the WSOP Main Event @ 150/1 (Bet365) & Phil Ivey to make the final table @ 66/1 (Blue Square)

Surprisingly (it was a surprise to me anyway) Bet365 make Gus Hansen favourite to win the main event. They price him up at 125/1 (he's 250/1 with sporting bet) and have got the legend Phil Ivey joint 2nd favourite at 150/1 (100/1 with sporting bet) along with Negreanu, Dwan and Helppi.
To my mind Ivey is streets ahead of the competition. He's already won another 2 bracelets this year, and managed to finish 22nd in the $5000 Pot-Limit Omaha Eight-or-better event, despite only playing in it while he was on breaks from another tournament! He seems to have found his WSOP rhythm after a disappointing WSOP in 2008 where he didn't win a single event, and he has already won a WPT event this year. He has also placed in the top 25 of the main event 3 times in the last 7 years.

The field will be huge again (maybe 7000+) but the cream should rise to the top and I think Ivey looks like the man to get behind.

Oddschecker's WSOP Main Event Odds

AcesJones · Posted: Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:19 pm Post subject:

Given his recent form Andy I have to agree that priced @ 150/1 Ivey seems a good bet. Win

Allen Cunningham often goes deep in the main event and 200/1 offers a nice return. Win

Roll on the "Main Event", who'll be coming back in November. Confused

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andrew8 · Handicapper Joined: 19 Dec 2008 Posts: 24

Tran to make the final table might be worth a few

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 2:52 am Post subject:

Bet365 have priced up what the winning hand will be at the final table and for my money they've got it wrong.

They have a pair as the most likely winning hand (with high card 2nd favourite and 2 pair close behind), and while I would agree that pairs are obviously more likely to come up, I don't agree that at the WSOP main event final where there is likely to be a prize difference of around $3million between the winner and 2nd place (and of course the bracelet) that many will be tempted to shove with a measly pair.
I checked the history of the winning hand and it very much supports my theory. Of the last 12 winning hands (going back to Stu Ungar's win in 1997) 5 have been full houses, 5 have been straights, 1 has been 2 pair and only 1 has been a pair! I checked the price for a straight since the last 2 finals have been won with that and it's 10/1, with a full house at 20/1.
Based on the evidence it seems as though players wait for the bigger hands to go all-in with when heads up at the final table (which seems logical to me since it's likely to be the most important hand of their lives), so I think there's a lot of value to be had in dutching the winning hand to be a straight @ 10/1, a full house @ 20/1 and a flush @ 12/1. It seems to me that Bet365 have priced this market up based on the chances of the hand occuring rather than the chances of a player pushing it all in or calling with it.

I recommend dutching 'the winning hand of the final table to be':
Straight @ 11 (42.19% of total stake), Flush @ 13 (35.7% of total stake), Full House @ 21 (22.1% of total stake) for combined odds of just over 4.6

I'm prepared to put a fairly decent stake on this since I think Bet365 have priced it up incorrectly, and I fully expect the odds to drop to about half of what they are now.

Here's a link to the odds

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 2:52 pm Post subject:

Here's a link to Daniel Negreanu's blog. His main event first day is today (it'll be starting at 8pm GMT) and he's been watching Rocky films to psyche himself up.

Good luck Kid Poker Win

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:14 pm Post subject:

Well Negreanu had a short main event - less than 3 hours by my reckoning! His pair of 3's was no match for his opponents pocket queens, and the board changed nothing for either player so he's gone.

Lets hope Phil Ivey does better than that tomorrow.

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:01 am Post subject:

I'm really enjoying the updates on the WSOP live updates webpage.
It seems Phil Ivey is doing pretty well on 105,000 chips, and even though Durrrr is only on 26,000 he seems to be having fun, managing to rope fellow high stakes online player, Matthew Marafioti, into a $5,000 bet to do 10 shots of tequilla in 15 minutes without throwing up! Apparently the tournament director was worried about Marafioti being sick so Durrrr placated him by offering to give $5,000 to the charity of the tournament director's choice if he's actually sick!

Update - It took Marafioti 11 minutes 41 seconds to do the shots. There's about an hour of play left that he's got to keep them down for now though.

Update - Marafioti has been escorted out of the tournament! Confused

He had quite a healthy stack so it doesn't seem like he's out, but he was being very raucous apparently Laughing

jwoody · Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:03 am Post subject:

lol, a Brit would've done the 10 shots in 15 seconds...in a pint glass...and for free!
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Andy4Fingers · Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:37 pm Post subject:

AcesJones · Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:09 pm Post subject:

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 3:10 pm Post subject:

Because I'm such an idiot Aces I decided the odds weren't big enough and put Lancashire to beat Hampshire in with it @ 8/11 and Lancashire lost!

Oh well, there's always next year Crying or Very sad

qprjon99 · Listed Class Joined: 21 May 2009 Posts: 45

I followed this one Andy, so thanks mate! Only a couple of quid but I'm not one to turn down a 66/1 winner..

I think I understand but the "final" is in November right?

Seemed to me that Moon was a bit of a chancer, got a series of good hands...any advice on covering Ivey? Placed it as a bet so happy to let it ride but if you think there's any particular danger I might consider it...