Bryon Nelson Championship

manafana · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Bryon Nelson Championship

Just wondering on peoples thoughts for this tournie.

I have heard since last years tourenment that the course plays differently and an accurate driver is key.

Im looking at J.Leonard or Sean O'Hair as good possibles.

Top three in markets are all oppasable scott- has been ill and isnt much in form right now, immelmenn- played great at masters but doubt he'll be right for this, and donald- so underpriced its unfair place chances but doubt he'll pull win hasnt been playing the best missing cut at masters.
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gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3538

very open event this week and not sure i'm dabbling... could be one of loads who could win

scott is the class act ...capable of shooting very low but equally can blow out... shot 63 then quit sick few wks ago so not convinced of his fitness... and not interested at 12/1

leonard and o'hair have played last 3 wks on the trot and could go well - although o'hair shot high last wk and missed the cut - leonard was top20 and is going very consistently this yr . coul dbe the one to win if he can see it through...probably worth backing then laying if he leads after 3 rounds!

you would expect immelman to blow out but he may have new found confidence? not sure..might be a bit of after the lord mayor's show for him

garcia I always back against... poor odds for me for someone who is so out of form and chokes, likewise donald as you say...and sabba too

I like the look of longer odds this wk... avoiding the main few market-wise
> mahan is local but still waiting for him to hit top form this yr...verplank def champ but not in top form either

so quite a few crossed-off...

perez @ 75, watney @ 85, s maruyama @ 95 all appeal a bit for various reasons...bit of form recently or previously here

baird will go well and then probably fade so good for trading
jon byrd is in decent nick so could be worth watching
got a sneaky feeling poulter may shoot a decent score and surprise a few

there you go..,.anyone's tourney
Very Happy

think I'll probably back LEONARD too... and maybe dabble/trade PEREZ, WATNEY and POULTER

good luck all

manafana · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:49 pm Post subject:

Thanks for the response Gecko, another one who has caught my eye is JJ Henry , but bookies havnt been to generous with him 66/1 in places. He was really top of his game in 06, hes been getting better over season and his best finish 26th last time. I expect he could be closer this week.
My main reason for having looked at him is he was involved as a consiltant in designing the course so should know it well.
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gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3538

might back PETTERSSON as top euro @ 10/1... mainly because i dont rate donald garcia too much...

poulter at 13/2 may feature...

so might go e/w on pettersson as he has won twice on tour so no stranger to being up there occasionally

this yr he has 6 top25s from 8 cuts made so he isn't at the thick end of events but he is lurking..could be a cracking little bet - he did miss the cut last wk but tempted by the 10/1 as there isn't much competition

jonlitson · Handicapper Joined: 06 Feb 2008 Posts: 10

Hi there been betting on golf for the last couple of months now, had some great results and some not so good, but much prefer the odds on golfers compared to other sports. Can you please explain what you mean by "laying" players?

I see it mentioned a lot in the forums about laying high odds players in later rounds, but what does this mean in betting terms?? cheers for ya
help hope I don't come across as too thick !! Cheeky

welshie1 · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:16 pm Post subject:

Sabbatini for me here

Sabbatini has started 2008 well he has earned runner-up honours at The Sony Open in Hawaii and a tie for third at The Buiick Invitational. Sabbatini ranks fourth on Tour in par-four birdies, which could be an advantage as the par-70 Lay-out includes 12 par fours. He is in good form at the moment and he has great chance of finishing in the top 5.
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gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3538

hi jon

have a look here

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/school/laying_intro.php

explains the basics of laying/exchanges etc

basically, if you back a golfer at 100, then he starts well and his price drops a lot... then you can Lay him (ie back against him rather than for him)

this means your potential profit drops (if he wins) but you also reduce your liability if he doesn't win

if you get it right you can end up with a profit on all outcomes

quick example >

back Joe Bloggs at 100 for 10pts > potential win is 990 but loss would be your stake of 10

your Betfair screen would show this

Joe Bloggs
990.00, -10.00

* the first amount is your potential profit if he wins, the 2nd amount is your potential return if he doesnt (loss in this case)

he plays well and price drops to 10

then you can Lay him for 100pts

> your potential profit is now 990 less your liability on this 2nd bet > this is 900pts (100pts at price of 10) > so your total potential profit is 990-900 = 90pts

but you stand to win 100 on the Lay bet (if he loses) less your original stake of 10 (backing him to win) > so 100-10 = 90pt profit

you now have 90pt profit if he wins, or if he loses

your Betfair screen should show

Joe Bloggs
90.00, 90.00

* your return is 90pts in either case

hope this makes sense.. hence backing high prices works if they do well as you can protect yourself.. you accept much lower profit but equally get rid of any loss ..

regards

KangaMick · Listed Class Joined: 02 Apr 2007 Posts: 40 Location: Spain

I really like Fredrik Jacobson this week as wellas a little on JJ Henry.

Jacobson starting to get into the groove again. This course will suit him down to the ground.

Only going with Henry due to the consulting he did, plus he has had a good history here.
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badcompany · Group 3 Class Joined: 05 Jan 2007 Posts: 59

I actually fancy Garcia Each Way this week as I thought he looked good in his play the other week. Ok he faded away but his touch seems to be returning so a few pounds Each Way for me.

Sergio Garcia to win ! Win

manafana · Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject:

bounce for immelmann its more than than that, he must be drunk shot +8 today
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manafana · Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject:

gecko good call on petterson who looks solid now for top european.
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gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3538

cheers manafana > the lad done well for me... decent final round while the rest fell away... 10/1...lovely Laughing