Italian Open 8-11 May

[gecko6]

bit of a quieter event this week as the Players is on in Florida... may still be some value in one or two of the longer shots and maybe a 4th consecutive irish winner

[KangaMick]

Hi Gecko6.

I have been having a look at this event with a bit of detail and have narrowed it down so far to 4 players.

Anders Hansen 20/1. His last 2 events in Europe have both been T12. He had a crack at the MAsters and finished 88th. His Italian OPen form reads as T56-T2-T2-T9. Excellent course form and in current form. Great Each Way.

Oliver Wilson 25/1. Current from of T11-T2-8. And course form of one attempt in 2007 for a T14. Just have a feeling about him this week with his current form being excellent.

Andrew McLardy.25/1. Last to events have been T10 and T9 and Italian form of T7-T12-T6. Great Each Way value.

Bradley Dredge 20/1. Having a great year in Europe. Current form T25-T15-T17-T14. Mr Consistent due for a change of luck to crack it for a win. 3 attempts in Italy for T47-T6-T2.

Will end up narrowing this down to 2 players and backing them Each Way.

Any thoughts on who should be shelved?
_________________
Living the Dream!

[lochinvar]

Francesco Molinari loves this course with 1st in 06 and T3 in 07 and is coming in to form with T3 in BMW Asia Open and T22 latest and should give another very good account this week. You watch though, my luck and it will be his brother that Edoardo that shines.

Alfredo Garcia-Heredia shot below 70 every round in the Open de Espana and if reproducing that form has a good chance of being in top 5 and at a nice price 125/1.

Ignacio Garrido shot great first and second rounds last week and hoping he can do the same this week for all four rounds and 100s look good e/w.

[gecko6]

hi guys...good stuff.. like the comments

tend to agree with most of that ...only slight concerns for me > thought anders hansen would be a deffo but having looked at it in depth, I'm not so sure now, not convinced about his putting and although he has course form he hasn't been in the thick of it for a while

not sure about garrido as think that was a one-off but definitely agree with others > McLARDY is quietly going along in the top 20s...garcia-heredia would probably have won last wk but for those 2 d/bogeys early in the round...

like the current form of ollie wilson, not so sure about dredge as hasn't been around for a while..

regarding the faves, not sure about dougherty or karlsson although they are good putters and karlsson may well find his top form and stroll this... will look elsewhere though

a few picks for me >

alexander NOREN > impressive young swedish lad who hits it a long way, can be a bit wayward but has good GIR and putting stats (I like anyone who matches GIR over 12 with putts under 30)... have seen him a bit recently, was 10th last wk and I do like backing players who are top 10 the wk before as they often step up a bit (eg mcgrane lawrie recently)
.. odds arent over generous at 30/1 but this is my tip for the week

funny you mention both MOLINARIS lochinvar, as i'm going for both! francesco won 2 yrs ago and was a shot away last yr from a playoff... I tipped him 2 wks ago and he snuck in 3rd which was nice - is decent off the tee and with home advantage and presumably a love for this event, he looks a decent bet even though only 20/1 best now

his brother edoardo looks a cracking bet to me at longer odds... he was 7 shots off the lead last yr here which wasn't bad, tied 22 last wk, is accurate off the tee and quite long, ok putting wise and GIR and should be nearer 66/1 to me... so 129 on Betfair looks huge... ok he won't win but looks over-priced as showing some consistent form even though he isnt busting into the top10s.. this could be the week... hopefully good for trading

michael JONZON is another one I like the look of - ok off the tee and ok putting..nothing outstanding but recently tied 6, 37, 18 so has been showing a bit... seems a good bet at 80/1 as has been around a while and is hitting some steady form

longer odds again > like francois DELAMONTAGNE - available at 200/1 currently but he is a good putter, just needs to hit more greens regularly, stats arent bad though and should be half that price so will trade him hopefully

and as you say, GARCIA-HEREDIA - if he can bounce off last wk then 150/1 looks massive for a player of his potential ability

another high price that may be worth a look is jan-are LARSEN - 300/1 available for a guy that can play quite well but cant putt.. not a terrific recommendation but if he sinks a few it will be a nice surprise

* a very open event.. good cases for any number of players this wk but I'm looking for some longer odds to trade and see what happens...

I'll probably go for NOREN, with MOLINARI (f) JONZON McLARDY in the top 4... and trading MOLINARI (e) and DELAMONTAGNE

good luck to all as usual...hope its another good payday this week guys

[richardmcfc]

Such an open open tournament and one that the bookies have no idea of pricing. Have a look at the odds on Ladbrokes and notice how close the field is in terms of betting - they cant seperate them.

F Molinari 15.00
N Dougherty 15.00
R Karlsson 17.00
A Hansen 21.00
B Dredge 21.00
C Schwartzel 21.00
A McLardy 26.00
A Noren 26.00
D Lynn 26.00
M Brier 26.00
O Wilson 26.00
S Kjeldsen 26.00
T Levet 26.00
A Forsyth 34.00
G Fernandez-Castano 34.00

First up for me is 2007 winner G Fenandez-Castano who I think is quite a good price for a past winner and one that is in relative form over the past few months. He admittadly loves Italy recently quoting

[healm]

Great tips Gecko6! Norén will very soon have his big break and the Molinaris cannot be counted out at home!

But the fat Micke Jonzon of my country (SWE) is nothing to back. He´ll soon be back on normal which menas MC, MC, MC...

Only tried one h2h in this event.

Levet - Jacquelin 1,98 Expekt

Time för Jacquelin to regroup after his troublesome times off the course. Optimal chance here as he really likes the place. Levet making his debut here and I do believe he´s had his time this yr already!

[gecko6]

thanks mate... might avoid jonzon in future then!... agree with match bet jacq over levet.. levet was all over the place last wk

good luck

[swashbuckler]

Preview
Posted: 06 May 2008 22:16 Post subject:
hi all
yes,i think we are all thinking along the same line here.i believe both tournaments will be won by fancied players this week. after hours of study form for both tournaments i keep coming back to players at the top of the betting market for my idea of the winner,

f.molinari 20/1 = course form last 4 years ,,13-17-won-3
also good recent form with a 3rd place finish at the bmw asia open

a.mclardy 33/1= course form last 4 years,,nr-6-12-7
also good recent form with a 9th and 10th place finish in the last month

g.castano33/1=course form last 4 years,,nr-6-nr-won
also good recent form with a 5th place finish in the last month,
missed cut last week,but would overlook that as players that play in their home golf tournament some times try to hard and put extra pressure on themselves.sometimes i don`t back defending champs for the same reasons but i do think castano is getting close to winning this year.

a.noren30/1=has no recent course form [played in this 2 years ago and withdrew during tournament] but he is definetly a winner waiting to happen and i believe he will win a tourment this year. had a great year last year and has good recent form with a 4th place finish recently.

also players i fancy that could challenge for a place at big odds are ;

d.drysdale 200/1= course form nr-14-12-37
also decent recent form with a top 20 finish in the last month. he is a player i have done on a few occasions in the last couple of years and he is capable of appearing on the leaderboard. i think they are huge odds.

m.foster125/1= course form 19-nr-40-14
also good recent form with a top 25 last week and had a good year last year appearing on the leaderboard on a few occasions. big odds.

h.nystrom150/1= course form nr-mc-mc-3
finished 32nd last week after been well placed after 3 rounds.also appeared on some leaderboards last year and could be worth following at big odds.


p.fowler175/1= course form nr-8-nr-nr
was well placed after 3 rounds last week but stuttered a bit in the last round but still finished a respectable 22nd .a solid tour player who had to go back to the tour qualifiers last year.on his day could easily make it on the leaderboard.


top 10 finish [Paddy Power ]

h.nystrom 9/1
d.drysdale 9/1
m.foster 7/1
p. fowler 15/1
might be worth a look

i am finding it hard to pick my main fancies from the above but if push comes to shove i would opt for,,,g.castano and f. molinari with d.drysdale and h.nystrom as big outsiders
best of luck everyone with their picks



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hi all
yes,i think we are all thinking along the same line here.i believe both tournaments will be won by fancied players this week. after hours of study form for both tournaments i keep coming back to players at the top of the betting market for my idea of the winner,

f.molinari 20/1 = course form last 4 years ,,13-17-won-3
also good recent form with a 3rd place finish at the bmw asia open

a.mclardy 33/1= course form last 4 years,,nr-6-12-7
also good recent form with a 9th and 10th place finish in the last month

g.castano33/1=course form last 4 years,,nr-6-nr-won
also good recent form with a 5th place finish in the last month,
missed cut last week,but would overlook that as players that play in their home golf tournament some times try to hard and put extra pressure on themselves.sometimes i don`t back defending champs for the same reasons but i do think castano is getting close to winning this year.

a.noren30/1=has no recent course form [played in this 2 years ago and withdrew during tournament] but he is definetly a winner waiting to happen and i believe he will win a tourment this year. had a great year last year and has good recent form with a 4th place finish recently.

also players i fancy that could challenge for a place at big odds are ;

d.drysdale 200/1= course form nr-14-12-37
also decent recent form with a top 20 finish in the last month. he is a player i have done on a few occasions in the last couple of years and he is capable of appearing on the leaderboard. i think they are huge odds.

m.foster125/1= course form 19-nr-40-14
also good recent form with a top 25 last week and had a good year last year appearing on the leaderboard on a few occasions. big odds.

h.nystrom150/1= course form nr-mc-mc-3
finished 32nd last week after been well placed after 3 rounds.also appeared on some leaderboards last year and could be worth following at big odds.


p.fowler175/1= course form nr-8-nr-nr
was well placed after 3 rounds last week but stuttered a bit in the last round but still finished a respectable 22nd .a solid tour player who had to go back to the tour qualifiers last year.on his day could easily make it on the leaderboard.


top 10 finish [Paddy Power ]

h.nystrom 9/1
d.drysdale 9/1
m.foster 7/1
p. fowler 15/1
might be worth a look

i am finding it hard to pick my main fancies from the above but if push comes to shove i would opt for,,,g.castano and f. molinari with d.drysdale and h.nystrom as big outsiders
best of luck everyone with their picks

[swashbuckler]

oh no
what am i after doing
i think i pasted it down wrong as i ended up pasting the whole sheet down with all the other posts.i deleted the rest but i don`t know why the post has gone down twice
help someone

[stamina]

the betting market is so very tight, and the grand national is easier to pick the winner.lol but back to golf. I was looking for value and has good course form and has played moderately over the last six tourneys in 2008. on this basis my bets are

andrew mclardy performs well here.
raphael jacquelin good value at 40s especially for place money
phillip archer has played well here and though his season is hit or miss looks to good at 66s.

the players I am avoiding are
nick doherty who can win this but since he lost his mother.I am sure his mind be elsewhere.
garrido since he bottled last week wont even get a sniff this week
michael jonzon third round last week was amazing made 9 birdies but six bogeys. i was watching his game and can compare it to a yoyo.

GOOD LUCK

[gecko6]

my jonzon bet is looking a bit dodgy now

i've just checked betting zone and pleased to see they are tipping mclardy and edoardo molinari... thought I was a bit out on my own with the lesser-fancied molinari!

they also tip mark foster by the way

[lesh37]

Gecko6,

Noren a great punt in my book, has been very consistent this year and although I went against him last week with Jiminez, he was the one player I feared on the last day, finally starting to turn the 70/71 scores into 67/68, he just seemed to like going for a swim like the rest of them at the business end last Sunday. Maybe he learnt a lesson.

I'm with him too this weekend.