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paul290603
Group 2 Class
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 152
Location: Dublin
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 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:13 pm Post subject: John Deere Classic US PGA TOUR |
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These are my thoughts for this weeks John Deere Classic. I basically only trade the markets at the start and take it from their so here is my backs and lays before the event kicks off.
BACKS
Ken Duke is a golfer I like who is very capable of putting a run together although maybe not quiet got what it takes to win. But a 140 on Betfair I think this is a good trading opportunity. He missed the cut last week but had a great week the week before at the buick finishing 4th with 4 rounds in the sixties so I am prepared to give him a chance.
I am also going to back another golfer who I think is a great golfer and a former champ in Sean O’Hair. His recent form hasn’t been great but he is liable to be quiet for weeks on end and then win out of the blue like he did earlier in the year taking the PODS title on the tour.
LAYS
Kenny Perry is the hottest golfer in America at the moment with two recent wins which like his golf form this season seems to be inspired by his drive for Ryder Cup action in his hometown later this year. Unfortunately, though he may win this week ( I think not ) at 8.6 on Betfair I will Lay this price week in and week out. There is no way any golfer apart from 3 at the most should be single figures to win the tournament before the event starts and I believe this price is serious value to Lay.
I will also be laying Pat Perez this week. Perez is a streaky kind of player who can rattle of 6 birdies in a row but can also just as easily rattle of as many bogeys. His current form is ok with a 6th place finish at the Crowne Plaza 4 weeks ago but he never threatened the lead as a final round 65 only saw him propel up the leader board unnoticed. In fact he has never been in contention going down the stretch this year and at 34 on Betfair I will take my chances on laying a player who is yet to win on the tour. He also missed the cut here last year.
Best of luck to all this week
Regards
Paul290603 |
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gecko6
At Stud
 Read My Blog!
Joined: 20 Oct 2006
Posts: 3841
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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hi paul
always interesting reading your comments - Lochinvar/myself added a comment on the scottish open thread...
agree on perry price..daft...
perez i think will feature briefly...but like many others will be up there without threatening to win...
this tourney throws up first-time winners sometimes but not sure who so small stakes for me this wk...
regards |
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cabrera
Handicapper
Joined: 05 Dec 2006
Posts: 24
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:24 pm Post subject: |
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Pgatour picks this week :
Bubba Watson on recent form
Nathan Green went well last year and he has been tipped a few times this year... |
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abcdef
Group 3 Class
Joined: 08 Jul 2008
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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Had to change usernames the other one was having problems..
Kenny Perry -170 over Zach Johnson (Shitty Line I got, its -150 at The Greek) 72 holes
Todd Hamilton -130 over Mark Calcavechia 72 Holes
Kevin Sutherland -130 over Ryan Moore 72 Holes
Charlie Wi -130 over Jason Gore 72 Holes
Matteson -130 over Kanada
Flannagan -125 over Triplett (Kirks first tourney of the year)
I read this..
I was following Jason Gore's group(which included the leader at the time, Jeff Overton) at the AT&T National this past Friday. While walking between the 9th and 10th holes I noticed that he was limping. As the round went on he continued walk more and more gingerly on it. He ended up withdrawing a few holes later. I'm sure it was easy to do since he did not have a good round going at that point. Anyone heard about an injury me may have suffered?
Most of plays are injury fades again. Kanada withdrew last week after shooting 79. Triplett hasnt played all year.
Here is some quotes from zach johnson
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The state of my game is -- it's rusty; I can't lie about that. I was cleared to play this past -- a week ago today, to actually start hitting balls. I sustained a minor injury to my left wrist, so it's been a process to kind of get the feelings back. My tempo is not very good and that sort of thing.
But at the same time, my expectations are minimal, if anything. I don't even have any expectations, so sometimes that's a good thing. I've had a lot of high expectations throughout the year because I've playing good, I think, I just haven't been scoring. So maybe this is a way to adjust that.
But I mean, it's all a work in progress. I would have loved to have played last week. Obviously the 4th of July in D.C. would have given me a week to play competitive rounds coming into John Deere, but it didn't work out like that, so I needed to take time off unfortunately. But I'm anxious to play
Q. Was there ever a concern about you being able to play here this week?
ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, absolutely. I didn't know how long it would take. I've never experienced anything quite like this. You know, last year I didn't get to play in D.C., and -- I've played Congressional and I love it, love everything about it. Especially around the 4th I think it would be fantastic. I've got some friends that were out in the Middle East so I would have loved to have played there last year and this year, but I haven't done that yet, so I really wanted to play last week, too, but it just didn't work out. So given that, yeah, there was a chance that it could have kept me out longer.
If I would have hit balls at a certain point, the way the doctor explains it to me, I could have been out even longer. I had to Lay off and do nothing. |
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abcdef
Group 3 Class
Joined: 08 Jul 2008
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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Bubba to win 30/1
Chris Riley to win 150/1
Brad Adamonis 200/1
Brenden Pappas to win 300/1 <-- 28/1 top 10
This field is like a nationwide event.. what a joke. Just guesses on the long outrights. Pappas is playing well, just monday qualified also.
Id stay away from Sean O Hair, he seemed hesitant about his game in his press conference today. |
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stamina
Group 3 Class
Joined: 15 Feb 2006
Posts: 79
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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I agree with perry being to short 8/1.he is worthy favourite but 8s got to be joking.
I do agree with letzig being good value at 80s and I think sutherland has a Each Way chance but my tips
john senden 40s previous winner and last week's form is showing that he is finding his form with a 18th place. though he did miss cut last year.
mark hensby one of those players that has miss so many cuts this season however great value and previous winner of this tourney and at a temptiing 100/1 got to be worth a bet.
billy mayfair 66s good course form
quick note 4 winners in the last ten years have the first initial j.
Last edited by stamina on Wed Jul 09, 2008 7:14 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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gecko6
At Stud
Read My Blog!
Joined: 20 Oct 2006
Posts: 3841
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:43 pm Post subject: |
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stamina >
I posted this on the scottish open thread >
also agree on john deere classic - small stakes if any for me..perry is way too short @ 8/1 although justifiable fav obviously
defending champ byrd is 40/1 and will probably be up there (top 5)
recent pick of mine slocum is 21 which is a bit short but should be top 3
sutherland @ 59 could go well, 2 top 6s in last few yrs here
letzig looks decent at 89 - good birdie conversion
hamilton @ 159 is worth trading hopefully (improved recently), possibly nicholas thompson too at 289 (drives well, gets a few birdies) and scott mccarron @ 369 (course form)
quite a few we agree on mate  |
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abcdef
Group 3 Class
Joined: 08 Jul 2008
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Paul, read O Hairs transcript at asapsports.com He said he hit it alright last week, just didnt make a putt. I dont know, but I got the feel he wasnt that confident with his game since he suffered that injury. |
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stamina
Group 3 Class
Joined: 15 Feb 2006
Posts: 79
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| Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:01 am Post subject: |
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gecko i totally agree. trying to pick the winner in this is like picking the winner of the grand national. take out perry and you can name at least 15 players that will feature. 15 to follow i think would be
senden letzig mccarron slocum green byrd clark armour hensby lonard mayfair merrick oglivie petterson leaney.
but i will be keeping a eye on wagner i like his game though he miss cut last year.
i have pick three
lately i could name all but one in the field and yes the one I didnt pick would win lol.
good luck gecko your tips are star quality and you have a great knowledge of courses and form. your a great source for information
cheers mate. |
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abcdef
Group 3 Class
Joined: 08 Jul 2008
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:38 am Post subject: |
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Ill say Tommy Armour WONT win this week  |
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swashbuckler
Classic Winner
Joined: 19 Mar 2007
Posts: 528
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| Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:28 am Post subject: |
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hi all
sorry again for not giving a write up this week but i have been busy recently,so much so that i have not time to study tournament and course form( something i always do) . i will be selecting players i have backed recently and are playing well (imo)
B.Watson 33/1 =playing very well at present and nearly entered the winners enclosure 2 weeks ago(when i had some nice monies on him  )i honestly think he has a great chance this week and this underated golfer is a outstanding e.w bet (IMO)
M.Leitzig 80/1 =he is a sure future winner in my opinion,i have been hoping it will be this year but if not, next year.he will have a great chance in the coming weeks with some of the top players missing events for different reasons.have backed him numerous times this year and believe his turn could be soon.
T.Hamilton 125/1 =another player i have followed for a while this year and he is playing well.i could see him making the leaderboard this week and if so,he could see the job through as he knows how to win.
D.Wilson 80/1=backed him a lot earlier in the year and is having a good year.played well last week and has past the winning line so knows how to win.i think he is a good price.
2 at biggish prices i like;
A.Buckle 300/1= i picked out both buckle and leitzig as 2 to follow at the start of the year and as leitzig has at least showed some promise buckle i must say has been disappointing.but this could be the tournament where he troubles the leaderboard.more hope than anything else but you never know.
M.Jones 150/1 =this player will win numerous titles in his future career (IMO)a lot of top players speak very highly of him and nearly entered the winners enclosure earlier in the year.a birdie machine when he gets going and a surefire future winner. maybe this week ??
a few of us are singing from the same hymn sheet this week and hopefully somebody here will have the winner 
best of luck everyone with their selections  |
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paul290603
Group 2 Class
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 152
Location: Dublin
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| Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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hi abcdef,
Yeah I read the comments and being honest that is O'Hair all over. I have followed him a long time ( in fairness all golfers, wife says I watch to much, leave that for another day ) and he is always like that. He big time suffers from lack off confidence, dating back to the ugly break up with his father and i agrre he is just as liable to miss the cut but the one thing about him if he is up there he won't choke he is not afraid to win. thanks a lot for the pointer though mate.
Gecko I also enjoy your write ups and good to see more people with idea's posting because at the start of the year I thought the golf forum was dying a death!!!
Best of luck 2 you both this week!!!
Regards
paul290603 |
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