Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Is Federer era over?
Hi guys,
Not much action this week, just one small tournament in Chile with some
interesting match-ups in Fed Cup over the weekend. So, I’ve decided to
entertain you with my thoughts on why Federer’s domination of the world
tennis might be over
Is Federer era over?
Is he overrated???
Well, in the last 12 months Federer has won just 6 out of the 14 biggest
tournaments (4 grand slams + 9 master events + master cup) that he
participated in, while Federer of 2 or 3 years ago was winning 10-11 out
of those 14 with Nadal beating him in the other couple of tournaments on
clay.
But now it looks like his time might be over!
And the reason to why Federer’s domination might be over is the following:
he does not have anymore this aura of invincibility that was winning most
close matches for him – even 2-3 years ago nearly all of the top players
(Roddick, Agassi, Hewitt, Davydenko) came to the court against Federer
knowing that they will lose and they played him accordingly – went for too
much power shots and committed way too many unforced errors. Actually,
Federer was playing defensively against most of his top opponents forcing
them to go for too much because they were simply scared of him and his
attacking game. But now, the next generation of top players believe that
they can beat Federer and they do beat him consistently lately – Djokovic,
Nalbandian, Murray, Canas. Technically speaking, all of those players
(plus Tipsarevic) have one similar feature – they exploit well Federer’s
wieakness – which is his backhand - their backhand is much better than
Federer’s, while their serve and forehand can be compared with Federer’s.
As a result, they play consistently to Federer’s backhand knowing that he
will eventually make an error from that side (or throw a soft mid-court
ball from which they can attack him).
I am not suggesting that Federer will not finish 2008 as a no.1 player in
the world but I am saying that the period of his domination is over and,
consequently, those funny 1.02 odds on Federer-Tipsarevic match must be in
the past also, as well as 1.22 odds on Federer-Djokovic or
Federer-Nalbandian matches. In my opinion the more honest odds on those
type of matches might be around 1.5-1.6 and any discrepancy in the odds
might be profitably exploited
good call, maybe we can start laying federer at 1.02 a bit more confidently now
Don't think his era is over, even when he performs poorly for a few days, he always bounces back...the sign of a champion. Shanghai Masters last year was a great example, didn't start off well but he ended up winning easily.
Well, I believe that if you always Lay Federer @ 1.2-1.25 against those types of players (Djokovic, Nalbandian, Murray, Canas) - it can be a profitable strategy
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Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:46 pm Post subject:
Is the Federer era over? There never was one, was there? Its always been a Federer/Nadal era to me. Nadal on clay, Fed everywhere else.
Nadal (if fit) will still win the French Open, Federer if fit will win Wimbledon, and the US Open is up for grabs.
I dont think one straight sets grand slam loss can be considered the "end of an era", especially as Federer was ill before the tournament, and we dont know how much it played a part overall. _________________ betking vs man o bong
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Joined: 21 Dec 2005 Posts: 78 Location: Pistoia - ITALY
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject:
In my personally opinion, after see he play in wimbledon 07, and for the great start of 2008 i think the king of the future become Tsonga.
He play serve and volley, is good to take advantages from the back of the field, powerfull strokes and serve, chirurgical precision... Run and run... Physic is perfect. I think he become the next player to win Grand Slam. Obviusly not this year... He got one think more than Federer... The only one Slam that Federer have miss every year, and probably the more difficult for both, is Roland Garros... In France... Home of Tsonga....
Federer era is not pass, i think that this situation penalized more Nadal because i cant take a final in an important tournament far from the clay this year, so is probably that he will lost his 2nd ATP Ranking position! _________________ NBA Playoffs 2007 record: 9W 1L
Joined: 21 Dec 2005 Posts: 78 Location: Pistoia - ITALY
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject:
AH.. I forgot...
If you Lay Roger in important match against high position players you lost your money.... no way.... i think that you can win 1 out of 8/10.... probably 1 or 2 for season... This season 1 is just pass... _________________ NBA Playoffs 2007 record: 9W 1L
Is the Federer era over? There never was one, was there? Its always been a Federer/Nadal era to me. Nadal on clay, Fed everywhere else.
Nadal (if fit) will still win the French Open, Federer if fit will win Wimbledon, and the US Open is up for grabs.
I dont think one straight sets grand slam loss can be considered the "end of an era", especially as Federer was ill before the tournament, and we dont know how much it played a part overall.
Sorry, but that's crazy talk. Nadal on clay equates to one grand slam, Federer everywhere else is 3 slams. Throughout the whole time, Fed has been number one in the world and only beaten at RG by Nadal, making the final twice, whilst Nadal has failed to get past the quarters of either slam on a hard court until this year's Aus Open. To try and paint them as equals is nuts.
It's like saying there was no Sampras era because he never went deep into RG, however we all know there was a Sampras era. Just because he didn't beat Nadal at RG doesn't mean this wasn't his era, and vice versa winning one tournament three years in a row doesn't mean you can claim this as your joint era in some way.
The length of time Federer has spent at number one and the number of slams and masters series he has won in comparison to Nadal means you can't possibly deny this was Federer's era.
As for the US Open, of course it's "up for grabs" as any tournament always is, and maybe this year slightly more so than other years due to Federer's increased vulnerability, but the way you present your arguement would suggest that Fed and Nadal have had an equal chance of winning the US over the last few years, which is total nonsense.
Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 2506 Location: Prenton Park TRFC
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:29 pm Post subject:
I don't think that Nadal is going to lose his 2nd spot Cashfarm, his form on Clay is formidable, he can probably pick up at least 2500 ranking points through the important Clay events, and then there's performances elsewhere, he's already picked up 570 ranking points, and an extra 2500 from just the Clay will put him in a probable top 3 position, even if he pulled out of every other event.
If he even makes two Quarter Finals of the other 2 Grand Slams and semi-finals of the non-clay masters he will be on 4850pts, 5 of the International series events should bring at least 500pts, so by the end of it all he should have 5350pts at least based on his ability, enough to see him safely into the top 2 place.
I think that the top 3 won't change this year in all honesty. The race is for a top 8 position as always, and Tsonga is very well adapted to gain a place in the top 8. Hard Court & Grass seem to go hand in hand in terms of how well players perform on these surfaces, the only problem which I find with Tsonga is that he is totally unproven at the top level on Clay, and also on Carpet, more Clay surfaces, as in his carear, I cannot find any results for Tsonga on the Clay, therefore, I do expect a decent start to the season, but come May/June, he could drift away, and leave a space for someone like Gasquet or Gonzalez to cement a position in the top 8.
Even though he had a poor US Open I still think that Murray is worth watching, won't take part in an event for a couple of weeks until San Jose, so a decent chance for trading, as his price on a top 8 finish should drift slightly, with 4 events before San Jose other players will be gaining points towards their races.
As far as the original question goes however, the Federer era is not over yet. Illness affected his performance here, he even said so himself, and he will no doubt bounce back and take the title in Dubai.
However, IF Djokovic can take the title from Federer in Dubai, then maybe the Federer era is comming to an end _________________ Top Football Tipster June 2006
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Federer is lazy, not trying get some balls what he can, sometimes just stuck on place. I saw it was in match with Djokovic and Gonzalez. He need more passion. And he need pump up left hand, his hands unbalanced
I think he still has plenty of grand slams in him but there's a lot more young quality competition around now.
Tsonga, Nadal, Djokovic, Gasquet are all young players that are able to challenge him as well as the older but equally competitive Nalbandian and Ferrer.
There's others as well pressing to compete, Gonzalez, Youhzny and Murray are all capable of great things. Because of this Federer isn't able to cruise through tournaments anymore.
I think the only one which he is still the master in is the grass court but even then Nadal gave him some great competition in the final last year and who knows how some of the above mentioned might do this year. It's good times ahead for tennis where the favourite to win a tournament doesn't start heavily odds on.
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