ABN AMRO- ATP MENS

murrayfield · Classic Winner Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 719

Karlovic to beat O. Rochus 1.37

O.Rochus has a 2-0 head to head, But this was 2005, when Karlovic didnt have any decent ground shots. He's alot better now and the Surface should suit him.

football follower · Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:42 am Post subject:

Agree with Karlovic to beat O Rochus. Although Rochus has 2-0 h2h, I think Karlovic has improved since then, whilst O Rochus has declined or stayed stagnant in ability. Karlovic should hold his service games with his gun serve, and should be able to exert some pressure on O Rochus's pop gun serve. Confident Karlovic will be the victor and this my main bet of the day.

Anyone got any thoughts on KOHLSCHREIBER v ZVEREV match?

thetitan · At Stud Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2961

I think you can get a better price for Karlovic.

I'm intrigued by Youzhny vs Tipsarevic, would have thought Tipsarevic would be decent value at 4.33 Confused

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Shockjock · Group 1 Class Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 362

Tipsarevic did pull out with injury during his last match(not sure what the injury was or the severity) but he did push Fed far in the Aussie open the game before. I've not had the chance to see any Youzhny matches lately but have been watching his scoring and checking some stats and he's not seemed as solid in recent games, he is however holder of this tournment( I think?!?!?).

Maybe some value any other views?

welshie1 · Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject:

Two very short prices

Mikhail Youzhny to beat Janko Tipsarevic
Phillip Kohlschreiber to beat Zverev

Reasons on the blog

murrayfield · Classic Winner Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 719

Titan, i tipped that in the other forum Wink

hope you got on mate. I had to rush home from work for the Tipsarevic match. So no time to post in here I'm afraid. But well done titan.... we're both flying atm

welshie1 · Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:57 pm Post subject:

I am not trying to excuse my poor tennis tipping but their must be something wrong with Tennis? How can two very short odds favourites play so poorly and not win against people they should, Youzhny lost to Tipsarevic the odds I got for him were 1.28 and Kohlschreiber is now already a set down and losing 4-3 in the second set and I got him @ 1.25. I have seen this happen a lot recentley and I dont know what's wrong to be honest.

thetitan · At Stud Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2961

murrayfield, i'm riding my luck at the moment, need to make best use of this hot streak at the moment!

welshie1, it's early season so i guess strange things are happening...youzhny losing wasn't the biggest surprise as tipsarevic can play very well indeed. would have expected kohlschreiber and JC ferrero to win but i've noticed that a fair few short odds winners go down early in tournaments, esp 'insignificant' tournaments.

essentially, i tend to avoid backing short odds in tennis, except maybe federer if he was 1.3 Cheeky

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Inatimate1 · Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:30 pm Post subject:

To be honest, I have never really seen Tipsarevic as such a bad player, his only problem is inconsistency, one day he can play very well, and the next he can lose to a wildcard or a qualifier. I think at times every player has their moments of magic, it's just difficult for them to maintain their form.
Take a look at Phillipousis for example, played some great stuff on the way to a Wimbledon final, and now he's letting women fight over him on C4, and really hasn't done much in terms of Tennis since. Odds are nothing much to me really when it comes to Tennis, as with all sports, upsets aren't a non-regular occurance, they just seem to stick in the minds more than winning favs.
How often in Football, Snooker or Rugby or any other sport for that matter do you see teams or players @ 4/1 or bigger win a match-up? It then becomes a "shock" and is noticed. But sides and players are sometimes 1/4 and shorter and waltz through generally unnoticed until they are on the receiving end of an "upset".
Teams/players have "off" days, and "unfaulted" days, I know it's not Tennis, but take Liverpool at the weekend, 1/6 to win and lost to a 14/1 shot. Mansfield, Dag & Red, and Crewe last week were all around the 4/1 mark, and all 3 won against teams that on form they should have been beaten quite comfortably by.
I think that some players can just rise to the occasion and everything can go their way, whilst others can just not get it right performing something relatively easy, and it will affect them mentally, anyone can make a valid, justified tip on a players form, stamina, morale, etc... but when it comes down to it, sometimes mentally a player might meltdown and have everything go horribly wrong.
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welshie1 · Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:45 pm Post subject:

I had some decent football tips tonight and Tennis has really cost me and I dont think I will place anything for a while now well maybe not untill next week because so much football.

Shockjock · Group 1 Class Joined: 02 Feb 2007 Posts: 362

I love betting in tennis, its a sport that I feel real money can be made but at the end of the day, like Inatimate stated, it’s a game with two players and such little things have a massive affect to the outcome of the match. If one player in a team is playing bad then normally there could be someone to help or carry them, this as we all know fails in singles tennis.

I think that’s a reason that I rate mentally tough tennis players so highly as there are tough times in most games and ability is not enough to survive on its own.

I must say don’t normally bet health money on short-odds at tennis but did tonight as I felt that the form of Kohlschreiber was untouchable. I seen him play recently against Roddick and he was unplayable, had the whole package. He seemed to back that up with other results and the form seemed there.

Tonight…. I didn’t see the match but the stats say he was very poor, he failed to trouble the zverev serve enough and when he did he was just breaking breaking back or throwing it away in the next. His first serve percentage was low and second was not much better.

To conclude, I find that pretty much anyone in tennis will beat anyone no matter what the odds, you just need to find the value bets like stated above by Titan.

Anyway enough of all this tripe(just typing to relieve the pain of giving the bookies money) anyone have any fancies in the Horna match?? Actually think I’ll give it a pass.

Welshie, to rub it in, I put 1-1 in the Bristol game tonight and had no hard cash on it as I put it on the tennis. No Justice. Goodluck with the footie bets!!

murrayfield · Classic Winner Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 719

Titan stay discipline and remain 100% concentrated, like the orange juice we drink in pubs.

Simon to beat Lopez is value, his odds are roughly evens at the moment. But for me he is 1.8ish to win this. Simon is like France's answer to Andrew Murray and a very pure ball-strikier. A true tennis player. Lopez for me has a typical lefty gamestyle, big 1-2 punch, But mentally i think hes a bit fragile and just a little less talented, especially on the backhand wing.

Simon has a under estimated first serve, it reaches speeds of 130mph and he was generating it against Djokovic when he needed it. He's growing in maturity and I expect him to back up last weeks results with a solid showing here. Simon can match and out play Lopez. Just need a tad bit of luck with regards to how he is feeling on the day. But if everything goes to plan Simon targets Lopez's backhand and breaks that down, Lopez is under pressure and goes for too big a shots. As Simon's defence is also very good.

The danger is Lopez gets a high number of first serves and catches fire with the forehand.

Best of luck with this.