Miami

[jbsouz]

Hi guys,
following picks for today and tomorrow:

WTA TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI
DECHY TO D NAKAMURA @ 1.95 at Expekt
Dechy is surely not at her best but still should be too consistent for Nakamura.

WTA TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI
CIBULKOVA TO D YAN @ 1.57 at Betfred
Yan is a good defensive player but she will have to play her unusual game (i.e. to attack) against Cibulkova, who is one of the most consistent players on the tour.

ATP TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI
O. ROCHUS TO D MINAR @ 1.69 at Pinnacle
Rochus is back in form. Should be a difference in class between the players.

ATP TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI
O. ROCHUS TO D MINAR @ 1.60 at Pinnacle
Santoro's returning and passing game should be too strong for Bjorkman's serve and volley style.

ATP TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI
HAASE TO D BERRER @ 1.32 at Betfair
With 3:0 H2H and 2 wins in the last month Haase is a clear favorite. After winning Sunrise challenger last week he is in good form.

www.WinningTipster.com

[Shockjock]

I fancy Llorda today @ evens. I like the odds for a player who is having a superb start to the season and has looked solid in most of the tournements he has appeared in. I do have concerns about Llorda's 1-2 record against Melzer but not enough to put me off the punt.

[Shockjock]

Always dissapointing when your first line in the accum goes down - Rochus, the only good thing I can say about him on the day is that he found the stadium ok, Poor first and none existant second serve and that usually means game over.

Hope Llorda can win back some OLBG money.

[betking]

Agniezka Radwanska vs Michelle Larcher de Brito

Ive spoken before about Michelle being a future superstar, and its good to see her here. A 3-6 7-6 6-3 win over Makarova set up this match. Radwanska is hardly flying, and has been taken to 3 sets in 4 of her last 6 matches.

I can see Larcher de Brito taking a set at least, if not winning, so there could be some value in laying Radwanska @ 1.13.

[betking]

And Michelle Larcher de Brito wins in 3 sets, anyone else get on it?

[Shockjock]

Well done betking, didnt have anything but some small change from my OLBG money - cracking odds and superb tipping - keep it up!

[betking]

Thanks Shockjock, must admit though, I wasnt hopeful after she lost the first set 6-2! She faces Shahar Peer tomorrow which is a much sterner test, but Peer hasnt been that consistent either so would I be pushing it to suggest laying Peer @ 1.19 in the hope that De Brito takes at least another set....? Maybe worth it to small amounts methinks.

[skybluesam]

Tursunov v Lopez

Two totally unpredictable players here. Both traditionally have wildly inconsistent results and this year has been no exception. They have proven already this year that they can go from world beater one week (see Tursunov in Sydney and Lopez in Dubai) to next to useless the next (Sydney aside, Tursonov has a 3-6 record this year and Dubai aside, Lopez has won only one match this year before this week).

Tursonov has wins over Korolev and Gasquet this week, although I would dispute the merit of the Gasquet win as he appears to be totally out of form. Lopez has a decent enough looking 6-4 6-2 win over Juan Martin Del Potro. Hard to split them on this year's form then. Previous Miami form doesn't give many further clues with both having one 4th round appearance a piece (Lopez has played the tournament a fair few more times than Tursunov though.

If anything, Tursunovs form this year is probably slightly stronger with only one defeat coming to a player outside the top 15 (Sam Querrey in the Aus Open), whilst Lopez's defeats have come against the likes of Donald Young, Giles Simon and Fernando Verdasco.

Taking everything into account, I'd say Tursunov is a slight favourite and the odds reflect that. It'll take a brave man to take a pre match position on this one.

NO BET

Berdych v Ferrero

I have to say I don't rate Berdych these days, particularly on the slower type of surface we are seeing this week. His last win over a top 20 players was back in June of last year, on grass against Baghdatis. His Miami record before this year was Won 2 Lost 3.

Ferrero is hardly the model of consistancy these days but his record this year is decent enough in my view. Quarters in Sydney (final in Auckland followed by 4th round in Aus Open was followed by a trio of disappointing early round exits in Marseille, Rotterdam and Dubai). However, last week's match against Ancic saw him play some of his best tennis in a long time IMHO. This was, however, followed by a disappointing 2 and 2 defeat against Nalbandian.

Berdych leads the H2H 1-0 but that was indoors and was a tough 3 setter, so I'm more than willing to disregard that.

Basically, at the prices I'm more than willing to take a chance on Ferrero. You can't ignore Berdych's lack of wins against decent opposition and I think slowish hard courts are probably the Mosquito's best surface these days.

2 pts on Juan Carlos Ferrero to win @ 2.6

Canas v Gonzalez

Gonzalez is basically a shadow of the guy who made the Aus Open final little over a year ago. Last week, he played some of his best tennis in the second set against Ancic before inexplicably falling apart altogether in the third. He then lost in the quarters of the Sunrise challenger against Guccione, who joined Cilic and Korolev in being victors over Gonzalez this year.

Canas, as I'm sure we all know, is the ultimate ball machine. As he showed last year with victories over Fed in both Indian Wells and Miami, these courts are certainly no hindrance to him. In any match where Canas is facing off against a naturally aggressive player, it comes down to whether his opponent can hit the ball hard enough and deep enough to get through Canas, but most importantly, they must be patient enough and fit enough to engage in long rallies without going for the big shot too early (Djokovic is the absolute perfect example of this, hence the hammering he gave Canas last week). That certainly doesn't sound like a description of Fena Gonzalez right now though.

I can see Canas totally frustrating Gonzo and taking this in straight sets. His recent form is better than Gonzo's and he seems to be fully over the injury that cause him to miss the start of the year.

Recommendation: 3 pts Guillermo Canas to win @ 1.95

Igor Andreev v Kevin Anderson

I suppose the biggest question here is whether and if so to what extent Anderson will have a come down after his glorious win over Novak Djokovic. We could sit here all day and dispute the validity of the win, but it remains a fantastic win.

Andreev is basically a solid if not one dimensional Tour player who is at his best on clay, but even his clay form this year isn't particularly great. Andreev is currently on my mental note list of out of form players.

In summray, Kevin Anderson comes into this bang in form, full of confidence and now making his major breakthrough onto the main tour after a few decent years playing in college. He seems to have a level enough head on his shoulders to focus for this one and a good enough mental attitude to hit first serves if it gets close.

Recommendation: 2 pts Kevin Anderson to win @ 2.08

Stepanek v Malisse

Alien Head and the X man. I'm pretty shocked at these prices and I'll explain why. Malisse still doesn't appear to have captured his pre injury form. His win in the previous round against Nalbandian is his only of note for a long long time. It was a pretty comfortable victory too but Nalbandian has a bit of a track record for throwing in the odd shocker and I'm not going to take that form too literally. Before this week, he only had 2 wins this year and losses against "powerhouses" such as Bobby Reynolds and Robby Ginepri.

Stepanek on the other hand has been very solid this year. He has semis in Sydney and Memphis and a final in San Jose already. Last week he served for the match against Nalbandian too. May seem contradictory to pay attention to the Nalby performance whilst at the same time as discard the Malisse victory over Nalby but I think Nalby played fairly decent last week. He also has a fairly solid win over Grosjean this week. He also has a fairly decent Miami record with 4 4th round appearances in 5 attempts.

IMHO, the market has overreacted to Malisse's Nalby win and the price seems fairly generous on Stepanek.

Recommendation: 5 pts Stepanek to win @ 1.68 (NAP)

Blake v Santoro

I'm in two minds about this one. Although Blake leads the H2H 3-1, their most recent meeting was in Sydney this year which is the only one Santoro one. Another of the meetings was 6 years ago, so that's hardly relevant. Another was in last year's US Open which took Blake 5 sets to win, so plenty of evidence that Blake doesn't enjoy Santoro's particular brand of magic.

On the other hand, Blake played some of his best tennis last week and probably should have beaten Nadal. In my view, there's every chance Blake will wipe Santoro off the court in 45 minutes, but surely there's a chance the Magician will work a little magic and give him some trouble.

At 1.25 or less, I'd probably be a Blake layer, but I won't be at the current price.

NO BET

Matheiu v Moya

Another match where I think the prices are somewhat out of line. Mathieu IMO is simply the better player in better form. Mathieu's last 4 defeats have been against Roddick, Murray, Tsonga and Nadal. Pretty impressive list, and he has won 8 matches against lesser opposition in those 4 tournaments.

I watched Moya in Buenos Aires and he was pants, I watched him in Acapulco and he pants and then last week against James Blake he wasn't much better than pants. The H2H is 3-1 Moya (he's won last 3 meetings) which may be of concern but they were all in 05 and 06 and I think Mathieu is better now and Moya has regressed.

I make Mathieu a 1.6-1.7 shot for this match and I shall be betting accordingly.

4 pts Paul-Henri Mathieu to win @ 1.86 (NB)

Nadal v Kiefer

I'll be brief. I can't see Kiefer being able to win this. He doesn't have the game for it and he's not in good enough form. I'm sure the 1.22 will entice plenty of people but it's just not my type of thing.

Good luck all and all prices are from Betfair

Recap:

2pts Ferrero @ 2.6
3pts Canas @ 1.95
2pts Anderson @ 2.08
5pts Stepanek @ 1.68 (NAP)
4pts Matheiu @ 1.86 (NB)

[Shockjock]

Anyone tempted by Soderling today aganist Fed - the head-to-head records are(as always) heavyly stacked in Feds favour (4-0). But..... alot of games in these matches were settled by tiebreakers which can be russian roulette at times. Any views, could he take a set or even the match??

On a side note, can anyone recommend their prefered site to use when checking which surface a player prefers to play on?

Cheers

[skybluesam]

Davydenko v Bolelli

Davydenko seems to have refound his form to some extent after his awful ending to last year. He does still throw in the odd stinker though, as anyone who watched his match with Mardy Fish last week would agree, he pretty much threw that match away.

The question when Davydenko is a fairly short price is whether it's worth laying him, ie is his opponent capable of taking advantage. At first look, I thought no, but after a bit of digging there a are a few things to suggest that Bolleli might be capable. First up is Davydenko's poor Miami record. He's played the tournament 6 times, reaching the 4th round only once. In those 6 tournaments, he was beaten by a lower ranked player 4 times.

Bolleli, on the other hand played Miami for the first time last year. He picked up good looking wins against Monfils and Tursunov before going down to Ferrer after quite a tight first set, 7-6 (7) 6-2. This year, he has beaten Giraldo and a very decent straight sets win against Kohlschreiber. Although Bolelli is considered a clay courter, his highest point score on record is actually a hard court Challenger, and as mentioned, his Miami record suggests he can play on this surface.

I suggest a small stakes bet on Bolelli. If he doesn't perform at his best, Bolelli is capable of taking advantage imho.

Recommendation: 1 pt on Bolelli to win @ 4.3

Tsonga v Benneteau

We all know what Tsonga is capable of by now. I thought last week against Nadal that he needs to learn a new way to play other than just trying to hit the cover off the ball when playing against a guy who gets everything back. A plan B so to speak for when you're not striking the ball at 100% every time.

In Benneteau, he's up against a tricky opponent who has pulled big results out of the bag at unexpected times in the past. Benneteau will try to mix things up whilst keeping the ball in play as much as possible and then throw in some serve and volley to mis things up.

This is one of those where I think Benneteau may give Tsonga some trouble and if trading is your thing, then laying the 1.31 might be a good idea for a start. I'll be staying out of this one though as I think Tsonga is playing well enough to come through in the end and Benneteau can be very poor at times which wouldn't give us the chance to trade. Tsonga leads the H2H 1-0 but it was a close one and also on grass which suits Tsonga better.

NO BET FOR ME

Acasuso v Sela

Acasuso is an out and out clay courter. His top 5 point scoring events of the last 12 months have all been on clay. This is his 6th attempt in Miami and in the previous 5 he hasn't been past the second round. His recent form is very good, but again all of this was on clay. Before this week, he had won one match on a hard court out of five, against Allejandro Falla back in the first tournament of the year.

On the other hand, Dudi Sela is almost the complete opposite. That is, he doesn't have very good recent form but what results he does have in the book have come on hard courts. Two decent wins this week over Hyung Taik-Lee and Tommy Robredo suggest he is in good shape though.

Basically, I can't be having Acasuso at 1.65. He has a repeated history of failing on these courts and Sela seems well suited by them. I think I'll take a chance on Sela.

Recommendation: 2pt on Sela to win @ 2.52 (NB)

Johansson v Tipsarevic

Thomas Johansson is a player who appears to be somewhat past his best. His results so far this year have been mediocre. He seems to have lost pace off his serve, consistency from the baseline and the ability to be aggressive in the rallies. These are all things that Tipsarevic will be able to punish.

Tipsy is an aggressive baseline player who will try to control every rally and keep Johansson pinned behind the baseline. Last year in Indian Wells he beat Lleyton Hewitt and played extremely well and this week he has beaten Verdasco and Yen-Hsun Lu, so I think the courts suit him well enough.

I expect Tipsy to play well today and dominate most of the rallies to win.

3 pts Tipsarevic to win @ 1.88 (NAP)

Federer v Soderling

The eternal question of whether to Lay the Fed. Imo, at the moment it is worth laying Federer whenever he comes up against a good player playing well. Last year, of course, after Federer lost to Canas in Indian Wells, so many thought it was impossible the same could happen again. This year, maybe we should be a bit more heads up to the possibility of another defeat.

Soderling was disappointing against Gasquet last week and certainly is better suited by a quicker court, but a victory over Wawrinka here suggests he is capable of playing to at least a decent standard. For some reason, this is the first time he's played this tournament in 4 years so we're left guessing on this to some extent.

Federer leads the H2H 4-0 and generally in the past once someone is owned by the Fed it's a long term thing. The fact that Fish was able to overcome a 5-0 H2H last week is perhaps the most worrying thing of all for him.

I'm going to back Soderling small

1pt on Soderling to win @ 6.2

Youzhny v Almagro

At first glance, this one is dodgy for the following reasons. Almagro is a clay courter, pure and simple. He has very little form in he book on a hard court and has only played this tournament twice. His win this week was over Clement which doesn't do a great deal to left confidence. Youzhny only beat Bobby Reynolds in the first round and has been in poor form for a couple of months. The last couple of weeks have seen 1-3 record with defeats to Hewitt, Tipsarevic and Santoro. Combine that with a 1-5 record in Miami in previous years and you have a guy who isn't a solid betting proposition at 1.57

NO BET

Monaco v Ancic

I think Monaco may be underrated in this matchup. The market appears to be overreacting to Ancic's win over Murray. Ancic is a quality player, with a big serve and massive groundstrokes and also a decent Miami record, with a 5-4 record (2 of the losses were 03 and 02). However, the question is whether he should be 1.56 against a guy who is a very good player in his own right.

Monaco is top 20, and although clay is his best surface, he has his fair share of good wins on a hard court, as well as pushing Djokovic to 4 sets, including 2 tiebreakers at the US Open. Prior to that, he beat Nadal and Lopez in Cincinatti. Last week, he went down in 3 sets to Canas.

I'm going to take a chance on Monaco. It's not that I don't rate Ancic, I just think that Monaco is too good to be 2.7 on a slow hard court against Ancic.

Recommendation: 2pt on Monaco to win @ 2.7

Roddick v Minar

Wow, another scintillating late night match lol. I foresee another easy win for the favourite, but will almost certainly not get involved.

All prices from Betfair

Recap:

1 pt Bolelli @ 4.3
2pt Sela @ 2.52(NB)
3pt Tipsarevic @ 1.88 (NAP)
1pt Soderling @ 6.2
2pt Monaco @ 2.7

[gingerzola]

Have to say I couldn't switch the Youzhny-Almagro game off last night, it was one you couldn't take your eyes off. Youzhny had a full-on mental erruption and started beating himself round the head with his racket, causing blood to pour from his brow! Real epic up and down game, with Youzhny winning a tie-break in the final set that it appeared he was going to lose.

[murrayfield]

Tipsarevic to beat Youznhy 2.08 NAP

Only bet today for me and its huge.

If i was to do one of those cheesy checklists the tennis channel do...

Serve- Tipsarevic, amazing stats posted yesterday against Tojo. Youznhy however struggled on serve last night and had shoulder problems, called out the trainer to get treatment dropped 4 games in a row second set, winning about 3 points.

Forehand- Tipsarevic, very attacking flat and consistent, not many errors considering how attacking he was.

Backhand- Tipsarevic, very impressed with this shot to, he doesn't miss when he is in the mood and much like his forehand very attacking, he nails that down the line shot and inside out shot when he has to.

Movement- Tipsarevic, gets to everything and has a very low unforced error count atm, frightening speed. Youznhy is leaking errors all of the time and I fully expect Tipsarevic to take full advatange of this.

Fitness- Tipsarevic, having destroyed tojo and youznhy coming off the back of that 3 set epic last night I expect it to take alot of out him.

Mentally- Tipsarevic, without doubt. Youznhy was all over the place last night smashing himself up with a racket. Unbelievable scenes, bit worried he won't turn up today having done that to himself last night he might be too embarassed to turn up.

HTH 1-0 Janko won about 2 months ago in Rotterdamn, coming back from injury, Tipsarevic destroyed him despite getting off to a slow start. Which is probably his only weakness.

Yesterday Tipsarevic was in blistering form. Tojo wasn't playing badly, Janko just had all the answers. And I expect more of the same. Gamblers have very short memories. And I am very surprised to see his starting price.

I've taken him outright albeit at a higher price but I believe his odds are still worth a punt. I got him @ 150 and 130's, I see him getting to the semis to possibly take on Federer who he had success against in the heat of australia, if he puts in a repeat performance then we could well be looking at a huge outsider reaching the final yet again. Small stakes with the outright, but maximum value.