Miami

[football follower]

Good effort with the write ups skybluesam and murrayfield.

You have convinced me to take tipsarevic murrayfield.

Anyone got any thoughts on the Ancic v Davydenko match.

Considering taking Ancic. Davydenko leads h2h 3-2 overall, but Ancic leads the last three matches played since 2006 2-1, and Ancic also won the only hardcourt match between the pair.

Have always been a fan of Ancic and feel his serve and power game can overwhelm Davydenko. Ancic had a hard match against upcoming Monanco and I just feel he is a better overall player than Davydenko, plus you never know whether Davydenko is going to try 100% or throw the match.

Any advice on this match appreciated.

[roje]

I go with Ancic for several reasons:

1.He played 3 matches and eliminated solid players .One of them was Murray ,who has a style pretty much the same with Davydenko.In all this 3 matches he looked very confident,while Davydenko looked vulnerable.

2.He had powerful groundstrokes which can make the difference in rallies.Also ,a difference in favor of the croat is that Davydenko has a huge number of unforced errors(97 in 2 matches!!!).

3.Previous meetings doesn't count as they all were more than a year ago.

4.The service game also advantages Ancic(18 aces in 3 matches) while Davy has 9 aces in 2 matches ,and lately he makes many double faults and overall looks vulnerable on serve(he faced 8 break points with Bolelli).

[ogogo]

hi lads and laddettes.im for the grand national this weekend and after reading murrayfields write up on tipsy and enjoying a punt on the tennis anyway i shall be taking the advice.it may just pay for my weekend coming up,if not there is always ancic v the donkey davy!

[ogogo]

hi lads and laddettes.im for the grand national this weekend and after reading murrayfields write up on tipsy and enjoying a punt on the tennis anyway i shall be taking the advice.it may just pay for my weekend coming up,if not there is always ancic v the donkey davy!

[skybluesam]

In running total +2.33 pts

Blake v Stepnanek

In the previous round, Blake battled through a tough 3 setter against the magician Santoro, whilst Stepanek disposed of Xavier Malisse in straight sets, who is probably still a long way short of his best. I woudn't pay a whole lot of attention to Blake's struggles. As discussed in the preview for that match, he has regularly struggled with Santoro in the past.

Blake leads the hard court H2H 3-1, with the other match between them a clay court match won by Stepanek in 2003. Blake also has a very solid record in the US masters events. His Indian Wells record is fantastic and although Miami has never been quite as good, he did make the quarters here last year, only going down to Roger Federer. Stepanek has a very consistent Miami record, never failing to reach the third round, but never managing to get past the fourth.

I also feel the style matchup suits Blake. Stepanek will probably try to rush the net as much as possible and this isn't something Blake has much problem dealing with. I feel Blake is overpriced here and will be betting accordingly.

4 pts Blake to win @ 1.92 (NAP)

Canas v Andreev

This one is a no bet for me as the prices look about right. Andreev is solid enough and had a good win over Anderson in the last round, but I feel he will find it tough to break down Canas. This one will probably last over 3 hours with absolutely shedloads of long rallies and I think Canas will outlast Andreev.

But as I said, the prices look OK, so it's a no bet.

NO BET

Berdych v Tursunov

That previous round against Ferrero was one of the best performances I have seen Berdych put in for a long time. If he plays like that again today, he will almost certainly put away the wildly inconsistent Tursunov. The problem with Berdych is, you wouldn't bank on him playing like that again under any circumstances. He could easily come out today and be unable to get the ball over the net.

I also think that Tursunov presents totally different matchup problems. Whereas Ferrero was trying to just stay solid and force errors (and actually failing miserablly, sprayin errors all over the place himself), Tursunov will look to be on attack the whole time. Berdych leads the H2H 2-1 including a 2, 1 and 1 hammering at last year's Aus Open, however the other match Berdych won was a long 5 setter and also the only meeting they have had on US soil.

I have a sneaky feeling Berdych will underperform today. I think this will go 3 sets and 3.3 on Tursonov is big enough for me to risk that Berdych will get tight.

1.5 pt on Tursonov to win @ 3.3

Federer v Acasuso

1.07 on Federer for this one. After unsuccessfully opposing the Fed yesterday, I'm not going to go for it again today. As stated in yesterday's article, Acasuso is very much a clay courter and I'm pretty certain this is where his Miami ends. Federer wasn't really tested a great deal against Soderling, but he looked in good enough shape, to me at least, do deal with Acasuso without a great deal of problems. 6-3 6-2 or thereabouts imo.

NO BET

Youzhny v Tipsarevic

Well, how on earth are you supposed to make sense of that Youzhny match yesterday. I'm not even going to try, it was totally bizarre. All I will say is that it must have totally drained Youzhny. Combine that with the fact that Youzhny only had 1 Miami win to his name in 5 previous tournaments, and the 1-0 H2H (THIS year on a hardcourt) for Tipsarevic and you have every reason to go against Youzhny.

He will have to up his level significantly to give Tipsy a match today. Tipsy was helped a little by Johansson's poor performance yesterday, but you still have to give credit to Tipsy for a pretty good performance. He didn't spend a great deal of time on court and will only have to play to the same level again to wipe Youzhny off the court.

3pts on Tipsarevic to win @ 1.88 (NB)

Nadal v Mathieu

Some people suggesting this one may be close, but I can't see it myself. Nadal leads the H2H 7-0 and 15-3 in sets. 5 of those meetings were on a hard court, and I'd suggest all 5 were on a surface that was less favourable to Nadal than this Miami surface. Mathieu, this week, has struggled through against Cilic before beating an out of form Moya, and there's no evidence to suggest he will fare any better than usual this time against the world number 2.

Nadal in 2 sets, although Mathieu might be able keep the first one close.

NO BET

Davydenko v Ancic

Two players who I opposed as favourites yesterday, who both came through in 3 sets. Davydenko was dire for 1.5 sets before finally finding some range and putting away the Italian Bolelli. Ancic squeaked through a tiebreak in the first set, totally fell apart in the second, then blew away Juan Monaco in the third.

Hard to know exactly what to make of all that. Ancic has now had 3 tough 3 setters in this tournament and surely must feel the effects of that today. Davydenko has had 2 tough 3 setters, including a final set tiebreak in the 2nd round.

The market makes Ancic a slight favourite but I'm not sure if that should be so. This one is very unpredictable for the reasons above combined with the fact that you just don't know what Davydenko will turn up. Regardless of his first 2 performances, he might go out today and play like a true world number 4 or he might go out and be unable to find the court.

At the prices, I'm willing to take a chance on Davy playing some decent stuff and having the better recovery time.

2pts on Davydenko to win @ 2.14

Roddick v Benneteau

Benneteau played pretty solid to gain a brilliant win over Tsonga. Andy Roddick came through comfortable enough against Minar. Roddick has a brilliant Miami record and as well as winning the tournament in 04, he will be attempting to make his 4th quarter final at the event. He had been playing some of his best tennis in Dubai before taking a shock early tumble in Indian Wells.

Roddick leads the H2H 2-1. Both wins were very easy and the Benneteau win was a final set tiebreaker. I can't really see him being troubled today tbh, but will leave this one alone.

NO BET

All prices available on Betfair

Recap:
4pts Blake @ 1.92 (NAP)
1.5pts Tursunov @ 3.3
3pts Tipsarevic @ 1.88 (NB)
2pts Davydenko @ 2.14

Good luck all, input and discussions welcome as usual

[skybluesam]

In running total +9.43 pts

Two quarter finals to look at today and I feel the best bet of the week:

Blake v Nadal

The most enticing match up of the quarter finals I feel and a rematch of last week's encounter. Last week, I was firmly in Nadal's corner and believed he could finally beat Blake. The prices that day were just about dead even.

Obviously today, Nadal's win over Blake last week has to be factored into the prices. As does the fact that this surface is clearly less suitable for James Blake than the Indian Wells surface. I also feel that Nadal will be better on this surface than Indian Wells although previous year's results don't really back this up. He still has a decent enough Miami record with a final and a quarter final to his name and he's been comfortable enough this week.

So the question we have to ask is whether the factors listed above are enough to move Nadal's price from around the evens mark to 1.63. Last week, lots of people were saying Blake beat himself and Nadal didn't win it. Load of nonsense being spoke directly through people's pockets imo. Nadal's battling qualities came through and imo he struck a psychological blow to Blake who will now have a very hard time beating Nadal even on a faster hard court. So to me, yes, the price move is justified.

I don't like to describe anything as nailed on but this is my strongest bet of the week. I can't see Blake reversing form within 2 weeks when he's not playing as well as he was last week and is on a surface more in favour of Nadal than last week's was.

6pts on Nadal to win @ 1.63

Berdych v Andreev

So far this week I have opposed Berdych twice and have done my dough both times. Both times he has exceeded my expectations and played very well indeed. To do so again may seem like banging my head against a brick wall repeatedly when really somethng's telling me it's a bad idea, but I just feel that Berdych is once again underpriced and will be betting accordingly.

Let's face it, Berdych's two "impressive" victories have been against Juan Carlos Ferrero, who looks well out of his depth these days when someone is striking the ball hard with any kind of accuracy and Dimitry Tursunov who got frustrated very early on and quite frankly played an awful match. We also have to factor in the possibility Berdych won't turn up for this once more. OK, so he turned up yesterday when I thought he might not but we can't really start calling him consistent because he played well twice in a row.

At the 3.7 we're getting, I reckon Andreev is worth a pop. Played pretty well against Canas yesterday, and will probably be more suited to playing under the lights somewhat out of the heat. On the way he's played this week, Berdych is a worthy favourite and finally looking like a top 10 player, but is once again too short tonight in my view.

1.5 pts on Andreev to win @ 3.7

Recap:

Nadal 6pts @ 1.63
Andreev 1.5pts @ 3.7

Good luck to everyone whatever they decide to back and hopefully we can get some other's analysis in here once more.

All prices freely available on BF

[princefaz]

James Blake VS [b]Rafael Nadal @1.53[/b]

Got to go for Rafa for this match just for the sheer audacity of the man. He is so determined and is playing terrific this week so far. Even though Blake has a 3-1 H2H record i believe he is very unstable playing during the heat of the day, he didnt look convincing at all against stepanek and santoro, the magician had him on the ropes. Rafa will outlast him. IMO it may go to 3 sets but i cannot see Blake winning.

Igor Andreev @ 3.20 VS Thomas Berdych

I think there is real value in Igor Andreev today, even if it is to Lay Berdy. At 3.20 i believe its a steal. Granted Berdy is having a blinder and has not dropped a set, however i still believe his form is unstable. Hopefully the UE will come creeping in and Andreev can take advantage. The Russian has maria kirilenko in his corner and i just think hes on fine form this week and can pose berdy his problems. He has beaten Berrer, Anderson and Canas and they are no mugs.

Nikolay Davydenko VS [b]Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.37

Going to go for tipsy on this one just on the basis that his form in the tournament has been better and consistent. Davy has looked down and out on a number of occasions. They played once last year which Davy one but on pure form this year, i back tipsy to win in 3 tight sights. Janko +3 games interest me too @ 2.10

Roger Federer @ 1.16 VS Andy Roddick

This may not be value but a 14-1 head to head suggests the Fedster has A-Rods number. However they maybe value in laying the 1.16 and trading later, i dont think Roddicks serve will trouble Fed and that is key. The service is not fast enough.

So those are my pick.

Rafael Nadal @ 1.53
Igor Andreev @ 3.20
Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.37
Roger Federer Lay @ 1.16
[/b]

[thetitan]

1.2 for Federer represents pretty good value for me at level stakes considering the H2H.

Also think that Nadal is good value, as well as Andreev to beat Berdych who seems perenially under-priced against capable players.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[murrayfield]

Blake to beat Nadal. But trade out as soon as a break occurs
He may tire as the match progresses.

Their last encounter was a close affair and the surface really suited Nadal more than it did Blake. This time around the surface suits Blake and I think the organisers have missed a trick by having this on during the day, although Blake played well in the conditions yesterday. Blake would probably have preferred a night match. But all things considered, this should be a good trading match. I will trade out if Blake goes ahead early doors.

The surface has really speeded up as the week has progressed. The courts look a bit more worn and the balls dont seem to be checking as much.

I quite fancy Tipsarevic to beat Davydenko and Andreev to win a set against Berdych then going on to win the match. Small stakes.

Haven't been impressed with Roger so far, I may Lay but I will watch this inrunning and come to a decision.

Best of Luck guys.

[skybluesam]

In running total +11.71 pts

The other two quarter finals today and it looks a tougher day than yesterday.

Davydenko v Tipsarevic

This match has got me thinking longer and harder than probably any other match this week. It's a matchup of two guys with fairly similar styles. Both are aggressive baseline players who love to be on the front foot. The question for me is who is going to be allowed to dominate most of the rallies.

One point which must always be taken into account in the latter stages of big tournaments is the player's relative experience at the level. Tipsarevic has never played in a Masters Seriers quarter final before. There's a lot of talk of how Davydenko raises his game to it's top level consistently once we get to this stage of a Masters Series, but I'm not certain that's the case. He has a career 4-5 record in Masters quarters and along with the great victories such as beating Ferrer in Cincinatti on a hard court and Ancic in Paris indoors, there are also some less than impressive results, with 2 straight set losses to Stepanek and a clay court loss to Ancic. Pretty much like the rest of his career then, inconsistent.

So Davydenko has the edge experience wise, but Tipsarevic doesn't look like on who will let the occassion get to him and has performed at a high level in Davis Cup. So back to the question of who's going to be on the front foot. Davydenko leads the H2H 1-0, winning last year in Moscow. It's worth noting that the surface was quicker, Davydenko had home advantage and also that Davydenko was cleary at the top of his game as he won the tournament that week with wins over Tsonga, Andreev and Mathieu.

Now onto the two factors that were the biggest in my mind. First of all, Davydenko has gone to 3 tough sets in all 3 of his matches now, and has lost the first set in each one. If he starts slow again today, Tipsarevic is a very good front runner and with Davydenko surely suffering from a bit of fatigue, there's a good chance he'll see it through in straights. The other is the suitability of the court. Davydenko has previous Miami defeats to Lapentti, Horna, Monfils and Delic. Tipsarevic is playing only his second Miami but he's looked in great shape on the courts this week and picked up a great win over Hewitt last year in Indian Wells. The evidence is there that he likes these slowish US hardcourts. Also, in contrast to Davydenko, his 2nd and 3rd round wins were in straight sets and his quarter final, although it took 3 sets, can't have been too strenuous as Youzhny put up little fight after the first set.

So for me, Tipsarevic will be the fresher guy, playing slightly better tennis and enjoying the conditions more and should be able to dominate the passages of play.

Recommendation: 3pts Tipsarevic to win @ 2.72

Federer v Roddick

Now onto one of the most one sided "rivalries" in tennis history. Has one man ever owned another to this extent in sport? A 15-1 H2H record in favour of Federer tells it's own story. A few weeks ago in Dubai, Roddick was flying at the top of his game and I have a feeling might have had his best chance against Federer if he'd run into him.

This week, he has been a little shakey and far from inspired. Federer has dealt with inferior opposition this week in the way we had become used to. I'm still not convinced he's at his "best" though and Roddick must surely be fancying his chances of finally breaking the Fed voodoo tonight.

I am looking to the set betting for the value. 4.8 on 2-1 Federer looks too big. In 5 of the 16 meetings, Roddick has managed to take a set. That alone makes the bet value, but combined with the fact that this one will probably be closer than many of their encounters due to Fed being a little shakey, I'm willing to take a chance on it.

Recommendation: 1 pt on Federer to win 2-1 @ 4.8

Recap:
3pts Tipsarevic @ 2.72
1pt Federer 2-1 @ 4.8

Good luck all, feel free to chip in with constructive criticism/analysis of your own

All prices available on Betfair

[murrayfield]

Tips should beat Nikolay if he's fit. I just think Nikolay will give him too many ue's during the day. Tips has had a day to rest so hopefully he's fine. @ 2.7

Massive bet on Berdych to beat Nadal @ 2.5
Quite simply, Berdych has the best game to beat him at 1.95m. He has the ability to take the ball up high and his shots are huge. Can quite simply blast him off court. The HTH on hard courts is heavily in his favour. There is no logic in this price tag and I have took full advantage of it.

Best of Luck

[princefaz]

Looks like the donkeys deceived us again!