Miami

[murrayfield]

Yep Davydenko looks like he's back to his best. A-rod won though, shocking display by Federer to drop his service game in the final set.

[skybluesam]

In running total +8.59

Been a pretty good thread so far, up over 8.5 points with 4 winning days and 2 losing ones. Just the one match to go in what's been an entertaining Masters Series:

Nadal v Davydenko

Both of these guys are pretty much at the top of their games right now. In the semis, Nadal disposed of an in form Thomas Berdych and Davydenko outclassed Roddick. Imo, there is no reason to believe either of these guys will have any significant drop off in form going into this match, so the key will be the matchup in styles on this surface.

Davydenko's two most impressive displays in this tournament have been his two most recent. The thing is neither Roddick or Tipsarevic defend particularly well and once Davy got on the front foot in the rally he was able to dictate play and look extremely classy. Neither of those guys were able to live with him from the back and neither were ever in danger of putting enough balls back in play to frustrate Davy into errors. This most certainly does NOT apply to Nadal. The problems Nadal presents in the rallies from the back of the court will be totally different and much more difficult than those presented by Roddick and Tipsy.

Another thing that stands out is that Davy is not really the type of player we would usually look to as able to beat Nadal on a hard court. I would usually look to someone with big heavy flat hitting who can hit through Nadal. I don't really think this applies to Davy. He's clearly top quality from the back of the court but imo doesn't hit flat enough to go through Nadal. Tipsy and Rod were leaving plenty of short balls for Davydenko to step up and punish. Nadal should be able to keep a better length. Also, as I mentioned above when Davy got on the front foot in those rallies, he completely dominated with neither Roddick or Tipsy able to play effectively off the back foot. Nadal won't mind playing off the back foot at all.

Another worry for Davydenko is that there has been plenty of evidence this week that this court is plenty slow enough to prevent guys who usually DO have enough to hit through Nadal from doing so. Berdych and Blake hold positive H2H with him and have ideal games to take him on and neither were able to beat him.

My judgement is that Davydenko has probably been made to look slightly better from the back than he really is (not doubting his class for one second here btw before people jump on me for it) and that unlike against Rod and Tipsy, simply getting them on the back foot won't be enough to win the point. Nadal will work hard and keep getting the ball back in play and frustrate Davydenko into errors. I see a comfortable win for Nadal.

4pts on Nadal to win @ 1.55

[thetitan]

had a hefty bet on nadal when he went a set down, always seems to come back and i never thought davy could maintain that level - but credit to him, he actually managed to improve, and nadal had no answer.

he was on another level today and would have beaten most players, such a shame that he has this cloud over him, he'll never get the credit he deserves.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[betking]

I forgot all about the match!!

[Shockjock]

Had the cash on Davydenko, the last three matches of the Miami were the best games of tennis I have seen Davy play. Nadal helped a touch in the final with some UF Errors put he couldnt live with Davydenko's play on the day. Davydenko played like two totally different players in this tournament, very poor then very good.

Good to see a few people chipping in with comments again, cracking write ups especially from skybluesam.