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richardmcfc
Group 1 Class
Joined: 09 May 2007
Posts: 414
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 Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:51 pm Post subject: Backing First Set Loser System |
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Evening fellas.
Have been betting on Tennis for a while now and it often occurs to me that if you back the player who has LOST the first set, then over a tournament you usually end up in profit. This system is something that I have personally been using for the past couple of months and true to form my tennis betting has become more succesful recording a healthy profit. Obviously you have to have common sense and not for example back an unknown Lithuanian to come back agasint Federer but in general its not to hard to realise which matches to target.
Im now going to keep track of this system on here to see if it really works over a prolonged period of time. The strike rate may not intially seem good, but from what I have seen so far, it works. I will start with tonights match and a £10 back.
Canas v Andreev
Canas loses the first set and so is backed at 3.00 to win the match. £1 bet placed.
Lost
New Bank £9 |
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Lampah
Group 2 Class
Joined: 10 Dec 2007
Posts: 225
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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I do this now and then too. It has come in on occasion. However I wouldn't say I am ahead over the years. I did that yesterday on Tsonga. When he lost the first set and his odds went to 1.91. I backed him.  I would be very interested to see further stats on this.
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| Obviously you have to have common sense and not for example back an unknown Lithuanian to come back agasint Federer but in general its not to hard to realise which matches to target. |
Where would you draw that line? Just any player thats ranked higher than the winner of the first set? Current form? Does the surface they play on come into the equation? |
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Betfairalfie
At Stud
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 4892
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:23 am Post subject: |
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Good luck richard.
My views if your interested;
Never do this blindly. Select your games with care. Ideally your looking for tight HtoH (check that they don't show many 2-0 or 3-0 in their history) and maybe a slow starting player.
Check recent form.
Obviously the best of 5 set men's matches are preferable to the best of 3 set ones, but the swing after first set victory in 3 set matches will be much higher.
BUT it is often true that the market over-reacts to a first set win.
I'd say it was better to trade this over-reaction than punt it.
You can also back 2-0 (or 3-0) then Lay off after your selected player wins first set, and in the more significant matches you can cover the bet by laying your player to win first set. This used to work a treat on Roger "ATM" Federer matches 
Be Lucky  |
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richardmcfc
Group 1 Class
Joined: 09 May 2007
Posts: 414
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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Backed R Nadal at 2.90 to beat J Blake after losing first set.
Won
New Bank : £11.90 |
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