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skybluesam
Group 2 Class
Joined: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 109
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 Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 1:22 am Post subject: Davis Cup Quarters |
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OK guys, we're back up and running again after a well earned few days off.
Russia v Czech Republic
Well the first thing to mention has to be the surprise team selections the Russians have made. Safin and Andreev will play singles on the opening day despite the presence of Davydenko and Youzhny in the side. Safin faces Berdych and Andreev will play Stepanek.
Berdych, despite worries about his mental fragility actually has a very good Davis Cup record at 15-4 and is at home on red clay. Safin has only won one match this year and as far as I'm concerned will have to prove himself again before I can trust him to win a match like this. I actually think the 1.52 on Berdych is too big here, if he plays anything like he did last week it will be very hard for Safin to stop him.
4pts on Berdych to win at 1.52
Andreev is very good on clay and played well enough last week to make him favourite for this. The second match is a no bet for me, but I will be looking to back Russia after the first match if Berdych wins. They always have the option to bring in Davydenko on the final day if necessary.
Argentina v Sweden
Argentina have an incredible home record in the Davis Cup and will prove way too strong for the Swedes here over the course of the weekend. The only interest I will be taking in this tie for now will be on Acasuso at 1.5 to beat Soderling who retired ill from the Miami Masters last week. I believe Acasuso is the better player on a clay court, has a decent winning record in Davis Cup and has the home crowd behind him.
3 pts on Acasuso to win at 1.5
Germany v Spain
Rafael Nadal makes a rare Davis Cup appearance here and his presence should be enough to take the Spaniards through. He looked in a different league to Kiefer in Miami and should be good for 2 wins here. Lopez/Verdasco are a reliable and experienced doubles pairing, but may struggle against Kohlschreibre/Petzschner on an indoor court.
David Ferrer, though, appears to be in dreadful form so at around 1.3, they are plenty short enough. I'll be taking an interest in the Germans at 3.95 and in Kohlschreiber at around evens to beat Ferrer on opening day. Kohl should excel on an indoor court and Ferrer will have to improve considerably on his performances of the last few weeks to trouble him.
1pt on Germany to win the tie at 3.95
2pts on Kohlschreiber to win at 2.02
USA v France
The withdrawal of Gasquet and Tsonga has all but turned this into a non event imho. The Bryans are almost certain to take the doubles and Roddick/Blake both have fantastic Davis Cup records and these fast courts will suit them down to the ground. For now, I'll hold off and say no bet on this tie.
Recap:
4pts Berdych @ 1.52
3pts Acasuso @ 1.5
1pt Germany @ 3.95
2pts Kohlschreiber @ 2.02
Good luck all |
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penypicker
Group 2 Class
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 188
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:47 am Post subject: |
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| Are the ties all to be played over the following days? Sporting bet has the match ties to be played next december O_o |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2966
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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agree with acasuso, looks a cracking shout  |
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Shockjock
Group 1 Class
Joined: 02 Feb 2007
Posts: 367
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm all for first time records but not when it crushes my main bet, Safin 0-2 and comes back to win 3-2 for the first time in his career. |
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deco121
Stallion
 Read My Blog!
Joined: 08 Aug 2006
Posts: 8860
Location: Cork, Ireland
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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just saw that result now - what a comeback! 
Had a few quid on Berdych @ 1.45 this morning and after the first two sets he hit 1.07 so I traded out and went off out - thank god for the exchanges these days. 
Hard luck with that one Shockjock 
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Shockjock
Group 1 Class
Joined: 02 Feb 2007
Posts: 367
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Nice call on your trading Deco, you live and learn with your betting and I will have to make an attempt at trading on Betfair! Something I have never got involved in but results like that show the benefit. |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2966
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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what the hell happened to acasuso?
winning only 5 games in the whole match, at home, on his favourite surface?!  |
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princefaz
Group 2 Class
Joined: 18 Feb 2008
Posts: 104
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| Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Guys i really think the davis cup is really unpredictable its like the lottery honestly. You dont know how committed guys are their country these days. |
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penypicker
Group 2 Class
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 188
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:53 am Post subject: |
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| Blake winnin after looking like the game was gone was golden |
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princefaz
Group 2 Class
Joined: 18 Feb 2008
Posts: 104
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| yeah! At one particular stage Blake was 16/1! |
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murrayfield
Classic Winner
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 722
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Andreev, Acasuso, Berdych from the fifth set onwards, Mathieu from match point onwards- had shockers! Davis cup is predicatably unpredictable. Erm an early shout out to titan, watch out for blake v nishikori 2, might get some early value |
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penypicker
Group 2 Class
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Posts: 188
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| Posted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 6:40 am Post subject: |
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| Brayns lost O_O |
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