Laying the sub 1.10's to Trade

[The Wednesday]

Can some of you shrewdies tell me if this is too simple:


The really heavy favourites are around 1.07-1.15 before the event.
Therefore there is very little downside and massive upside possible.

Tennis odds change wildly point by point.

Whilst the federer's and Nadal's obviously win far nore than they lose, they dont win every game during the match.

Is it right therefore to assume that there is one hell of a trading opportunity by laying these heavy favourites and trading any upward movement?

Does anyone do this?

Even if the favourite's price never goes up, you still have plenty of time to trade out for a small loss (The loss can only be small as it has nowhere to go!!).

Please, somebody tell if this is nonsense!!!

[delakingois]

Nope, I do this quite often as, like you say, there are usually many opportunities in the first set to make the trade and your liability is tiny.

On rare occasions it pays off big time (see Nadal's loss the other day to Ferrero for an example!).

[jwlester]

I've tried this in American Football too... there's often wild swings in fortune. Also some big wins like the last Super Bowl.

In the first half underdogs often do better than expected - even a field goal on the first possession often leads to big enough change to cash out.

[The Wednesday]

Thanks for the replies.

It was the Nadal match yesterday and todays Djokavic Match that really got me thinking about it.

I have recently been trading the pre match price of the favourite with odds between 1.4-1.8.
Basically because the odds of favourites seem to drop as people pile on close to the off. this goves opportunity to Lay off before a ball has been hit.
Its small beer at the moment, but i am thinking if you can get enough matched......

I think i will take acloser look at laying the certs from now on.

cheers again.

[Inatimate1]

two sports in my opinion which do see shifts in odds of pre-match 1.1 or shorter favourites are Basketball and Cricket, due to the fact that a lot of runs/points are involved, scores change very quickly, and often the price can hit in excess of double the ticks of the starting price in the space of a couple of minutes.
Boston Celtics on Tuesday night are one example of this where their price stayed around the same mark even when 10pts up at the end of the first quarter, and at one stage there was a flip-flop when the Cavs led by 6pts. One of the only sports where if there's a very early 1.01 or 1.02 its probably best to Lay off as more often than not they become over 1.05 to back.

But even in tennis where its a solo effort, early on, favourites can drift quite a bit after only 2 or 3 minutes. I'm pretty sure Federer who started as a 1.06/1.07 shot today was backed at 1.12 or higher when 15-40 down in one of his service games in the first set, and Henin was 1.01 at *2-0 in the second set today, and WTA tennis usually has more breaks than a Kit-Kat multipack, needless to say she got broken, and went on to lose the match as well.

Either best to leave favourites of this nature alone until they trade at over 1.14 very early on, or just leave them to win in my opinion
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Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition

[The Wednesday]

Federer started at 1.07 to back and 1.08 to Lay. When I looked at the graph well into the game (I missed the early part of it) he had traded at 1.16.

I presume this is when he was break points down as you suggest or during the first set tiebreak..

So even in match that was won relatively comfortably, there was upto 8 tick profit available.

[delakingois]

I've just laid Wawrinka at 1.37 - I can't see this one being a walk in the park and there should be opportunities to trade at some point.

[thetitan]

i also think wawrinka looks very short...for me he's in the same league as the murray's and the gasquet's of this world...young, very promising, hugely talented, but very erratic.

although i'd fancy him to win, 1.37 is just far too short...all the same, should get a shorter price in play to Lay, maybe looking to Lay around 1.2-1.23
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[The Wednesday]

I have managed a massive all green of 1.91!!! (I knew you would be impresed )

I backed Warwinka this morning at 1.38, laid at 1.36 and then hedged.

This time next year.........................

Good luck all.

Thinking of laying Federer with a view that Stepanek wont just roll over

[delakingois]

Blake is the most frustrating tennis player in the game. Sublime one minute, absolutely dog-awful the next.

EDIT: yes! He breaks back. And I green up. Splendid.

[The Wednesday]

In the space of 2 games both you have good trades.

Warwinka was at 1.24 at one point now 1.7+

Good calls both of you.

[thetitan]

yep, somehow wawa managed to chuck the set away...pretty good stuff trading the 'WTA players in disguise' on the ATP tour...wawa, gasquet, murray, blake are just a few of the more temperamental ones...but on clay, you should get enough swings to have a few decent trades.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.