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jwlester
Handicapper
Joined: 12 Dec 2007
Posts: 12
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 Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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I've tried this in American Football too... there's often wild swings in fortune. Also some big wins like the last Super Bowl.
In the first half underdogs often do better than expected - even a field goal on the first possession often leads to big enough change to cash out. |
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Inatimate1
At Stud
Joined: 22 Oct 2005
Posts: 2506
Location: Prenton Park TRFC
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| Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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two sports in my opinion which do see shifts in odds of pre-match 1.1 or shorter favourites are Basketball and Cricket, due to the fact that a lot of runs/points are involved, scores change very quickly, and often the price can hit in excess of double the ticks of the starting price in the space of a couple of minutes.
Boston Celtics on Tuesday night are one example of this where their price stayed around the same mark even when 10pts up at the end of the first quarter, and at one stage there was a flip-flop when the Cavs led by 6pts. One of the only sports where if there's a very early 1.01 or 1.02 its probably best to Lay off as more often than not they become over 1.05 to back.
But even in tennis where its a solo effort, early on, favourites can drift quite a bit after only 2 or 3 minutes. I'm pretty sure Federer who started as a 1.06/1.07 shot today was backed at 1.12 or higher when 15-40 down in one of his service games in the first set, and Henin was 1.01 at *2-0 in the second set today, and WTA tennis usually has more breaks than a Kit-Kat multipack, needless to say she got broken, and went on to lose the match as well.
Either best to leave favourites of this nature alone until they trade at over 1.14 very early on, or just leave them to win in my opinion
_________________
Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition
3rd in Cheltenham Festival Competition 2008 |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2966
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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i also think wawrinka looks very short...for me he's in the same league as the murray's and the gasquet's of this world...young, very promising, hugely talented, but very erratic.
although i'd fancy him to win, 1.37 is just far too short...all the same, should get a shorter price in play to Lay, maybe looking to Lay around 1.2-1.23 |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2966
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| yep, somehow wawa managed to chuck the set away...pretty good stuff trading the 'WTA players in disguise' on the ATP tour...wawa, gasquet, murray, blake are just a few of the more temperamental ones...but on clay, you should get enough swings to have a few decent trades. |
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ad1974
Handicapper
Joined: 23 Oct 2007
Posts: 17
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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Spotted this thread last nite.. managed to get back early from work and just Lay rog at 1.1...
All green now 
Good spot the wednesday!! |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2966
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| Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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really open tournament now, almost impossible to even fathom that nadal/federer wouldn't win this  |
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fairfranco
Stallion
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 6116
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: |
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anyone know what price serina hit before losing?
i went out when she was 3-1 up and looking like hammering safina so amazed she's gone out. she was 1.1 then so imagine she was even lower after a 6-2 set win.
lots of heavy favourites going out this week so a rare chance to win outright with these lays. |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2966
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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not going to happen!! i know football well enough to know when there will be early goals and when there wont
obviously i dont get every game right (noone does) but i get over 80% right |
IMO you'd be better off backing in the 'time of first goal' markets, much better value and less hassle
i think you'll realise how difficult trading unders is when you get a game which has 3 goals in the first 10 mins...trust me, one will come along soon  |
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Betfairalfie
Stallion
 Read My Blog!
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 6899
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| Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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trader1204 - why not start a blog and show us how easy it is. I am one of those who have tried it and been stung.
Over-confident statements like "early goals are not going to happen" show that you've not been stung yet, but it will happen. Probably just as soon as you start staking over-confidently.
Good luck though. |
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fairfranco
Stallion
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 6116
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23RedRaider
Group 3 Class
Joined: 27 Sep 2006
Posts: 66
Location: Cambridgeshire
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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What happened to trader1204 and his posts / blog?
He's left the building by the look of things  |
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BONNETER
2yo
Joined: 11 Feb 2007
Posts: 4
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| Posted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 12:00 am Post subject: TENNIS TRADING |
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Hi
This is my first posting but I thought you might be interested in the results of my most recent trades using a system I bought.
DEMENTIEVA v MAURESMO £42.47 profit
BERDYCH v YOUZHNY £42.62 profit
STARACE v ROBREDO £42.59 profit
DIMITROV v SIMON £42.98 profit
ZVONAREVA v RAZZANO £32.42 loss
LJUBICIC v FERRER £41.25 profit
STAKHOVSKY v MURRAY £43.10
All trades were done to £100 stakes |
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