Grand Prix 2007

[betking]

I had a big write up planned for this tournament, but I forgot to post it so most of it is irrelevant now

Anyway onto Sunday's action...



Mark Selby vs Liu Song
Li Song @ 2.62 (13/8)

On paper this should be a straightforward win for World Championship runner up Selby. However, I dont think it will be.

Selby has started this tournament with 4-2 defeats to Dave Harold and Matthew Stevens, and hasnt looked too good in those matches.

Song has started with a win and a loss. He went into a 3-0 lead against Peter Ebdon, before Ebdon produced a great comeback to win 4-3. Song then crushed Dave Harold 4-1.

Selby has looked poor and at times even uninterested, whereas Song has been played some good snooker and will be full of confidence. Selby may well pull his sleeves up and battle to a win, but I would side with Song here, and his price is too big. At the very least, Song is worth taking to trade off, as his price will shorten if/when he takes the lead.
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Ronnie OSullivan vs Dominic Dale
Ronnie O Sullivan @ 1.4 (2/5)

Yes I know, its not a very original pick, however, its a solid one.

Ronnie started with a 4-0 demolishing of Mark Joyce, before playing the battling Tom Ford. After taking the first frame with a 123 break, Ford won the next 3 frames to lead 3-1. Ronnie however, dug deep and upped a gear to run out a 4-3 winner.

Dominic Dale also enjoyed a hard fought 4-3 win over Tom Ford, but then went down 4-3 to Steve Davis, the same Steve Davis who had earlier been beaten 4-0 by Gerard Greene.

Dale is not on top form, whereas Ronnie is playing very well. If you're not playing well when Ronnie is, you wont beat him. So yeah, its unoriginal, but I fully expect Ronnie to win all his group games, much like he did last year.
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Shaun Murphy vs Stuart Bingham
Shaun Murphy @ 1.57 (4/7)

Murphy breezed past Ben Woollaston 4-0 in his first match, before coming through a tough match 4-2 with an in form Stuart Pettman. He had to dig deep for the win, but he pulled it off in an entertaining match.

Bingham's first match ended in a 4-0 defeat, to the aforementioned Stuart Pettman. He recovered to beat Ding Junhui 4-1 in his second match.

Looking at Murphy's matches, an easy win and a hard fought win, he is a man in form, but who still has a gear or two left.

Bingham was destroyed in his first match by an in form player, but then came up against Din Junhui, and easily dispatched him 4-1. While this win looks good on paper, Ding played poorly, and had also suffered a 4-1 defeat earlier to Marco Fu. Ding has looked extremely uninterested, and looks like he cant wait for the flight home. So his win now doesnt look so good.

Murphy looks the man they all have to catch in Group D, and he should make it 3 wins out of 3 in this one.
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[betking]

Joe Delaney vs Liu Song
Liu Song @ 1.53 (8/15)

Liu Song has played some very good snooker here, with 2 wins from 4 is a win away from the knockout stages. This is a must win game for him, he has to win and hope Mark Selby doesnt, and if Selby win, Song must win by a better score than Selby to go through.

His ooponent, Joe Delaney, has lost all four of his matches, and has lost his last 2 matches 4-1. He's out of the tournament and has no momentum. Song has the confidence and momentum, and should prevail here.
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[Inatimate1]

Ken Doherty v Ricky Walden
Ken Doherty @ 1.72

Doherty had a poor start to his tournament today, beaten 4-3 against qualifier Michael Judge, he will now know that this is a must win game if he wants to reach the next stage against the groups other qualifier in Mark Walden.
Walden himself was impressive in beat Ian McCulloch to get off to a good start in aiming for a place in the last 16, but Doherty is going to be a tougher ask for the qualifier here, I expect Doherty to raise his game a few bars for this match, he had a couple of chances to see off Judge this evening but failed to take them, and knowing that this is in a way a "do-or-die" match for him as he has been handed a life-line in a way as the other top 16 seed Mark Williams was also beaten today, he should have the mentality to get through this match despite Walden showing some good snooker at times in his opener
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[betking]

John Higgins vs Mark King
John Higgins @ 1.4 (2/5)

John Higgins, with 2 wins from 2 (4-2 over Tian Pengfei and 4-0 over Andrew Norman) faces Mark King, who has a win and a loss to his name here (4-1 win over Andrew Norman and beaten 4-0 by Ryan Day).

Higgins has looked good in both his matches so far, and the game against Tian Pengfei was a tough one, as Pengfei looks a good player. He followed this up by beating the potential group whipping boy, Andrew Norman.

King started his tournnament by beating the aforementioned Norman, but then was totally outplayed by Ryan Day in a 4-0 defeat.

If Higgins plays the way he has been, he should have more than enough to win this match.
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Nigel Bond vs Andrew Norman
Nigel Bond @ 1.72 (8/11)

Nigel Bond started the tournament off with a battling 4-2 defeat to Ryan Day, and followed this up with an impressive 4-2 win over Tian Pengfei, who I mentioned above as being no pushover. He comes up against Andrew Norman here, who has lost 4-1 to Mark King, and 4-0 to John Higgins. I feel Bond has enough skill and experience to give him the win here, and at a bigger price than I expected.
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[welshie1]

Ryan Day to beat Tian Pengfei @ 1.44

Ryan Day is starting to look like a top class snooker player and he has opened up his campaign with 2 out of 2 victorys, Tian ahs struggled and has lost both of his opening matches, he is showing heart but I think he is coming up against the 2nd best player in this group in Day who is rightfully behind Higgins and he may well find it hard

Mark Allen to beat Ricky Walden @ 2

Walden has made a good start to the tournament winning both matches but this the kind of tournament which you will find hard to go unbeaten, only the really top players such as Ronnie OSullivan will come out of groups like this untouched. Allen made a big impact last year and beat Mark Williams last night and is a player that is suited to this kind of format

[betking]

Peter Ebdon vs Barry Hawkins
Peter Ebdon @ 1.67 (4/6)

This is a much better price than I expected. Ever since Ebdon came from 3-0 down to win his first group match, he has looked in awesome form. He won all 5 matches in his group, and it wasnt an easy group either. He also came from behind to beat World Championship runner up Mark Selby, and has showed tremendous determination to go with his fine form.

Hawkins scraped into the last 16 by virtue of frame difference, at the expense of Stephen Hendry and Rory McLeod. 3 wins from 5 in his group, but this includes wins over Jamie Cope (who lost all 5 matches), and Stephen Maguire (who had already qualified as group winner).

Overall Ebdon's form and experience will count for a lot here, and he should extend his winning run here and gain a place in the quarter finals.
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Shaun Murphy vs Ryan Day
Shaun Murphy @ 1.75 (8/11)

Murphy looked impressive in his group games, winning 4 of 5, going down by just a frame in the other match. He was very consistent, and going through as group winner will only increase his confidence further.

Day looked good at times in his group, but at other times looked poor. This kind of patchy form won't be helpful to him now its a sudden death format.

Shaun Murphy's consistency and good form should give him the extra edge to advance past Ryan Day here.
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Joe Swail vs Marcus Campbell
Joe Swail @ 1.62 (8/13)

Joe Swail has really impressed me in this tournament so far. Hes looked very good in all of his group matches, winning his first 4, losing the 5th when he'd already qualified. An impressive win over the in form Jimmy Michie was the standout for him.

Campbell qualified thanks to winning a "do or die" 5th group stage match over Michael Holt. 2 of his wins were over Graeme Dott and Fergal O'Brien, who lost all 9 of their matches (O'Brien won the match between the pair).

I just feel Joe Swail has the perfect combination of momentum and being in fantastic form. It will take a lot to beat Swail in this mood, and I dont think Campbell will have enough.
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[Rads]

Here is the last 16 draw and previous head to head's if it helps anyone

Joe Swail v Marcus Campbell (Never played)
Ronnie O'Sullivan (1) v Michael Judge (0) (5-0 Welsh 04)
Peter Ebdon (0) v Barry Hawkins (4) (4-5 LG Cup 03) (3-5 British 04) (3-5 Welsh 05) (3-5 Grand Prix 05)
Shaun Murphy (1) v Ryan Day (1) (0-3 Grand Prix 06) (9-4 Malta 07)
Ali Carter (0) v Joe Perry (1) (7-9 UK 04)
Ricky Walden v Gerard Greene (Never played)
Stephen Maguire v Liu Song (Never played)
John Higgins (3) v Marco Fu (3) Draw (1) (3-5 Grand Prix 2000) (3-5 Scottish 2000) (4-4 Prem 03) (6-2 Prem 04) (6-1 Prem S/F 04) (5-3 Irish 04) (3-5 Malta 07)

There are some intresting head to head stats there, Barry Hawkins 4-0 up against Ebdon is the most surprising, also John Higgins has not had it all his own way against Marco Fu in the 7 matches they have played.

I'm going for Joe Perry @ 2.25 to beat Ali Carter. Joe has been playing some good Snooker in the run up to the Grand Prix, he quite recently won a Pro-Am in Prestatyn. Carter won all his 5 matches in the group stages, but its like starting again now as the tournament becomes a knockout.

[welshie1]

I agree with the Call of Ebdon to beat Hawkins

Ebdon is a very good experienced player who I think will start to play better as the tournament goes on he called this tournament as 'Match Practice' in the Group Stages but when you get out of their players start to think they can win it and the last 16 format will suit Ebdon better. Hawkins came through a very tough group and was made to work for his place in the last 16 he came through on Frame difference and he will find it hard against Ebdon

[brewster39]

What a final! Marco Fu deserves that, two great players in the final - super clearance from Fu though. O'Sullivan played really well, but Marco Fu wow
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[betking]

Certainly was a fantastic final. The clearance Fu made to make it 8-6 was superb.

I am a little disappointed though, I've backed Fu a few times before in tournament outrights when hes been in good form, and hes fallen in the next match after I've bet. I avoided taking him this time (was still 7/1 after beating Higgins) and he wins...typical! Doesnt matter though, it was a great tournament, and very profitable too
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