UK Championship discussion thread

[betking]

Maplin UK Championship, 8th-16th December 2007


Outright Market

I was kicking myself after last month's NI Trophy, after Fergal O'Brien reached the final. I'd taken him Each Way in both the 2 previous tournaments (Shanghai and the Grand Prix) at over 100/1, and decided against it last month because he looked in poor form. Typical! So I'm looking to get back on track here with an outright winner.

I've looked at the draw from a few different angles, and only one name stands out each time, and thats Shaun Murphy.

Murphy has been in good form in the last 2 tournaments, and has been within touching difference of the final each time. In the Aberdeen Grand Prix in October, he reached the semi final, where he faced Ronnie O'Sullivan. He was within a frame of victory before Ronnie pulled off a fantastic comeback to take a 6-5 victory. Then at last month's Northern Ireland Trophy, he again reached the semi final, this time facing off against Stephen Maguire. It was a high quality match that could've gone either way, and eventually Murphy went down by the same scoreline of 6-5.

The dangers in his half of the draw are Stephen Maguire (who I dont think will continue his form as last month), Ken Doherty (birth of his child may cause him to lose focus, plus hes not in the best of form), Peter Ebdon (who Murphy has beaten in the last 3 tournaments) and Ding Junhui (who I feel is facing a "shock" early exit here).

Shaun Murphy @ 8/1 Each Way (Or for trading, whichever you prefer) is the standout bet for me in this market.


In the other half of the draw its closer to call, but I wouldnt be surprised to see a resurgent Ryan Day (33/1) face off with John Higgins (10/1) in the semi final, so I may have a small stakes interest there.

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1st round matches

Ken Doherty vs Nigel Bond

While I wouldnt be surprised to see Ken win this, like I mentioned earlier, the birth of his first child may be a factor here. Lack of sleep, lack of focus, both could come into play here. Bond isnt playing badly either, so the potential for an upset is definatly there. Small stakes as I'll be watching Ken closely, but my picks would be

Lay Doherty @ 1.43 for trading
Back Bond +2.5 frames @ 1.8 for trading

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Stephen Maguire vs Joe Swail

Swail is in solid form, if nothing spectacular. Maguire will be confident after winning the NI Trophy last month, but despite this, hes not the most consistent of players. Everytime it looks like things have "clicked" for him, he disappoints. The price for Maguire is far too short (1.39). Plus winning tournaments doesnt guarantee a good run, look at GP winner Marco Fu, who fell at the first hurdle in the NI Trophy. I'll be laying Maguire here with the option to trade.

Lay Maguire @ 1.39 for trading

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Peter Ebdon vs Ian McCulloch

Ebdon has been in good form, reaching the last 2 quarter finals (3 if you include Pot Black), unfortunately for him he ran into the in-better-form Shaun Murphy each time. McCulloch's run at the NI Trophy flattered him a llittle, and he was "found out" when he lost 5-0 to Neil Robertson in the 3rd round. It doesnt sound that bad, as Robertson is a class player, but Robertson has been woefully out of form for some time now. For me, Peter Ebdon seems massively overpriced here @ 1.59 on Betfair (very limited liquidity as of time of typing), and even the bookie's price of 1.44 is attractive. The defending champion will be up for this, and won't want a 1st round exit here.

Back Ebdon @ 1.44

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Shaun Murphy vs Paul Davies

I've already spoken at length about Murphy, so I wont repeat myself here. The longer format suits the better players more, and Murphy should take this comfortably. His price for the match is very short though (1.28) so it may pay to take Murphy -3.5 frames. Meaning as long as Davies wins no more than 5 frames, the bet wins. Certainly worth an interest for trading at the very least.

Back Murphy @ 1.28
Back Murphy -3.5 frames @ 2.00 for trading
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[man o bong]

Really nice editorial there bud.

I think i might even invest a little "real" on a bit of this.

Nice one
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[betking]

mob which market are you referring to?

Doherty losing to Bond meant both the Doherty Lay and the Bond +2.5 came in, but Maguire's storming win meant there was no chance to trade out.

Ebdon leads 5-3 overnight whereas Shaun Murphy let a 4-1 lead slip to be 4-4 as things stand.

A good day overall, but will be looking for Ebdon and Murphy to kick on. Not touching any of tomorrow's other matches, even though I do like the look of Higgins @ 1.48, hes admitted hes not practicing much lately, which has put me off. I like Perry @ 2.68 too, but will see how the match starts before getting involved. The only other game that interests me tomorrow is Day/Fu, Day @ 1.8 looks nice, but need to check some things before committing
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[man o bong]

Murphy, excites me as he is undoubtably a big talent, when channeled i think he is world title material for sure
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[betking]

Yeah have to agree. If hes in form next year I can see him challenging for the World Championship again, seems a long time ago he won it. Must admit he worried me a little in the last 3 frames today, seemed to go off the boil a little. Hopefully he'll come back tomorrow with a clear head...
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[betking]

Im angry, frustrated and disgusted with Peter Ebdon right now. He lead 5-0, 6-3 and 7-5 before going down 9-8. Very, very disappointed right now.
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[richardmcfc]

Managed to get on Holt when he was 5-3 down to Ronnie. He was 8's so took a smallish stake on him. He's managed to level it now to 5-5 so fingers crossed.

[welshie1]

Mark Allen to beat Mark Williams

This Mark Allen looks like a very talented player, he beat Stephen Hendry in the 1st round and he looks like a player who has an outside shot of winning this UK Championship. The youngster really came on to the scene at the end of last season and has really improved his game, and the win against Hendry really showed that. Williams is one of the best Snooker players seen in the last 10/15 years but since he won the China Cup 2 years ago his career has really gone downhill, I was very surprised that he beat Ricky Walden in the 1st round. That win could give him some confidence but this lad Allen is going to be exceptionally confident after beating such a good player in the 1st round and I really fancy the Northern Irishman to win.

[betking]

I misread Allen/Williams start time earlier, I thought it was tomorrow Looking good so far welshie
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[DiceBoy]

I stuck some cash on Fu and Bond last week...two unsexy players who seem to always offer great odds and get into a position where you can Lay them off. I think I'd prefer to do this than risk anything significant on one of the top guys

[welshie1]

So many good players are out already none of the top guns have really started performing in the Ranking Events this season, I can only think of Maguire, Murphy and the Rocket who are performing well on a consistent basis

[betking]

What is it with players throwing away leads this week?

Ebdon lead 5-0 (and 6-3 and 7-5) but lost to McCulloch 9-8.

Carter lead (I think) 8-3 and lost to Hawkins 9-8.

Allen was leading 4-0 and lost to Williams 9-5.

Its put me off betting much on the tournament, as players who have been in fine form, looking very strong, then just collapse
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