super league grand final play-off friday 5th oct.

topnotch

leeds -6 to beat wigan at evens Bet365 let me just start by saying that i support neither club, but i would love the warriors to win the grand final from 6th place and create history. it would be a wonderful story in one of the most entertaining sports in the world. HOWEVER, i cannot see how they can beat leeds on friday. wigan shocked themselves beating bradford (while leeds were resting), they were almost on their knees along with hull a week later as leeds pushed the saints all the way aswell. having played two such high intensity games back to back compared to leed's one i can't see how they will be able to keep up the effort for the 80 minutes. it is no secret leeds rely on the pace and quick play the ball and passing for success and to beat them you have to defend intensely without let-up. wigan could match that during the season and are undefeated against them this season. but realistically this is one match too far in my opinion. the minus 6 is much too short here, as leeds should have more left in the tank and can open up the warriors in the later stages of the game. i am tempted to go so far as to say this could be the bet of the month.
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andy1965 · Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:21 am Post subject:

Excellent post topnotch,i too feel this game could be one too far for the Warriors,they have been magnificent in recent weeks beating Saints to qualify then Bradford away.then Hull away.Doesn t get any easier Leeds away and they did look out on their feet towards the end of last weeks game,so -6 about Leeds looks tempting.
But,having said that do you get the feeling it could be Wigans year,many a person have written them off since before the Saints game,and they ve answered all with great performances,plus they have been Leeds bogey team this year.If Wigan can find the same passion and determination they ve shown over the last few games we are in for a cracker,and dont rule them out.
Tempted Leeds -6 but not with great confidence
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betking · Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:55 am Post subject:

Personally I'm going to go against you guys and go for Wigan +6. topnotch, I know exactly what you mean about Wigan's 2 tough games, but for me, at this stage, that could also work as a positive for Wigan. Obviously not physically, but mentally. A monumental comeback against Bradford followed by victory at Hull will have them full of confidence. On the other side, I think Leeds may be down a little emotionally. Pushing so hard again St Helens in a game they could've won, only to barely lose, will be a real disappointment. Of course, this could spur them on here, but I think overall Leeds emotional "state" is lower than Wigan's physical "state".

Of course, I've spoken several times of how I'm avoiding Wigan this year, but after passing over them against Bradford and Leeds, I'm hoping it'll be 3rd time lucky when I take them this week! Fingers Crossed

Low stakes, as anything can happen (as proven by Wigan's comeback against Bradford!), but I'm in the minority with Wigan +6.

Should be a good match whatever happens.
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topnotch · Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:22 am Post subject:

when i first posted i was very confident, however given the good feedback i am a little less confident Laughing

. i see what you are saying betking about wigan maybe having an emotional edge. and although i tip leeds, i really want wigan to win. the concern is that rugby league is a highly demanding game physically whether you are on a high or not. moreso after a long season. i even forgot to say how much wigan gave against saints BEFORE having to go both bradford and hull. to top things off, influential wigan winger mark calderwood broke his ankle at hull. so, if pat richards has to go on the right wing wigan will miss him at full back, and this could just swing it in leed's favour.

interstingly, leeds looked much fitter than even saints at knowlsely road in the prelim knockout, make no mistake saints won by the skin of their teeth. leeds looked faster and fitter all night. the way they pushed the reigning champions will give them such a lift, and given the home advantage of the great crowd normally at headingly i just can't see wigan pulling off the fairy tale however much i want them to.

in reply to andy, i had a gut feeling wigan could beat saints, bradford and hull and backed them every week accordingly (i wonder how much these three weeks have taken off my life in the long run Laughing

) however i get the feeling this is the end of the road. i agree this will be unmissable entertainment regardless. good luck everyone Win

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mathewjamie17 · Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:20 pm Post subject:

Wigan have played Leeds 3 times this season and have won all 3 games,obviously previous results count for nothing in big playoff games like this but what it does suggest is that this will be a close game.
Barret has been outstanding this season and will relish this game and will want to prove himself once more,i believe Barret has the edge over Danny Mcguire which will be key tonight.
I still think Leeds will win but it wont be by more than a few points so Wigan +8 is my pick tonight Win

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betking · Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:08 pm Post subject:

And Wigan let me down again. 36-6 Shocked

I certainly didnt expect that!!
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topnotch · Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 12:30 am Post subject:

unfortunately that is exactly what i expected to happen. i guess that is why no-one has ever won the grand final from lower than third in the table. it is a shame, as it would have been one hell of a story.

any early thoughts for the grand final? i will be reverting back to saint helens to blow leeds away to be honest. the extra week rest will be paramount. it is obvious saints ain't had their feet up while leeds were at it with wigan. the spare time will be going on preperation and training to keep sharp, paramount to the gameplan will be to take a good early lead, letting leeds chase the game. i guess the bookies will give saints around a -8 ish handicap, one i expect them to cover.

anyone any premature thoughts?
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andy1965 · Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 11:03 am Post subject:

Will stick to Saints to win Leeds played well last night without being pushed too hard,credit to Wigan they never gave up and the score line flattered Leeds in the end.I think it will be a totally different game against Saints.
Tight opening with both teams wanting to score first and i expect a tight game upto the hour mark,from then i can see Saints dominating and taking the Grand Final my prediction Saints 30 Leeds 18
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Boromir43 · 2yo Joined: 18 Aug 2007 Posts: 8

Here's my two pence worth.

Leeds will probably win on the handicap, my regular bookmaker is only goving them +4 start and I may look elsewhere for +6 but regardless I think the Rhinos will come out on top, even if they don't win the game.

Wigan were a poor bet for anyone last week, they have over-achieved this season and were lucky against both Wigan and Hull and Saints were not trying 100% on the last game of the regular season seeing as they had already guaranteed top spot. Had Leeds not lost to Hull at Headingley the previous week and had the Saints had to win at the JJB to clinch top spot then the result would have been very different.

My point is that the week off which Saints have had prior to the final may not be as big as an advantage as many believe. Leeds were in full control against Wigan who hardly tested them at all and as a result the Rhino's will not have had to expend the energy one would have expected them to in such an important game; in effect they had a light run out against a poor Wigan side which means they will be fresh, granted not as fresh as the Saints, but fresh non-the-less.

I fully expect this one to be as close as the encounter a fortnight ago and though Saints may lift the trophy, Leeds will win the handicap.