Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 2:58 pm Post subject: Super League 2009
Hello there fellow RL fans. Just thought I'd give you the low-down on how I think the SL season will pan out.
1. Leeds - too strong last time out and good solid signings
2. Catalans - A surprise pick but I feel that if they can sort out their away form they will be contenders.
3. St Helens - A more difficult year for the Saints. Some good youngsters coming through but I think they have held on to the old guard for a season too long; and Meli is the worst centre in SL.
4. Wigan - Like Noble said last season they did the best they could with what they had. Have not signed well and will not make the play-off semi.
5. Warrington - Who knows with the Wolves? Can Lee Briers probably the best half-back in the league who has not won a trophy in his career, step up? An outside bet for the Challege Cup.
6. Bradford - Signing and over-the-hill 35 year old, no matter how many tries he has scored is not forward thinking. On a downward sprial.
7. Huddersfield - Will make the play-offs and win the majority of their home games.
8. Hull FC - Lucky to beat Leeds in the CC a few years ago and not enough strength in depth
9. Harlequins - Flip a coin between them and FC for the final play-off spot. If they can improve their home record then they will sneak in the eight.
10. Wakefield - Little in the way of cash has hamstrung Kear's preparation. Expect them to turn a 'big-four' team over at home but little else.
11. Hull KR - Morgan is a good coach but does not have the players at his disposal. A disappointing season awaits.
12. Salford - Admitted into SL seemingly on the basis of the BBC's relocation of its sport department there. The Reds will be making the numbers up this season.
13. Celtic Crusaders - A difficult season awaits but if they can win a few home games against lower table teams they will probably stay off the bottom of the pile.
14. Castleford - A paper-thin squad with one class player, Westerman, who will find it hard to replicate the form of his first season.
As far as tonights game goes I think Leeds will easily cover the handicap at home agains the Crusaders who have had only five days preparation. The best I could fins was Leeds -20 with BlueSq.
Joined: 09 Mar 2008 Posts: 2221 Location: Gloucester
Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 3:36 pm Post subject:
Not really had a look through all the teams yet so can't comment on that but will be leaving the match alone tonight.
From Sky sports
Rob Burrow has failed to recover in time and joins a lengthy list of casualties for the Rhinos - Brent Webb, Danny Buderus, Ryan Bailey, Simon Worrall and Ben Jones-Bishop are all ruled out.
However, there is some good news for McClennan with Danny McGuire and Kevin Sinfield both passed fit to face the Crusaders. Good news but are they ,match fit??
Danny Allan, Kallum Watkins, Paul McShane and Dane Manning have been included in a 19-man squad for the for the game at Headingley Carnegie. Some unfamilier names there
The Crusaders head into their opener against the world champions without a warm-up match, so to describe them as an unknown quantity is an understatement.
Six of the Welsh side's new signings are set to make their debuts, including former Wests Tigers prop Ryan O'Hara, who was one of eight players who arrived in Wales on Sunday after only being issued with a work permit last week.
Seven out of those eight are named in the 19-man squad, with just Papua New Guinea international second rower Jason Chan missing out.
Celtic Crusaders squad: Duggan, Dyer, Hannay, Dalle Cort, Blackwood, Quinn, Van Dijk, O'Hara, Bryant, Peek, Mapp, Chalk, Smith, Lupton, Flower, J. James, Tangata-Toa, Beasley, Budworth.
Boromir,
You could well be right with the -20 but this being Celtic's first game some new Aussies in and the fact they are an unknown just makes this a match to leave alone till I know more about them. _________________ Always borrow money from a pessimist ..they don't expect it back
Some surprises with your selections, definitely think Catalans will be in the top 8 but not so far high up. It might take them a while for them with coach Nick Potter going to Saints.
As regards to Wigan with their poor signings as you say. Mark Riddell will prove to be a very good buy for Wigan, very good ball distributor (unlike Higham) and is also a good leader with lots of character. Amos Roberts is a proven try scorer and has alot of speed, there is alot of debate where he will play as he can play wing, fullback and at a push stand off. And with Karl Pryce there is another proven try scorer, although he will need at least half a season or longer to get back to full fitness but is still a young player with lots to offer.
Wigan will miss the influence of Trent Barrett but the forwards look very good and there's alot of pace and size in the 3 quarters. Also the likes of Joel Tomkins, McIlorum, O'Carroll, Prescott, Goulding have had another years experience in the first team and there's Sam Tomkins who is probably the biggest prospect at Wigan who will be given alot more game time this year.
Castelford to finish bottom is also a strange call, they shocked a few of the top sides last year and unlike Salford/Celtic have had a years experience of the intensity compared to the lower divisions. They also have some very good young players not only in Westerman but in Shenton, Owen, Dixon.
The surprise team for me to finish high up this year is Huddersfield, although they haven't got the Todd Carney transfer to go through they still have a very strong squad with plenty of size and pace, and in Nathan Brown have a very good coach.
Bradford have made a superb signing in Menzies IMO, ok yes he might be 35 but the Bulls have lacked that sort of experience over the last couple of years after losing the likes of Jamie Peacock, Menzies is a top class player and will prove to be a good buy for Bradford.
For tonights game itself alot of people will be thinking Leeds will walk away with it as Celtic are the new team, but they will also have something to prove and will want to keep it to a respective score for themselves. Leeds also have some of their key players missing such as Webb, Burrow and new signings Buderus and Eastwood. They should still have too much for the Celtic side but I'd stay clear of the handicap betting, and with the Manly game coming up aswell they won't want anymore players getting injured.
Boromir43 i dont know why you think Hull FC were lucky in 2005 totally matched leeds in every department that day and happens to be one of the greatest weekends in my life
Saying that Hullfc have alot to prove this year and the signing of Thorman could be very shrewd and i expect at least a playoff position this year
had a match bet with Wakefield 11/10 to finish higher that HKR pinching money
Leeds game tonight is hard but have backed Celtic +22 with the feelgood factor etc and Leeds having quite a few injuries _________________ Runner up November 2008 Racing Challenge
Winner of 2009 Six Nations Week1 Competition
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How does that compare with this season?
And Hull played better than leeds anyway
After last nights game Leeds need to play better then that to finish top
Some interesting responses. I agree I should have perhaps left the handicap alone and scraped through with the -20 handicap
As for Hull FC in the CC final, it's just an opinion but when Leeds got in front Hull's heads had gone down only for Marcus Bai to try passing the ball in his own in-goal area to giver then a sniff.
Mei handed Leeds the GF last year by dropping at least two bombs, possibly even three.
I'd also stay clear of betting on Wigan in the early season, although we have a few games that you would think would be a banker we always start off poor and usually get to form towards the end of the season. -16 start against Wakefield even for me doesn't give me too much confidence, Wakey will want something to prove with all their injuries and they started well last year, also John Kear always seems to produce surprise results against Wigan.
Posted: Mon Feb 09, 2009 3:15 pm Post subject: you were right about wigan, liam!
i'm pretty pleased that i forgot about the first game of the season and was visiting yesterday, so did not get involved on the spreads.
with research i might have had a decent bet on wigan considering the wakefield injury problems. so that was a lucky escape for me.
note to self...taking into account last season...try not to get involved in the early rounds especially when conditions are bad. try and level stake bets as there are often shocks in superleague, especially early in the season.
Well, the official first week is here this weekend and here are the handicaps from SkyBet:
Hull v Wigan, Hull -2
Leeds v Wakefield, Leeds -18
St Helens v Warrington, St Helens - 8
Catalans v Huddersfield, Catalans - 6
Salford v Celtic, Salford -6
Bradford v Hull KR, Bradford -12
Castelford v Harelquins, Castelford -4
Firstly I'm not going to touch the Hull v Wigan game, I never ever bet games involved with the team I support (Wigan). Although I would suggest that people do not look into last weeks games too much, yes Wigan played very poorly but Wigan will have had an extra week to prepare properly with a game under their belts whereas Hull don't and this will be an advantage as Noble will know what to put right, and also Wigan have a pretty good record at the KC stadium over recent years with Wigan winning 5 out of their 9 visits.
I'm going to touch on games where I think they have more of a chance with the handicap and shall give my reasons.
I haven't seen any of the other teams lineups yet apart from the St Helens v Warrington game where I know both sides have at least 1 player missing from each who would normally be in the line up.
Warrington have Martin Gleeson missing although that shouldn't be too much of a problem as Paul Johnson will do a solid job, Saints on the other hand have their winger Francis Meli out and could bring in one of their younger players into the game. I'm sure Lee Briers will have a field day kicking wise, whether Wire put the pressure into points is another matter but I feel the -8 might be abit too much for Saints and especially with it being a local derby I feel Wire will keep it closer than 8 points. Although they have only beaten Saints once in the current Super League fixtures, the gap in recent games have been closing with Saints only winning by the odd couple of points.
Catalans v Huddersfield will be an interesting game, Catalans will see how they go in the first game of the season at the very hostile Catalans ground without former coach Mick Potter, Catalans have a very quick and mobile set of forwards and although Huddersfield are tipped to be the surprise team of 2009 I feel Catalans will win this by more than 6 points on home soil as many teams struggle in the South of France.
Bradford v Hull KR, I personally think the -12 is very generous to Bradford. Hull KR have shocked quite a few of the big teams in their first couple seasons of SL and prove to be quite a tough team to over come. Ironically they played last week whereas Bradford's first game of the season got called off at Harlequins, I think Bradford will still win the game but closer than the 12 start they've been given.
They are the main matches I'd be looking at anyway.
My banker for this week is Catalans. They missed out on their friendlies due to the bad weather. But they got a big reputation at home, and they bought better than last year too. They hammered the Giants last year and i expect more of the same.
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Leeds - too strong last time out and good solid signings
Catalans - A surprise pick but I feel that if they can sort out their away form they will be contenders.
St Helens - A more difficult year for the Saints. Some good youngsters coming through but I think they have held on to the old guard for a season too long; and Meli is the worst centre in SL.
Warrington - Who knows with the Wolves? Can Lee Briers probably the best half-back in the league who has not won a trophy in his career, step up? An outside bet for the Challege Cup.
Celtic Crusaders - A difficult season awaits but if they can win a few home games against lower table teams they will probably stay off the bottom of the pile.
Castleford - A paper-thin squad with one class player, Westerman, who will find it hard to replicate the form of his first season.
