Australia v India - First Test

[richardmcfc]

1st Test starts on Boxing day and the prices I am seeing for India are crazy. Yes, Australia are a very good team especially at home, but 10/1 for an India team that has easily disposed of Pakistan recently? I think that is very generous.

India at 10/1

[thetitan]

i think india are justifiably underdogs, but i agree that the price is great value nonetheless. the problem is that even if india have a good spell of play, the market will always treat them as underdogs, so we won't see as big price movements as we would expect.

i reckon that the draw is the main value here - at anything above 3's, it will surely only come down. my logic is that both sides have formidable batting line-ups, and without warne and mcgrath, australia are slightly vulnerable in the bowling dept. india are weaker still in the pace dept, all i can see happening in each of the 4 tests is the side winning the toss batting first and racking up 450+ minimum...other team will reply with a similar score...and it will be a pretty even contest with over 3 days gone.

for trading value, the draw will be the only result which I can say will shorten with any confidence. what does everybody else reckon?

will do a write-up with series specials tips later on.
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Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[findfreelay]

Draw is value because weather is also a concern.
Would like to wait for Draw 4+ and India 20+ if Australia bat first and having good or bad start.
Good start by Australia means Draw may shorten and India drifts,bad start and Draw will definately drift.
................
Anyway my plan is:
1.Lay Australia 1.52 or below if comes on 1st day or back Australia 2.2+ whichever comes first.
2.Back Draw 4+ whoever bat first.
3.Back India 20+ whoever bat first.
4.Lay India 3.5 and below.
1 Golden rule for Test matches is never back underdogs 5.5 or below (specially when they are 10+ prematch) because underdogs/outsiders price drifts rapidly.
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[thetitan]

i think aus may dominate this match because of india's lack of preparation. they've just come straight from india and will surely take a while to adjust to aussie conditions. their pace bowlers will struggle in the first test. still, my money will be on the draw.

here are my series bets...

Ponting top Aus bat - 2pts @ 2/1

dutch Lee/Clark top Aus wicket takers - 7pts @ 1.65

top India wicket taker - 5pts Kumble @ 2.5

India to win a match in the series - 3pts @ 2.37

India on the +2.5 match series handicap - 5pts @ 1.5

1st test bets:

ganguly man of the match - 1pt @ 16/1

ganguly top indian scorer 1st innings - 1pt @ 6/1

aus to win the match and the series ends a draw - 0.5pts @ 20/1
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[welshie1]

Australia to win the 1st test @ 1.57

Australia are very strong at Home and I think its been around 14 years since they lost a Home test series. The only team to go from Australia with their heads held high were the Indians. But Australia have done well to replace Glenn McGrath and Shan Warne and that was shown in the last test they played.I ndia do have a very good batting line up, its better than the Australians in my opinion, but they do have one or two inexperienced bowlers and it will be tough for them in Australia.
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[thetitan]

Australia win the toss and bat. They should be looking for 500+ on a flattish wicket, India need to take 2-3 wickets in the first session to have a chance of winning this game.

I'm on the draw but am switching to Aus for now. India's opening bowlers will struggle a lot against Jaques and Hayden, can't see Aus more than 1 or 2 down by lunch, if any wickets have fallen at all.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

well, India drifted alarmingly as per Dip's comment...very good call there.

Price is essentially just between Aus and the Draw, about 1.53 and 3.15 respectively at lunch.

Utterly utterly pointless from a trading point of view, i cant see anything worthwhile except laying India, which is pretty pointless @ 25+.

Only managed a few ticks on both the Aus and draw prices but I'm calling it a night now and greening out, for essentially not very much profit. there's no point watching this from a betting point of view as the prices won't change much before close of play, when Aus will no doubt be 400 for not more than 4.

A few observations...

111/0 at lunch, India started very well in the first few overs, enough swing and seam to keep them interested but bowled far too wide. RP and Zaheer did OK but not threatening enough really. Ganguly as first change is not going to win you many matches, esp outside the subcontinent. Regretting playing Harbhajan ahead of Ishant Sharma already IMO.

Absolutely massive session for Aus, gives them the momentum in the match and essentially takes India out of the game.

Unless we see a situation on day 5 when India are looking to save the game, I can't really see many more opportunities for quick trades, except perhaps a very slow, prolonged draw/Aus flip-flop over the next 2-3 days. In which case I suppose i'll back my first thoughts and back the draw once Aus get 500+ and India start their innings.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

also, NZ vs Bangladesh on right now:

NZ 1.05 to Lay with Bangladesh 195/9 with a few overs left. Had to rub my eyes to believe this price.

NZ in complete disarray in the past few months, been humiliated in almost all of their recent matches. Bangladesh comfortably won the 20/20 practice match against a strong NZ side.

Have laid NZ big time with a small back @ 1.3, but more of a punt than anything.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

Quite incredibly, have woken to see Australia 9 down

Dont know how they managed that, quite phenomenal really and the mind really boggles as to how they could have managed it, really looked toothless in the first session.

Even more shocked to see India still available to back at 8! I certainly don't make Australia odds-on shots.

i was lucky to manage a few quid on India at 25/1 just as Jaques got out, as per Dip's recommendation of backing 20+ on the first day. India's price didnt move even a single tick at the fall of wicket.

Thoughts, anyone?

I think that I'll start day 2 with a big Lay of Australia - the pitch doesn't have too much in it, and I think Australia will find it very very tough to win from here.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

Instead of laying Australia, what do people think about just backing the draw?

After seeing how little the market fancies the underdogs (India yesterday, Windies today), I'm not sure how much India will move in, even if they get 400+.

thoughts and strategies appreciated as always
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[richardmcfc]

Seeing the draw at 4/1 in some places which is too good to miss IMO. India are well capable of getting 400+ and I think the draw is the most likeliest option at the the moment.

Might have a small stake on India to win aswell at 6/1

[fastal72]

Personally I'm going for Australia here. Yes they're all out for 343 but we still don't know if that's a half decent total or not yet and India to my mind will need to post 500 bare minimum to win this test and although talented, are up against the best side in the world, even without McGrath and Warne.

Both these sides can score quickly tho and I really think that this is the key - there always seems time to spare with Australia playing!! If the weather doesnt intervene I'd be surprised if one or the other doesn't force a result here.