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findfreelay
Group 3 Class
Joined: 08 Dec 2007
Posts: 82
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 Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: South Africa v West Indies-2nd Test |
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Odds are:
SA 1.51
WI 8.4
Draw 4.2
Will this test prove to be another dream match for traders?
Difficult to say because SA in revenge mood and West Indies very much unpredictable side.
Although i think West Indies bowling has improved.
So my plan is Lay SA in 1.5x if they bat first and back SA 1.7+ if WI bat first.
Small Lay of Draw prematch (weather looking fine).
All the best and tell us your strategy for this match.
Dip
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thetitan
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| Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 8:48 pm Post subject: |
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looks like Gibbs will be dropped for Neil McKenzie. Saffers top order was in woeful nick in the first test and probably quite complacent - WI's bowling was consistent but I didnt see many deliveries where i thought to myself 'that's unplayable'. It also highlighted how much SA depend on Kallis.
I think SA should win this if Kallis fires, but i'm not too sure about the pitch so will wait until the toss until posting a better prediction.
Again, I'll be dutching Kallis and Steyn to be man of the match, both were below par on the whole, but showed signs they weren't out of form.
8/13 on Kallis to outscore Smith seems more than fair, given just how poor form Smith is in.
Perhaps more appealing is 1.8 for Chanderpaul to outscore Smith.
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who dares wins
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Joined: 18 Sep 2007
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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I am on WI 13/2 to win, all i can say is the very much unpredictable West Indies, seem more predictable than SA at the moment.
But the way i see it, i would rather be on a unpredictable 8.4 , than a unpredictable 1.51 . |
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: |
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west indies win the toss and bat. for some strange reason they've dropped darren sammy (who had a good first test) and replaced him with the leg-spinner Rawl Lewis, statistically one of the worst bowlers in test history. 
Ganga is out and the odds on SA have dropped from 1.7 to 1.55 - surely worth a Lay? 
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 10:47 am Post subject: |
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WI 71/1 yet still 6.6, draw is coming in and SA are drifting slowly.
Backed WI and letting my SA Lay run.
EDIT: well, i jinxed it, morton out just as i posted. No worries, laid some more SA @ 1.63 as there seems to be a huge over-reaction to each wicket.
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findfreelay
Group 3 Class
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: |
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West Indies 83/3 at lunch.
Odds are:
SA 1.48
WI 9
Draw 4.6
Two new batsmen on the crease.One is Chanderpaul.
I am waiting for SA odds 1.3x to Lay or 1.7x to back.
Although i think SA price will stay at 1.5x for long.So may consider Lay around 1.5x (South Africa) if score will be around 120/3 after lunch.
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: |
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agreed dip, will also take the draw if it reaches 5+.
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findfreelay
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Titan,
What's the weather report for the match?
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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not sure about the match but 30% of showers this afternoon, according to commentators.
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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after a shaky end to the morning session, things are going more to plan now with SA drifting and the draw price coming in.
SA 1.9
WI 7.6
Draw 2.92
EDIT: Draw continuing to come in, think it might be odds-on by the end of the day if WI dont lose more than a couple more wickets. Already, this test has a deja vu feeling to the last one.
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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181/3, Samuels starting to play some strokes which is worrying!
Market finally beginning to take shape, the sense of deja vu here is eerie - i'm not complaining, once again the Lay of SA has paid dividends 
SA 2.42
WI 6.6
Draw 2.38
Draw may well be odds-on by tonight.
EDIT: once again, a wicket falls after i post here! draw at 2/1 has to be the call given the market's nature today.
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thetitan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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great day's trading with plenty opportunities to green out, shame i didnt take all of them!
will start off day 2 with another Lay of SA at about 1.35, can only see them trading considerably higher during the day, and they probably wont dip below 1.25 even if they have a great day.
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