South Africa v West Indies-2nd Test

[fairfranco]

doh!

I was busy on the horses all afternoon and missed those low prices on the draw. I would definately have taken a Lay of anything below 2.5 despite Windies not losing wickets quickly or having a particularly good run rate.

at the start i backed WI and layed the draw but traded out of WI early on to a small profit. I've now half traded out my draw to another small profit but will be trying to get some better swings on the action tomorrow.

A draw looks unlikely right now but then with the pitch being pretty good for batting South Africa might be in for a long time. On the other hand though the pitch is very thick and the ball isn't running well so runs and boundries are hard to pick up.

I don't think South Africa will score quickly so you may see the draw start to come in again unless West Indies can get wickets as well as they did in the last test.

[thetitan]

draw was looking unlikely in the first place, was kinda hoping for a repeat of the first test when we saw odds-on on day 1! oh well, hopefully i can trade that out tomorrow. should be an interesting day, should be plenty more trading opportunities

need to check out weather forecasts some more, it always seems to look murky in cape town!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

windies bowled out for 243. SA odds have dropped to 1.25 from 1.38?!

surely have to be laid at these prices.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

bloody hell, it's taken me half an hour to get to this reply page to post on here. the site really seems to be struggling!

anyway...I would Lay SA for a bit and back the draw, the price hit 8 before which was well worth taking, I don't see SA batting fast, I reckon about 2.5 will be the run rate once they settle down. This will see the draw price come down.

Though unless there are wickets it will also see the WI price go out and the SA price hold firm.

the Windies could really have done with at least anohter 50 runs this morning to put them in a slightly better position

[thetitan]

hi FF, do agree the draw is worth backing at 8+, i just missed out on it. i'm basically in a pointless position, big on the draw and small on WI. You guessed it, red on the favourite!

Edwards is out with a hamstring injury so he'll be missed...but apparently Steyn is also injured, and SA would certainly struggle a helluva lot if he wasnt able to bowl in the second innings. WI have some vaguely OK back-up bowling in Bravo but I dont fancy SA without Steyn.

Draw is at 8 now, having a slight nibble.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

i'm same position as you titan. backed Windies day 1 and traded out leaving a small profit, layed draw then backed again, now i'm all over the draw.

SA are a wicket down now but they it's McKenzie rather than Smith and they still have plenty of batters to come. I think West Indies will struggle to get them out quickly.

I've layed 400 which i'm not too sure about now, odds are slightly higher now since the wicket, I don't see them hitting 400 till well into tomorrow anyway so there's plenty of time to see them off it.

I fancy SA to make 330-360 (you heard it here first!)

[thetitan]

i though 400+ was a fair Lay when it was 1.99, looks to have traded as low as 1.6

without edwards, i do reckon it's a 50/50 shot, although at the same time, I think that 400 on this pitch would be the equivalent of 500+ on any other pitch. Might have a small Lay of that if it gets very low again.

Let's hope for a very slow session with lot's of interruptions!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

hmmmm i hate interuptions, even when i'm backing the draw!

I guess it would be acceptable in the afternoon when i'm on the horses anyhow!

I don't see them bowling South Africa out before tomorrow lunch at the earliest though I think more like tomorrow tea time.

that would leave a fair bit of time for a result unless West Indies can get a much better second innings score.

[fairfranco]

well it's not slow moving as SA have knocked out a few runs but lost 2 important wickets in Amla and Kallis. a nice trade if you back West Indies at 14's as they are now down to 6's!

annoyingly i set a trade out for 10 as i didn't anticipate the fall in price to take it back to single figures with 1 wicket.

[thetitan]

kallis and amla out in quick succession, was always coming with kallis playing a bit too aggressively by his standards, all of amla's runs were edges through gully!

backing SA for a quick trade but I think that WI's chances of winning have sky-rocketed here. Will switch to WI at slightly better odds, 5-10 over partnership here and they may reach 8+ again.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

not sure how exactly, but i'm making a right pig's ear of this test. i think i'll wipe it all out and start from scratch, been making every wrong move possible!

West Indies are obviously the value here at 4+, will try and hold out for a bit more though.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[candyman]

South Africa over 340.5 runs 5/6@Coral.

Anybody think this is a decent call. I haven't watched any of second test but the current partnership seems pretty steady.

Only 123 runs needed for the last 5 wickets.