South Africa vs West Indies - 3rd Test @ Durban

[thetitan]

1-1 in the series, SA desperate for a series victory here while WI would be overjoyed with a draw I suspect.

Crucial point to keep in mind from cricinfo:

Kingsmead's easterly location - but within the same timezone as the rest of South Africa - means it is prone to bad light and the humid climate can result in powerful thunderstorms.

So it's likely that we'll only see a max of about 85 overs in the day, probably less. Might be worth keeping the draw on your side.

Steyn is rated as only 70% fit, Gayle is definitely out for WI. Edwards will also probably be left out due to a grade 2 hammy

SA have an OK record here, won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 out of the last 10 matches. Last time WI played at this ground, they were caned by an innings

Will be interesting to see how the pitch plays, from what I've seen in the past few years, it's pretty much been a seamer's Paradise Poker but the groundsman says this will start out slow and low. Could well be a good toss to lose.

Will look to back SA @ 1.9+, Draw @ 6+

Any ideas, fellas?
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[fairfranco]

from what the commentators were saying in the last test they believed this pitch would be good for the South African bouncers who were giving West Indies all their problems in the last test.

I think the West Indies over performed in the first test and they will struggle to get a result in this one.

Weather maybe their best hope of a result.

From a trading point of view though there could be value in laying SA to start. West Indies have certainly improved their bowling for this series and South Africa haven't been able to score big scores or score as freely as they would have hoped.

The draw could be worth backing straight away if the weather does as you predict. the current weather forecast seems to be pretty sunny with the odd bit of cloud until day 4 (Sunday) when thunderstorms are forecast. Monday looks a bit more severe and the thunderstorms will continue as well as lots of rain. could be worth getting on the draw unless the game doesn't progress very quickly early on.

[fairfranco]

what a start for South Africa.

after less than an hours play West Indies are 22 for 3 and struggling to pick up runs.

Chanderpaul in next so maybe he can a decent partnership in. Poor guy's has the expectations of the Caribbean on every time he walks out unfortunately he's not the kind of player that picks up the runs in tests to make that difference without someone to help him along.

outstanding catch for that third wicket by the way!

worth a back of the draw at 8/1 now, if West Indies can just hold it together for a couple of hours that price will drop a lot and as said in the previous post interuptions are expected on day 4 and especially day 5.

[Dammo Qwirky]

can see the sort of day with saffers about 4 or 5 down at the end of the day here, if the windies stick it in the right place.
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[fairfranco]

oh dear. no sooner did i say "West Indies can just hold it together for a couple of hours " than they los their next wicket then they lost another.

47/5 and Chanderpaul out of the equation as well. The South Africans are making short work of this and they're going to struggle to make 200 at the moment with not a lot left after Bravo.

40 minutes till lunch and it's vital that West Indies don't give away any more wickets before then!

Dammo a bit confused by your statement, Saffers 4 or 5 down? are you refering to them getting into bat and being that many down, i'm confused!?

[fairfranco]

lol....Bravo last good player did I say....OUT!

forget 200, 100 could be a struggle here. had a little Lay of South Africa at 1.1, still so much time and another innings to come it seems low enough to take a small Lay even if they are hammering Windies righ tnow.

1.3 for WI to make 100 at the moment, odds against for 125.

[Dammo Qwirky]

yeah - in other words 14 or 15 wickets to fall today. so summat like saffers 100-4
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[thetitan]

quite remarkable stuff, not a good day to have a lie-in! or maybe a blessing in disguise for those people considering laying SA

can anybody see any trading opportunities? I suppose that a Lay of SA @ 1.1 is a partial free Lay...they surely can't trade much lower that for the rest of the test matches?
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Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

that would certainly make things interesting. A decent effort from Taylor and Sammy to get the Windies to lunch.

I've backed 125+ and 3.0 so feeling confident at the moment having traded out at 1.5.

They seemed to be going for quick runs so I think they will continue with that after lunch and try to rack the runs up quick before losing their wickets.

i don't see them getting much past 150 but it's down to this pairing to score whatever they're going to get.

[thetitan]

139 all out, still a bit of juice in it but I don't think it's a 139 pitch.

Would be nice if WI could get a wicket or two now but trading on the match odds would seem a pointless exercise unless they shoot out SA for less than 250-odd.

Small punt on WI I guess, SA openers not too flash. Speculative value, just need line and length, nothing special here. Just need to do what Pollock did.
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

what a day for South Africa, get West Indies all out for 139 then finish day 1 on 213/1 themseveles.

Gibbs the only player out with Smith getting to 122 from 133 balls, Amla proving a good partner with 55 off of 103.

The game is there for the taking and it would take something huge (like a 4 day bout of thunderstorms) from the West Indies to turn this around with some kind of miraculous bowling tomorrow followed by the second innings of their lives.

at very minimum SA will get 400 giving them a 250+ lead and they should be able to do that by the end of tomorrow. I'd expect them to declare at the end of tomorrow leaving 3 days for West Indies to try to stay in and score the runs.

As i've predicted bad weather on the final 2 days SA will hope they can win by an innings and I wouldn't be suprised if they did, it'll really take some sensible batting in the second innings if they are to salvage anything.

[thetitan]

amazing parallels with england's match against saffers in durban a couple of years ago.

england bowled out for 139 on the first morning (exact same score as WI today )

pollock took a 4-fer

then, SA all out for 300-odd, England rack up 500+ in their 2nd innings, SA play out a tight draw, 8 down on the last day.

Might look to back the draw for a punt, on the odd chance that WI can make it to Sunday, which is when bad weather is forecast. 'Light thunderstorms' forecast for Sunday, 'heavy thunderstorms' on Monday. Just worth keeping in mind, although highly unlikely we'll see any play on Sunday at this rate anyway!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.