Australia vs India - 3rd Test @ Perth

[thetitan]

Well, the adrenalin will be flowing on both sides...the controversy will only serve to motivate India.

Team news is that Chris Rogers will play instead of the injured Matthew Hayden, and Shaun Tait will come in for Brad Hogg. Sehwag is in for Yuvraj and Pathan might come in for Harbhajan.

Pre-match prices...

Aus - 1.39

India - 10

Draw - 5.3

Can't really understand why India are significantly shorter than they have been for the last two tests. It's well known that this is probably their worst chance of winning a test this series. Draw is a bit high even with history against it, so it might be a good call for trading purposes.

Another interesting point is that on day 1, morning session of the last two tests, the draw odds have been played around with a lot, and so it may be worth keeping this in mind.

I reckon that if Australia bat first, they are worth a Lay as I can't see them getting any shorter.

I may watch the first session together with the tennis, I would love to see Sehwag bat after his knock in the warm-up game.

Also important to note that although Australia are on the cusp of history with 17 consecutive wins, this is the first time in 16 years they're playing a test without a frontline spinner. Johnson and Tait are inexperienced and I think the Indian batsmen will take advantage if they are remotely wayward.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[welshie1]

Again I am with Australia

There has been a well publicised fall out between both camps, but the two captains have now shaken hands are we are expected to have a great test match. I think the Aussies will be completley focused on this match while India might still be a little bit incensed as if the Umpire would not have put Ganguly out they would have a chance of a 1-1 series going in to this one. But how it is they can only make it 2-1 but I dont see it happening as the Aussies just have a winning mentality. Chris Rogers comes in to the line up and I think he might have a big test as he is a very talented batsman. The WACA wicket favours pace and both sides have gone with quick bowling attacks, I think the Aussies have the better one. Australia havent lost a Test at the WACA in ten years and been ferocious enough to win eight off their last ten on this ground (the other two ended in draws). Aussie win.

[fairfranco]

decent start from Australia taking 4 Indian wickets for 214. Dravid going well on 80 at the moment though and Dhoni still to come.

Odds say India are doing well with Australia now out to 2.24, India down to 5.2 and the draw at 2.58.

at those odds I fancy backing Australia as i'm confident they will go odds on again before the end of the match and fancy them to win anyway.

Draw would have probably been the thing to back pre match as both teams have been scoring highly in previous matched so the draw price has come in quite a bit each time. a bit late now and there's not really any value in it right now I don't think.

as with the last test I fancy Jacques to score 50 but haven't seen any decent odds for him yet.

[fairfranco]

i was expecting the days cricket to be over when I woke up but was pleased to see it was still going. It couldn't have gone better for me!

Backed 2.24, layed 1.83...backed 1.95....layed 1.65.

A poor shot from Dravid while chasing the 100 was a major wicket, then Laxman fell a few overs later with the new ball. With 8 overs to go India must try not to lose any more now.

[thetitan]

Surprised to see Australia's odds at 1.69, they were about 1.73 when India had a 50 run opening partnership and they're in a considerably stronger position now.

Australia represent pretty decent value to me at the moment.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

well that wasn't what i wanted to see when I got up today!

Australia were 193 for 7 when I switched the telly on...OUCH!

An unusually bad opening from Rogers and jacques, Ponting only scored 20 and Hussey out for 0. It was only Symonds and Gilchrist that put anything together.

Final score 212

India now have potentially 20 overs to bat again today (cricinfo are predicting no more than 12).

I'm all on Australia at the moment and so i'm desperately hoping to see some wickets this before close of play (5 would do nicely!).

India are certainly in the driving seat with a 130 run lead and 3 days still to play.

The pitch isn't expected to be as good for the batsman in the final two days so Australia will have to do really well to chase down whatever India set them.

[Betfairalfie]

Just backed the Aussies @2.76. Let the revival begin

[fairfranco]

well 1 wicket should give you a decent trade alfie! I they were up to 3.2 before the first wicket and the price fell right down to 2.4.

Australia are going to have to skittle India for a very low total if they are to come back in this test though.

end of day 2:

India 52/1

Sehwag on 29
Pathan on 2

India lead by 170 runs

[richardmcfc]

Very interesting. Come on India, Ive had a fiver on at 9/1

[thetitan]

i'm only on at tiny stakes as i didn't want to get too involved in this game.

India effectively 170/1 in the 2nd innings, draw is out of the equation and possibly still too low with no threat of bad weather. If Australia were in this position, I suspect they would be 1.2, and I probably wouldn't rule them out even though they're well behind right now.

But I think that the value in Aus is pretty poor at 2.84. I reckon we may well see the same market bias that we saw in SA vs WI first test, when I'm sure a few people made small fortunes with WI defending a very high total.

I fancy Australia to bounce back and maybe restrict India to a lead of 375 max, which will make for an intriguing chase. If Australia keep the India's lead to anything under 400, I reckon that the prices won't have changed too much, at which point history will definitely favour India and I suspect that we may get a fantastic value punt on them.

At the moment, I'm holding fire until Australia chase, but I do think that there is an element of a free Lay in laying India now.

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Aus 2.84

India 1.7

Draw 16
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_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

well what an interestingly poised game.

India all out for 294 leaving Australia requiring a record chase of 413.

Couldn't have really been much better or worse than that for Australia I don't think though a decent spell from Singh at the end helped them bring it over 400 which could make a difference come the end.

Australia haven't made a great start with Rogers falling for 15 and Jacques for 16. Australia close 65/2 with Ponting and Hussey in.

Could be a very interesting day tomorrow, if the two in at the moment who are both top class batsman can put together a good partnership then the game could turn around. At the moment i'd say the 1.44 available for India is pretty good price but with the quality left to come in the Australian side you just don't know.

you only need to look at these averages to see the potential:

SR Clark 12.45
MJ Clarke 43.92
AC Gilchrist 48.18
MEK Hussey 81.53
PA Jaques 53.27
MG Johnson 49.00
B Lee 21.50
RT Ponting 58.13
CJL Rogers 9.50
A Symonds 43.00
SW Tait 8.00

If each player hit their average then they would make enough runs. obviously easier said than done and Jacques has already fallen 38 runs short of his!

current prices

Australia 3.3
India 1.44
Draw 110

No bad weather expected, 2 days to play though by tomorrow the game should be over if not very very close, average so far of 300 runs per day over the 3 days.

If only this was on in times I was awake in as the bits of the tests i've seen has produced some some outstandin cricket, brilliant atmosphere and a lot of passion from both teams.

[thetitan]

well, i'm pretty glad i left it alone for day 3 as the enhanced value i was on about before is now firmly with india.

chasing 413, and 2 wickets down. would be the 2nd biggest run chase, in test history. The pitch is cracking up and kumble is getting loads of turn.

I agree that Australia are phenomenally talented, but even so, the value is firmly with India and I'll be looking to snap up anything above 1.6.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.