Australia vs India - 4th Test @ Adelaide

[thetitan]

Australia lead the series 2-1, here are the current odds:

Aus @ 1.94

India @ 9

Draw @ 2.62

Came up with a long list of reasons as to why I'm opposing Aus, but then I somehow got logged out and the post disappeared!

Anyway, Aus always seem to take their foot off the gas in dead rubbers (they have already retained the trophy) and strange things seem to happen as a result - notably with WI chasing 418 in 2003, and India recently winning the last ODI in the bilateral series, coming back from 100/7 to chase down about 200.

As I'm a man for history repeating itself...last time India broke Australia's world record winning streak was in 2001, when they eventually won 2-1 after losing the first test.

I am quite confident that Australia won't win this match, and I will definitely be topping up on India at any silly odds, as this is the time to take advantage. Due to weather concerns, the draw is priced quite low and so I think it's important to keep a fair amount of green on this. The first innings scores at Adelaide in recent years have consistently been 350+, but I reckon that a par score here would be about 425+

Keep an eye out for fluctuations in the draw in the first session, as the odds have been changing dramatically in the first session of each test so far.
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[Dammo Qwirky]

Its not really a dead rubber as such, cant see australia treating it as so, there is still the difference between winning and drawing (ie not winning!) the series. Would suspect a drawn series will feel like a loss to aussies, more so after being 2-0 up. They seemed a bit light in last match. Wait and see for me.
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[thetitan]

good point, didn't mean a dead rubber per se, it's certainly still a 'live' match for both sides, just on past experience watching Aussies in these situations, I don't think they'll win this. Obviously will have to see pitch conditions etc but I expect it to be a road.

At the same time, don't want to get egg on my face laying Aus at 1.9+, will certainly look for a lower price.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[welshie1]

For the 4th time in the series I have gone for the Aussies. I just think they will be desperate to win this series now they know they have got a game on their hands, I think Ricky Ponting will relish the challenge and he will pass that motivation on to his team mates. There is talk India could tinker by bringing in Harbijhan Singh for a batsman I think this would be a bad move as Adelaide is a batting pitch and the Aussies will relish batting on it.

[penypicker]

I think the aussies will be after revenge personally

[thetitan]

india win toss and bat, laying aus as a starting position. india starting off with a nice aggressive teamsheet, sehwag and pathan opening, also harbhajan is in the team again.

a bit annoyed as i thought this started at 1:30am, missed out the market moves!

EDIT: have also taken 300 or more, think it's a cert.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

89/2 at the end of the first session, Aus bowled OK but not many threatening deliveries, swing has all but disappeared and this afternoon should produce plenty of runs for India. Sehwag looking good and Tendulkar has just joined him. Aus Lay looking good, at one point they reached 3's although India's lowest price was about 5.6.

Aus 2.5

India 6

Draw 2.2

The draw crashed to 1.9 at one point before Dravid got out to an OK delivery from Johnson. India got off to a great start, about 33/0 off 5 overs, before Pathan got out to a useful ball from Johnson.

Market isnt favouring Aus as much as in previous matches, and so an Aus/India flip-flop may well happen by day 2 morning session.

A pretty even session overall, good luck
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

India finish the day on 309/5, pretty even but I suppose that the key is that Tendulkar is still in. Dhoni hasn't been too impressive in this series so far but if he can hang around, they should be looking for at least 420 odd.
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

Huge drop from Hayden a few overs before the end that could have taken Dhoni out.

Australia have a new ball though which has only seen a couple of overs, if they can take Tendulkar early on then they could well take a few more wickets. Anything less than 450 probably be good for India at the moment.

There is some rain anticipated for Saturday which could cause a bit of a stopage but nothing else that I can see.

Australia need a draw at minimum to win the series and so may look to bat for as long as possible in the first innings to ensure they can minimise chances of a loss.

Close game right now that could turn very quickly with 1 or 2 wickets.

Wish I hadn't backed Australia at 1.95 though!!!

[Dioufy]

I haven't really bothered with this test to be honest, but having just looked at the markets, I really fancy Sachin Tendulkar to get 150 or more runs - it's 8/13 with a few bookies. I pick that bet because Australia have a newish ball and the emphasis will be on getting MS Dhoni out, so they'll be willing to give Tendulkar easy singles to get him off strike so that they can have a pop at Dhoni - they'll actually try to bowl batsman out around Sachin, so I can't see him not getting 150+ or not being the last man in at the end (or at least competitive batsmen), baring he doesn't go for big ones when the tail-enders get in.

[thetitan]

i dont think they'll allow him singles but I do get the feeling that he's set for a huge one, so 8/13 for 26 more runs seems reasonable. Last time, in the 4th test of a series against Aus, I think it was at Sydney...where he got...well, I don't want to jinx it, but he did OK!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[Dioufy]

Yeah, but I think they'll rather face Dhoni than Tendulkar, especially with the new ball, so they won't mind him nicking a few singles and, of course, he'll put the bad balls away.