Austraia v India T20

[fairfranco]

Well i'm sure Titan will be interested as i've already seen him talking about the game on Betfair forum!

After some close matches in both ODI and Test matches they move on to the 20/20 format.

Both teams are capable of knocking the ball around the park and of course India won the first 20/20 World Cup this year after Australia had been heavy favourites before the tournament started.

I'm not sure of the exact line up for the games but from what i've read India will have a very different line up compared to the one that has played the previous games in this series.


Titan can you fill in the squad info?

Reason I really wanted to get this thread up was to point out the value in laying Australia at 1.43 here.

It was fairly well proven during the 20/20 world cup that if you layed both teams at 1.45 you had a very very good chance of winning. Austrlia start this game against the World Champions already below that price.

I probably won't be awake for the game and so am laying at that price and entering a Keep bet backing Australia at around evens whiich I think they will hit at some point in the game.

[thetitan]

FF - it's on at 8:30am on Friday, SS1 - come on fella, set the alarm!

Here are the squads from cricinfo:

==============
Australia squad: Michael Clarke, Adam Gilchrist (wk), Ricky Ponting (capt), Brad Hodge, Andrew Symonds, Michael Hussey, David Hussey, Adam Voges, James Hopes, Brett Lee, Ashley Noffke, Nathan Bracken, Ben Hilfenhaus.

India Squad: Mahendra Singh Dhoni (capt & wk), Sachin Tendulkar, Yuvraj Singh, Virender Sehwag, Dinesh Karthik, Robin Uthappa, Gautam Gambhir, Suresh Raina, Rohit Sharma, Irfan Pathan, Praveen Kumar, RP Singh, Ishant Sharma, Sreesanth, Harbhajan Singh, Piyush Chawla

==============

So, Hayden, Hogg, Clark and Johnson are the players dropped from the Aus team. David Hussey comes in alongside his brother, and he is an awesome player, potential to forge a world-class ODI partnership in the middle order.

India have lost Dravid, Laxman, Kumble, Ganguly, and Tendulkar won't be playing in this twenty20 (would be surprised if he isn't rested).

I would agree in theory that Australia are a good Lay, they certainly should trade higher and I wouldn't be surprised to see them drift a few ticks before KO. However, these SP's just show how much the market loves Australia, even though India have a 2-0 record against them in Twenty20's and are the world champions in this format.

Also agree that the general concept of laying both teams at 1.4ish is a good long-term strategy.

However, I think Australia will trade lower than this, we can rest assured that if they get off to an OK start, the price will hit 1.3 pretty quickly, if not lower. I don't fancy the Indian opening bowlers in this format, Sreesanth will probably struggle although he might pick up the odd wicket. Ishant Sharma will hopefully get a game after some world-class performances in the tests...but I think he'll struggle to adjust to this form of the game.

Important to remember that in the first test at Melbourne, India were seriously undercooked, and I think that this is a similar situation.

I'd expect Australia to win this but there's no way you can write off a team in this format, let alone one with Dhoni, Yuvraj and an in-form Sehwag.

Will be 90,000 in the stadium, should be an electric atmosphere, hopefully plenty of flip-flops!

Will try to remember the stuff we picked up during the WC and the ICL tournament...I did pretty well trading on a player performance basis, backing teams according to when their strongest players were in.

So I'll probably look to back India during the middle overs when Pathan and Harbhajan are bowling, I think it's fair to rely on them to keep it tight as they have great economy rates in this form of the game. Also will back both teams when batting towards the end of the innings.

Twenty20 really should be a golden goose for traders, this year we have 59 matches in the Indian Premier League in April, by then hopefully we'll have plenty of ideas for winnings strategies. Book some time off in April!

Thoughts and strategies welcome
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[findfreelay]

Fairfranko and Titan thanks for great preview.Busy with live trading room but always love to visit here.
My contribution prematch is 'predict target odds' at innings break.
(A)If Australia bat first:
230 1.1x
210 1.2x
190 1.3x
170 1.4x
150 1.5x
130 1.8X
(B)If India bat first
230 2.6x
210 evens
190 1.7x
170 1.6x
150 1.1x
130 1.0X
(all are predicted Australian odds at innings break).
It clearly shows Lay Aussies whoever bat first 1.2 and below or back 1.6+ (whichever comes first basis)
Correction most welcome .
Gl
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Like inplay cricket trading and my site is http://tradeoncricket.com

[fairfranco]

titan I didn't realise what time it was on, I will be up then as i'm normally watching the cricket over breakfast before work at that time!

normally my 5 minute trip to work see's quite a bit of action before I get in and flick my monitor on!

i've got my Lay on and hope i will be able to trade it out at a decent price.

[thetitan]

dip - your estimations for australia chasing between 150 and 170 are very interesting, worth keeping in mind the huge price jumps.

also, if aus are evens to chase 210, it will probably be a max Lay, I would assume the price would be closer to 6+ but we shall see, will be a great game if either side gets 200+

also i havent dabbled in innings runs in this format yet, but in ODI's i've noticed a lot of high prices coming in, in this form of the game, I'll be having a cheeky few quid on anything 20+ which isnt impossible to achieve
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[findfreelay]

Titan these prices are wrong i know.But it will happen because of the market love with Australia specially playing at home.
Like in the first match of the Twenty20 world cup West Indies scored 200+ in 1st innings and odds was around evens! at innings break,infact South Africa won that match.
Recently
Australia chasing 410+ in 3rd Test>India odds was 1.8+
South Africa chasing 380+ in 1st Test>odds was evens!!
So market always think that if underdogs can score good then pitch is easy and prematch favourite strong team can also score .
Dip
Edit:
Hayden and Ponting both not playing and no news on Tendulkar so far.Australia odds drifted to 1.51
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[fairfranco]

no yuvraj for India though which is a major miss.

India batting first.

[thetitan]

interesting that the odds drifted on Aus, I thought it was pretty obvious that Tendulkar would never play

That was obviously a huge factor because now Aus are at 1.38!

india win toss and bat, will start off with an aus Lay.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

live chat with Gilchrist while he's playing! Love it!

[thetitan]

OK run out there from Clarke
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

hmmm no Yuvraj today, didn't realise that...Indian batting looks a bit short on quality today
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

well, all of the build-up and hype, and aus look like they are going to win this comfortably even this early....36/5....hopefully India can just bat out the overs and give us a decent game.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.