Sports Personality of the Year 2007

[betking]

Its about 2 and a half months away, so I figured its time for some early speculation about potential winners. After last year's disgraceful decision to make Zara Philips the winner, I'm hoping this year it will go to someone who actually deserves it.

Current odds to win are -

Lewis Hamilton@ 1/18
Ricky Hatton @ 15/2
Frankie Dettori @ 33/1
Joe Calzaghe @ 33/1
Johnny Wilkinson @ 40/1
Christine Ohuruogu @ 50/1
David Beckham @ 66/1
Monty Panesar @ 100/1

Odds without Hamilton -

Ricky Hatton @ evens
Frankie Dettori @ 10/3
Joe Calzaghe @ 5/1
Johnny Wilkinson @ 11/1
Christine Ohuruogu @ 16/1
Kevin Pietersen @ 22/1
Andrew Murray @ 22/1
Amir Khan @ 25/1

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As always, a lot of the result is down to who the BBC promotes, which is always worth noting, especially after last year.

My thoughts on the potential winners, starting with the no-hopers...

Monty Panesar - The only cricket player to win this in the last 25 years is Freddie Flintoff, and thats because England won the Ashes that year (2005). With England doing nothing this year, Monty playing well isnt going to win him this.

David Beckham - The 2001 winner returned from injury to spur Real Madrid to the La Liga title, but has spent most of the time since injured. Was out of the public eye (of sorts) for most of the year, and only really got big publicity when signing for MLS side LA Galaxy in a $250,000 a week deal, and of course, an England recall. Has no chance of winning in my eyes.

Christine Ohurugu - Banned for missing THREE drugs tests. Yes she made a successful return to athletics, but she has the label of "drugs cheat". Even an Olympic Gold wouldnt be enough for her to win this.

Johnny Wilkinson - If this was given to the guy who gets injured the most, then Wilkinson would pip Michael Owen to the title. He won this in 2003 for kicking England to the rugby World Cup, if he does it again this year, then he has a chance - the British public always votes patriotically in these things - but if he doesnt, he has no chance.


And now onto the short list....


Joe Calzaghe - On the short list last year, didnt make the top 3. Since then hes only had the one fight, blowing away Peter Manfredo Jr in 3 rounds back in April. He has a fight before the Sports Personality awards, in November, a unification match for 4 super middleweight titles. If he wins this fight, then he has to be in with a chance for the top 3. However if he falls short, then so do his chances here.

Frankie Dettori - Everyone's favourite jockey. Finally got the win he craved in the Derby this year, and also has won the French Derby, QE2 stakes, Queen Anne stakes, and more. The most popular jockey in the world has a very real chance of winning here. Hes much loved, and has no negative points that I can think of.

Ricky Hatton - Like Calzaghe, made the shortlist last year, but failed to make the top 3. Since then hes had a laboured win over Juan Urango, followed by a fantastic win over Jose Luis Castillo. He has a mojor fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr, which if he wins, he'll have a huge chance of winning the Sports Personality title - the problem is, his fight is only 1 or 2 days before the awards show, so there likely will not be enough time for a mass onslaught of votes for him - this is, of course, assuming he wins. For these reasons, I think hes best avoided, as his chance of winning are low.

Lewis Hamilton - 12 points clear in the World title picture with 2 races to go. His destiny is in his hands, to become the first ever rookie F1 World Champion. When Damon Hill finally won the title in 1996, he also won this award. Lewis has had a LOT of press, and is the most successful English sportsman this year by a long margin. A justified favourite, but at horrible odds.

So what to do? I think Hamilton will take it, and if he wins the World Championship bookies will no longer be taking bets. However his odds are so poor that he can't be taken. Frankie Dettori is my pick in the "Without Hamilton" market.

Without Hamilton - Frankie Dettori @ 10/3
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Red Bull gives you wings.

Stoke and Hull better stock up on Red Bull then, as its the only way they'll get off the floor next season.....

[thetitan]

Agree totally with this, nice write-up

Only doubt surrounding Hamilton if there's an expose on him and he gets caught in bed with Alonso's wife or implicated in the splying scandal!
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[brewster39]

Excellent write up betking, Lewis Hamilton is a justified favorite, but you are right those odds are laughable, 1/18!?!? Wouldn't dabble in that market, but w/o Hamilton looks quite interesting
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PLAY UP POMPEY

[Antony OLBG]

Looking a bit more interesting now

Hamilton just may not win the title
England RWC team still in it with Wilkinson scoring all the points against Aus

Still think Hamilton will win Sports Personality but if England win the RWC and he doesnt win the Drivers Champ then it could be close.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. The operative words are 'could be'. We know what happened last year and the BBC are weirdos (a member of royalty, a emotional golfer and a gymnast who did a demonstration on the night of what she did to win her gold medal).

Frankie's chances have diminished ever so slightly because of his failure today in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe but he should still be the BBC's choice to come second.

[rounder]

who decides who wins these awards? is it a panel or a public vote?

[stereoman]

A panel chooses the shortlist of ten and it's now 'on the night' voting.

[betking]

stereoman,

I'm not sure which way to take your post, its difficult sometimes just reading, but Beth Tweddle certainly deserved her place in the top 3 last year.
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Red Bull gives you wings.

Stoke and Hull better stock up on Red Bull then, as its the only way they'll get off the floor next season.....

[Inatimate1]

Well, with a game against France comming up, and a literally "match-winning" performance against the Aussies, I've just taken up a bet on Johnny Wilkinson @ 3/1 to be in the top 3 on Betfair, especially as a lot of pundits are saying it is more of an achievement than beating them 4 years ago, must be surely worth a punt imho, best of the rest if you ask me, I normally see this as going to people from the team sport's type of perspective, when you think that The Power has never won it, and it's mainly gone down to someone who has achieved something in a major event over the past few years, Hamilton I cannot see losing this as it seems that a British Championship Winner in F1 goes on to inevitably win the title, but as for a team to win, England's RWC side will be the ones to get this as I cannot see the cricketers or a domestic Football side picking up the award...
But should England now surprise France, then odds on Johnny will fall, as I think will the odds on Hatton if he gets beat in December against Mayweather, and then there's Frankie who I don't think many people will support when you consider that a Jockey has never won this award. Johnny looks best bet of the rest for me 7.2 without Hamilton, yes please
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Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition

[rounder]

If the Scottish National Football team dont win the team of the year then there is no credability to any of the awards that are given out. It will just be another polling program to take our money off us. (getting my rant in early so i can say it again when they dont)

[betking]

rounder,

It hasnt had much credibilty in the last few years anyway, and it lost the last few shreds when Zara Philips won last year....

But team of the year will probably be England's rugby team due to recent events

[stereoman]

Depends on your point of view but I'd have voted for Joe Calzaghe ahead of Beth Tweddle.

I thought just being on the shortlist was enough for her but I suppose on retrospect, gymnastics on the whole gets NO recognition in these kind of things so good for her (she was the first British gymnast to be even shortlisted for SPotY).

If you want to know what I meant by what I typed, I meant that she did some gymnastics in the NEC and those voting on the night probably latched onto her as a result.

I didn't mean to insinuate that she performed some sexual act or something (it came across as maybe a bit snidey but you'd have to be go some to suggest I was meaning anything like that!).

I still can't get over Zara Phillips winning last year's SPotY.