Politics and Election Specials

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

Decided to open the thred as we dont have one - we can dip in and out of this one over the next year.

Had alook at some of the politics specials on Oddschecker.com and there are some very tempting investments. Only those in bold are my recommended bets, others are for consideration.

Recommened Bet 1:
5* Gordon Brown Specials: Gordon Brown NOT to resign as Prime Minister before 01/07/2009 1/2 odds on at Ladbrookes - fill up that wheelbarrow again! (he will either resign next week - very, very unlikely [as he will have the supprt of the trade unions for sure next week] or survive until 01.07.2009 - bet won). It looks a very evry god bet.

You may want to also consider this at an amazing price (if I have read it right):
Gordon Brown no longer PM After June 2010 12/1 Paddy Power (amazing price if the election is in April/May/Jume 2010 and Labour lose - GB will not then be PM on or after 01.07.2010)

Euro elections
Recommended Bet 2:
3 * Ireland Dublin To Win Seat - Joe Higgins 9/10 with Betfair a very good chance of winning the third Euro seat in Dublin under PR. Mary Lou McDonald is the only other possibiliy for the third seat). I have seen unofficial figures to suggest Joe Higgins may win this seat.

Thats all for now will look at this again soon.

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

The homework to back up the possible Dublin Euro bet (results 10pm Sunday across Europe):

"The latest tallies show the Socialist Party’s Joe Higgins, Sinn Féin’s Mary-Lou McDonald and Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan facing a tight battle for the third seat in the Dublin European constituency.

A tally from RTE shows Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell on 23.3 per cent of the votes and Labour’s Prionsias De Rossa on 20.9 per cent.

Mr Higgins was on 13.45 per cent, slightly ahead of outgoing MEPS Mr Ryan (13.25 per cent) and Ms McDonald (13.1 per cent)."

And another report:

"While in Dublin it is likely to be a three-horse race for the final seat between Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, Fianna Fáil's Eoin Ryan and Socialist Joe Higgins.

Sitting MEPs Gay Mitchell (FG) and Proinseas de Rossa (Lab) are topping the poll."

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 6730

i realise u r prob joking but u really should remove that wheelbarrow comment, its very irresponsible to the thousands of less clued up punters on here who dont know u r joking.

u have read brown market wrong. its when he ceases to be pm. ie for that to win he has to win next election and there would need to be about 650 odd assassinations for that to happen! brown doesnt seem to be the sort to resign and had ploughed billions into saving face, lumbering the country with decades of debt
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Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

Dammo Qwirky

"u have read brown market wrong. its when he ceases to be pm. ie for that to win he has to win next election"

Thank for pointing this out: I have got it wrong as the price was too good was it not, in which case we can ignore it as an investment (he cant win the next election).

I take your point about filling up wheelbarrows and will now not use that term. Anyone reading this must make up their own mind and never ever invest what they cant afford to lose.

The OLBG betting school offers good advice about all this ofcourse.

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 6730

he will be fairly lucky to ride this month out i reckon. the support in his party has become less and less and most of the labour mps realise their own careers are in danger if he is pm come the next election. hes made the pigs ear of the country i always said he would.

Recession is when your neighbour loses his job.

Depression is when you lose your job.

Recovery is when gordon brown loses his.
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Andy4Fingers · Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 12:30 pm Post subject:

I think that's a tad unfair Dammo. Brown has been incredibly unlucky that he's waited all this time to become prime minister and then a woldwide economic collapse strikes. I think the party will unite round him now because if they don't and he goes then an immediate general election would be inevitable, one which labour would definately lose.

What really annoyed me about Brown was that despite the worldwide problems, the cabinet collapsing, the local elections, MP's expenses being dragged through the papers he still thought he had time to ring up and find out how Susan Boyle was doing!

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

For what is worth I think if Brown survives tomorrow and I am confidnt from my spys that he will then he will still be PM on 01.07.2009 and the bet will be won. Only if the big trade union leaders (GMB, UNISON etc) and other key cabinet members turn against him will he be out by 01.07.2004 and I am confident this is not going to occur - we will see by Monday evening.
I'am happy to take that 1/2 with Ladbrookes he stays till 01.07.2004 at least.

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 6730

i think uve got a virus, yer pc seems to think its 2004!
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Positions are available in the OLBG Lottery syndicate. Multiple lines in each draw increases chances of a jackpot. Wanna join? Please PM me for info.

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

Well "recommended" Bet 1 looking good GB still PM (as predicted) and likely to be so on 01.02.2009.

I'am going to look around to see if we can find one or two more good political bets.

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

Should read "likely to be so on 01.07.2009.

Systemsman · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 187

Well I think I have found another little plum to pick. How about this for an investment?

House of Commons Speaker Specials - Next Permanent Speaker

Ballot on June 22

This look likes another 5* bet.

Recommend: Get on John Bercow to be the next speaker at 3/1 with Wiliam Hill (amazing price) or 37/13 with Betfair.
Now just to play safe your should consider a stakes saver on Ann Widdecombe at 7/1 with Bet365 (receiving some late support but I just cant see her winning) and Sir George Young at 7/1 PaddyPower or 7/1 Betfair (he looks a serious challanger to John Bercow but its odd Ann Widdescombe is now 2nd Fav).

Another option would be bet on John Bercow to win today and place your stake saver nearer to the election on June 22 and bet on the 2nd Fav only as the stake saver.

Homework
This looks a good investment on John Bercow (a Conservative but suported by Labour) not because eveybody likes him but because the Conservatives cant find anyone better. Most serious commentators seem to think he stands the most chance of winning at this stage and I think his price will drop lower. Ann Widdecombe has come in for some supprt today but think this is an act of deperation as the Conservatives feel that Sir George Young probably woud not beat John Bercow but for me he is the more serious challanger. An interestng bet.

Read this article
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/benedict-brogan/5498157/John-Bercow-is-the-Speaker-that-Parliament-is-going-to-get-but-not-the-one-it-needs.html

"By last night, the number of possible candidates had risen to eight: five Conservatives, two from Labour and one Liberal Democrat. With such a wide field, and 11 days to go, it seems premature to predict the outcome. But in the past few days, I have struggled to find anyone who does not expect Mr Bercow to be elected. Conservatives have all but given up, and are instead looking for ways to make sure everyone knows he will win without Tory votes. On the Labour side, no other candidate is securing significant support. "

"He has, admittedly, secured wider support within Labour: from the Right of the party, from Cabinet ministers, including David Miliband, from Labour women, and from those who accept that it has to be a Tory and see him as the least worst option. They claim that he is the only candidate who combines parliamentary experience and modernising credentials. "