WSOP Main Event Betting

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:56 pm Post subject: WSOP Main Event Betting

I've been concentrating a lot more on gambling than poker recently but with the WSOP main event starting on friday I thought I'd take a look at the betting to see if there was anything that stood out.

Small stakes for interest - Phil Ivey to win the WSOP Main Event @ 150/1 (Bet365) & Phil Ivey to make the final table @ 66/1 (Blue Square)

Surprisingly (it was a surprise to me anyway) Bet365 make Gus Hansen favourite to win the main event. They price him up at 125/1 (he's 250/1 with sporting bet to win and 150/1 with Blue Square to make the final table) and have got the legend Phil Ivey joint 2nd favourite at 150/1 (100/1 with sporting bet) along with Negreanu, Dwan and Helppi.
To my mind Ivey is streets ahead of the competition. He's already won another 2 bracelets this year, and managed to finish 22nd in the $5000 Pot-Limit Omaha Eight-or-better event, despite only playing in it while he was on breaks from another tournament! He seems to have found his WSOP rhythm after a disappointing WSOP in 2008 where he didn't win a single event, and he has already won a WPT event this year. He has also placed in the top 25 of the main event 3 times in the last 7 years.

The field will be huge again (maybe 7000+) but the cream should rise to the top and I think Ivey looks like the man to get behind.

Oddschecker's WSOP Main Event Odds

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:41 pm Post subject:

Also small stakes - Daniel Negreanu to reach the final table @ 66/1 (SkyBet)

He's a quality tournament player and read his opponents ncredibly well. 66/1 looks a pretty fair price to me.

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:51 pm Post subject:

I hope you are right with Daniel Negreanu Andy. He is my favourite player. I love the way he is always the talk of the table and how well he can read people from their emotions so well. 66/1 is a relatively nice price. I wont bet on him though as i don't want to jinx him.
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Andy4Fingers · Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:16 pm Post subject:

He does seem like one of the nicest pro players and I like the fact that he wanted to train young, up and coming players.
I like the Scotty Nguyen impressions he does too (Here's the link to one).

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Thu Jul 02, 2009 8:50 am Post subject:

I didn't think I'd be extolling UK bookmakers, but the US bookie betus.com go a measly 20/1 on Negreanu and Ivey reaching the final table.
As far as I'm concerned the Americans can keep their low petrol prices, huge food portions and sensible leader in government as long as we get better odds at the bookies.

stereoman · Group 2 Class Joined: 29 Nov 2005 Posts: 100

Hmmm. Fool's errand betting on this what with 5000+ runners.

Some fella apparently made £10,000 betting on Jon Kalmar to reach the final table a couple of years ago so it isn't impossible just highly improbable.

Skinny odds to make the final table and even skinnier odds to pick the winner.

If last year's final table is anything to go by you'd have done well to have picked out David Rheem (the pros' choice to win from the nine left), Ivan Demidov and the eventual winner, Peter Eastgate to reach the final table.

It'll most likely be eight 'unknowns' plus one semi-known professional poker player again.

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 2:52 am Post subject:

Bet365 have priced up what the winning hand will be at the final table and for my money they've got it wrong.

They have a pair as the most likely winning hand (with high card 2nd favourite and 2 pair close behind), and while I would agree that pairs are obviously more likely to come up, I don't agree that at the WSOP main event final where there is likely to be a prize difference of around $3million between the winner and 2nd place (and of course the bracelet) that many will be tempted to shove with a measly pair.
I checked the history of the winning hand and it very much supports my theory. Of the last 12 winning hands (going back to Stu Ungar's win in 1997) 5 have been full houses, 5 have been straights, 1 has been 2 pair and only 1 has been a pair! I checked the price for a straight since the last 2 finals have been won with that and it's 10/1, with a full house at 20/1.
Based on the evidence it seems as though players wait for the bigger hands to go all-in with when heads up at the final table (which seems logical to me since it's likely to be the most important hand of their lives), so I think there's a lot of value to be had in dutching the winning hand to be a straight @ 10/1, a full house @ 20/1 and a flush @ 12/1. It seems to me that Bet365 have priced this market up based on the chances of the hand occuring rather than the chances of a player pushing it all in or calling with it.

I recommend dutching 'the winning hand of the final table to be':
Straight @ 11 (42.19% of total stake), Flush @ 13 (35.7% of total stake), Full House @ 21 (22.1% of total stake) for combined odds of just over 4.6

I'm prepared to put a fairly decent stake on this since I think Bet365 have priced it up incorrectly, and I fully expect the odds to drop to about half of what they are now.

Here's a link to the odds

Enigma · Listed Class Joined: 02 Jul 2009 Posts: 32

Good write up Andy4Fingers, would probably have a bit of a punt but I hate having cash tied up for 5 months, best of luck though Win

Andy4Fingers · Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:15 pm Post subject:

Well Negreanu had a short main event - less than 3 hours by my reckoning! His pair of 3's was no match for his opponents pocket queens, and the board changed nothing for either player so he's gone.

Lets hope Phil Ivey does better than that tomorrow.

bettingpro · 2yo Joined: 06 Jul 2009 Posts: 5

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Andy4Fingers · Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 10:54 pm Post subject:

He's doing well at the moment Bettingpro - top of the day 1D chip count after 3 hours of play on 78,000. Next highest, Dennis Payton, has 64,000 and Phil Ivey has 42,000 (starting stack is 30,000).

bettingpro · 2yo Joined: 06 Jul 2009 Posts: 5

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