NFL Week 12

[daviee501]

This week my 5 picks are:-

Packers, -3.5 pts

Panthers, moneyline

Buccs, -3pts

Browns, -3.5pts

Seahawks, -3pts
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[manafana]

17:30 GB Packers @ DET Lions
GB Packers-3.5 (Point Spread) @ 2.13
Linos had been solid for most of the season but have now lost two in a row and are on a slide with the loss to arizona been most disapointing. The leagues best Pass offense in Packers plays one of the worst pass defenses in the league and that should keep the packers 7pts ahead in this game and overs is a distinct possibilty.
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[Inatimate1]

I can't really see much value in any of tonights matches to be honest. Cowboys are 1/9 to beat the Jets, which cannot be classed as any sort of value bet, and the handicap of Dallas -14pts doesn't offer me any incentive either, as the Jets have played well so far in terms of keeping themselves in matches, and have only lost by over 14 points once this season, and that was on the opening day against the unbeaten Patriots, but I would rarely take a visiting side on the Point Spread so this one is a clear avoidance for me...

The Packers against the Lions is another match which could go either way. The Packers are favourites for the straight win @ 1.58, which is some sort of value, but the Lions are also 4-1 at home this season, and if ever there were a game where they have to raise their game to 200% then it would be tonight. The risk of going 4 games behind the Packers in the NFC North is too much of a risk to them, as that would basically leave them fighting for a Wild Card spot into the playoffs, and with this WC spot they would be more than likely to travel to a side with a decent Home record which could spell the end of their path to the Super Bowl...
Packers would go 10-1 with a win, and put themselves 4 clear of the Lions in their division meaning that either the Lions would need to win all their remaining games, and the Packers would have to lose all of theirs in order for them not to win the division. This could be seen as a decisive game in their season as well, and they would be out to give it their all and try and win this game...
Because of this, I would have to honestly say that it will probably be down to who wants to win this match more, and I cannot say who that is likely to be, and so it's well worth avoiding in my view...

My Tip for tonight - Keep your money in your pocket
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7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition

[jbowman]

25 Nov 18:03
203 BUF Bills +8.0 10/11
5-5----1L-----(2-2 on the Road)
204 JAX Jaguars -8.0 10/11
7-3-----2W-----(3-2 at Home)

25 Nov 18:03
211 MIN Vikings +7.0 10/11
4-6-----1W-----(1-4 Road)
212 NY Giants -7.0 10/11
7-3-----1W-----(3-2 Home)

25 Nov 21:18
219 BAL Ravens +9.5 10/11
4-6-----4L-----(1-4 Road)
220 SD Chargers -9.5 10/11
5-5-----1L-----(4-1 Home)

26 Nov 01:18
221 PHL Eagles +22.0 10/11
5-5-----2W-----(3-2 Road)
222 NE Patriots -22.0 10/11
10-0-----10W-----(4-0 Home)

27 Nov 01:33
223 MIA Dolphins +16.0 10/11
0-10-----10L-----(0-5 Road)
224 PIT Steelers -16.0 10/11
7-3-----1L-----(5-0 Home)

[RussBradley2004]

Hey there guys, sorry ive not posted my picks for a few weeks, but hopefully after crunching the numbers and doing some work on this week games i have found some winners and some value, ive looked at all games but obviously some are too close to call.

1. BET OF THE WEEK:
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs St Louis Rams
This is crazyness personified from the bookmakers in my opinion. Yes the Rams are on a 2 game winning streak (after losing 8!), but man oh man did they struggle to beat the 49ers who are worse than the Dolphins. Seattle has found a good passing game where it does not need to get into 3rd and long with an ineffective running game. Branch back, Morris looks useful and the defense is playing good football right now. I would take -6.5 Seattle so i think this is a gift.

2. New England Patriots - 22 vs Philadelphia
Now i know the spread looks huge but lets break this one down. The Eagles have injury problems in their secondary.....that really is not what you want when dealing with Moss, Stallworth, Welker et al. AJ Feeley looks to start, no McNabb so Westbrook will be the only danger in my opinion. Patriots will get a lead early and then the Eagles wll have to throw the ball to get back into it....won't happen. Patroits then have more time on offense to rack up the points and pull Brady out of the game after 3 quarters!! This could be a huge win on Sunday night football for the Brady bunch

3. Baltimore Ravens +7.5 vs San Diego
Now lets get one thing straight, Baltimore have been playing awful as of late but i think they will cover in this one. Firstly, Boller is at least connecting on some big plays which is helping the Ravens score some points. Secondly, you can't run against the Ravens so that means Rivers has more responsibility in the passing game....hmm....not that appealing! Baltimore lost big in Pittsburg because of 6 turnovers and as long as a disaster like that doesnt happen, i think Baltimore keep this one close by locking down LT.

4. Jacksonville Jags to beat Buffalo
Ok i doubt i need to explain myself here, the odds are quite low at around 1.25 but this is one to go in accumulators etc. Jags are a very decent team, led upfront by Henderson and Stroud (might play), and ive been very impressed with Garrard and the little man, Maurice Jones-Drew. Buffalo have no Lynch, and no real threat on offense. Jags are simply too good here, -7.5 is a big spread but i would be inclined to take that as i cannot see the Bills keeping this a one score game!

5. Browns vs Houston - my tip = stay away, it depends on which Houston team turns up, i can see this being close and high scoring around 30-27 which most Cleveland games are! Nothing else appeals here.

6. Saints vs Panthers - again stay away. it all depends on New Orleans, very hot and now very cold again. I think low scoring here but if Brees has a good day...the scoreline could be anything.

7. Arizona Cardinals to beat San Fran
Needs no explanation, Arizona defense are taking the ball away and stop the run of late (oh dear Gore), another one for accumulators. The spread of -10.5 is steep so i'm avoiding it.

8.New York Giants vs Minnesota
Straight money line again for me here. The Giants have enough power through Strahan and Usi to dominate the O-line of the Vikings despite the expected double teams, Steve Hutchinson and everything else. Vikings cant throw, Giants can cause 3rd and long....trouble for Minnesota me thinks.

9. Broncos vs Bears - im staying clear, Broncos are not good on the road and the Bears are simply not good. Toss a coin and see which one it lands on. I imagine Cutler might be able to sneak a win out of the bag but Soldier Field can be tricky. Grossman wont lose the game for the Bears so another close one you would think.

10. Oakland vs Kansas City
Low scoring here, i might even take under 34.5. No running back for Kansas City after Priest hangs up his spikes and LJ is injured....Oakland are not too bad defensively but offensively they are poor. Kansas wont conceded many points in this one, home field advantage will help as per usual at Arrowhead. Tough line of -4.5 for Chiefs to beat with no real RB threat....im not sure here, but i certainly wouldn't be taking Oakland +4.5. I imagine Chiefs win by a FG or TD in low scoring affair.

11. Tampa Bay Bucs to beat Redskins
Another tough game but i cant not go with Garcia and the Bucs at home. Redskins have injuries in their secondary and TO destroyed them with Romo last week and i think Joey Galloway could have a big day. Another tight game you would imagine but these are the types of games the Bucs win and the Redskins lose in my book. If Washington are to win, they must play smashmouth football with Portis and Betts carrying the ball often and hard. I think the Bucs will do enough to edge them here though, around 20-17.

12. Tennessee vs Cincinnatti
No thanks! Horrible job trying to pick this game as Titans gave up some huge plays n Denver and Palmer could do the same to them on sunday. HOWEVER, the Bengals are very poor defensively....and Titans can stop the run if Albert Haynesworth plays...in short, im not sure.


Thanks guys, i hope you read this and found it useful, of course i hope all these tips come in Let me know what you think. Any questons then just let me know....best of luck!

cheers,
Russ

[welshie1]

My fancy's for today are

The Saints to bat the Panthers

Drew Brees starting to get his passing game going especially with Marques Colston they look like a really good combination, also Reggie Bush has been doing well in the air for the Saints despite being a Tailback. Panthers defense has been very poor this year and will struggle to keep up with dynamic Saints offense

The Broncos to beat the Bears

Rex Grossman just doesnt get enough protection by his offensive line and he comes under a lot of pressure, RB Cedric Benson is not the best blocker either and Denver will look to exploit this. Selvin Young is in good form for the Broncos and he will be difficult to stop if he gets his game going

Patriots -24.0 v the Eagles

One reason the Patriots offense is just fantastic the way they put big numbers up is amazing, they have 2 of the players who will be in the running for league MVP in Brady and Moss

[RickJ]

A good day Sat winning both ncaa fb games. Northern Illinois covered at the end with a touchdown. Ohio had a great 2nd half to win the game.

Today only 1 play I can see in the nfl and its a total:

New England under 51

In the Hilton contest I went 2-2-1 moving from 21 to 22nd. My overall record there is 30-20-5 right at 60%

But....My first 2 plays in the Hilton Contest both lost..... Atlanta +11.5 and Detroit +3.5 So I will need a 3-0 day just to go 3-2 for the weekend. Not a good spot to be in. The rest of my plays in the Hilton Contest today are:

Buffalo +7.5
San Fran +10.5
Oakland +5.5

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Record to date:


NFL (07-08)
Sides 13-9 +3.55
Total

Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 32-13-2 +18.25

NBA 07-08
Sides 2-4 -2.20
Total 0-1 -1.05

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 1-0 +1.40
totals:

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

nhl
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Nba
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sept 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov: 37 bet +3.10 units +8.38%
Year2 65 bet +19.20 +29.54%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 799 bets +69.90 +8.75%

[manafana]

18:00 SEA Seahawks @ STL Rams
SEA Seahawks-3.0 (Point Spread) @ 1.91
Seattle come to St Louis looking to seal the divisonal title. They dont like rushing but will pass all night and rams will sturggle to defend that. Seattle beat the 49ers by 24-0 while rams scrapped a 4pt win their last week. -3 is a fair handicap and one of my bigger bets this week.

18:00 TEN Titans @ CIN Bengals
TEN Titans+0.0 (Money Line) @ 2.04
Bengals not played that well and lost to a poor arizona side. Titans actually put up some nice numbers v Broncos but failed with key mistakes in the red-zone. Under less presure today from bengals titans can take this.

18:00 WAS Redskins @ TB Buccaneers
TB Buccaneers-3.5 (Point Spread) @ 2.04
Tampa Bay are solid at home going 4-1 this season Garcias having a good season throwing 10+ yards a pass comfortably and has only throw interception in 1 of 10 matchs. With Washington missing some key CBs they could sturggle to stop Galloway out wide. Redskins arnt bad side but they may just find it to though against an in form tampa.
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