NFL Week 16

[daviee501]

Thursday Night Game:-

Steelers -7.5pts and Under 43.5pts
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[Antony OLBG]

At this stage of the season you really need to understand what teams motives are
- are they firecely competing for the playoffs
- do they have critical seeding to play for
- do they have minor seedings to play for
- are they mostly interested in resting players for the playoffs
- are they out of the playoffs and in a mess
- are they out of the playoffs but the players are playing hard for their careers


PITTSBURGH @ ST LOUIS
Pittsburg fall into the first category here as while they could win their Division, they could conceivably miss the playoffs completely with a bad finish to the season. Hence you can be sure they will be playing to the maximum. If Steelers win tonight they win the Division

St Louis are in one of the bottom two catageories. Im not aware of plans for major team changes in St Louis as they have a lot of talent especially on offence its just a few injuries and some lack of organisation seems to have let them down. They are likley to be continuing to find "the way to win".

Steelers have lost their last 2 and their D is pretty banged up leading to conceding quite a few points in recent weeks and with a short week to prepare here you have to worry about them. The Rams offence with Bulger back is always capable of scoring points.

On the other side the St Louis D has been a problem all year and the Steelers have a highly rated offence.

With the game played in a dome taking out any weather concerns this all points to a fairly high scoring game.

Conclusion
I think the steelers will win but stranger things do happen so 1.3 doesnt really appeal given their leaky D - a couple of turnovers and it could be expensive
I am very unsure if they will cover - they wont care if they cover thats for sure. If they get up early then chances are they may break away but that remains to be seen
What seems more likley is that there should be some points hence over 43.5 at 1.95 Betfair is the pick

[football follower]

Top tip Antony. Took the Steelers minus the cap myself, but your overs selection was green by half-time. Great analysis and selection.

[candyman]

Nice one Antony. Followed your advice and got some success on a bet that has let me down often this season.

[candyman]

Dallas Cowboys v Carolina Panthers +10.5 points 89/100@Coral

I am a pessimistic Cowboys fan and I can see them losing out on home field advantage to the Packers especially with the way they have been playing the past couple of weeks.
The Cowboys don't like this time of year. They have not posted a winning record for regular season games in December and January since 1996 and are 16-29 in that time.
Carolina are no mugs and I think they will run the stuttering Cowboys close and even if Dallas do get the win I can't see them winning by over 10.

[Antony OLBG]

Interesting "over value" treble today

IF you think Browns will beat the Bengals and JAGs will see off Oakland then theres value in combining these with the Jets over Tennessee - heres why

Titans have an outside shot at the playoff but need wins and results going their way. However they play at 9pm tonight AFTER the Jags and Browns have played & consequently if those two do win then the Titans will be going into that match feeling very very flat. Now of course they are at home and they are against the Jets so you might want to take Jets+8.5 rather than straight win but the course of events could well play out that the odds/spread on the TEN/NYJ match could look very wrong come 9pm

Same thing happened in 2005 where early wins for the Redskins, Giants and Panthers eliminated Dallas and they proceded to lose at home to St Louis (who were 13/2 I think!)

Of course you need the first two teams to win for this to have any relevance but both of them need one more win to be certain of the playoffs and are playing teams whose season is over. Im a bit nervous about Cleveland doing it as the Bengals are so unpredicatable but I feel Im getting a good enough price for it for it to be worth the risk

[Antony OLBG]

Games to Avoid
WAS @ MIN
Both teams need to win and both pretty decent sides. Id expect the Vikings to win but the Redskins on their day would win this as they have a better QB right now.

KC @ DET
Two teams with nothing to play for and its hard to work out if one will be trying harder that the other

PHI @ NO
Both very unpredicatable. Eagles seem to be improving and making a point for next year & are enjoying making their openents sweat. Saints have slim playoff hopes so should be trying.

TB @ SF
Bucs have clinched the division and are #3 or #4 seed. If I were them Id lose this game and play for #4 seed and go to a warm Dallas rather than almost certain defeat at Lambeau in January (This assumes Dallas win next week at Washington - who will possibly be elimiated from the playoffs by the Vikings this week).

BAL @ SEA
Same situation as the Bucs although they wouldnt be quite as incovenienced by Lambeau as the Bucs. You still have to wonder if they'll decide to rest players

[Antony OLBG]

HOU @ INDI
Colts rested some players 2 seasons ago and it backfired big time on them so Im certain they will want to keep up the winning momentum. I guess ideally they would want to get up by a big margin and then rest in the 3rd Q but Im not sure they'll be able to do it against the resurgent Texans under their new QB.
Indi on the moneyline only

GB @ CHI
Snow is a possibilty here so probably low scoring game with Packers edging it .
GB on moneyline only

MIA @ NE
The win last week could give the Dolphins a big lift and with the weather forecast at 6 degrees and the Patriots offence looking a bit less impressive in recent weeks I quite fancy the dolphins to put up a bit of a fight. Division rivalry + defending the "perfect season" could give this game a bit of an edge.
Dolphins +22

[johno]

Tampa Bay @ SF

In 3rd spot and have a lot more to play for than SF, Seattle are chasing and Tampa need this win.

ML and tease the line Tampa -5

Ravens @ Seattle

Big game for seattle and Balitmore are struggling big time this season. However getting +11 is huge. I see the Ravens covering here.

[johno]

Houston @ Indy

I think the 2nd string will be pumped up for this, Indy certainly wont wish to lose at home..especially with them moving stadiums, next season.
However I do agree with Ant, its a massive +7 to Houston who will want to finish on a level/winning season..so they could certainly cover.

With the Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson QB/WR duo making big plays every week and Ron Dayne continuing to grind out tough yards on the ground, look for the Texans to keep this one close, with a chance at the outright upset...

INDY ml only

gL

[RickJ]

On Sat we had Milwaukee over in the nba and they won.

Today 2 plays in the nfl

Atlanta +10
Jets + 8.5

In the Hilton contest last week I went 3-2. Too little too late:)

My record now is 38-32-5 which is 54.28%

My plays this week are:

St louis +7.5 already lost:(
Oakland +13
Atl +10
Jets +9
Baltimore +10


Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com


Record to date:

NFL (07-08)
Sides 15-10 +4.50
Total 0-1 -1.05

Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 32-13-2 +18.25

NBA 07-08
Sides 4-7 -3.30
Total 2-2 -0.10

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 2-0 +2.90
totals:

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

nhl
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Nba
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 10 bets +2.30 units +23.00%
Year2 78 bet +20.40 +26.15%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 812 bets +71.10 +8.76%%

[manafana]

18:00 CLE Browns @ CIN Bengals
CLE Browns-2.5 (Point Spread) @ 1.91
-2.5 is very fair for a browns team looking to get itself a play-off spot. These teams meet at start of season but expectations have been reversed and browns look the over acheivers of the season. They should have too much for a bengals defense that cant cope with the pass and will have to cover the rush of lewis as well.
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