NFL Week 17

[Antony OLBG]

Always tricky in the last couple of weeks

Cleveland, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota and New Orleans are the only teams that NEED to win to give themselves a chance of the playoffs. Tenessee play after Cleveland so if the Browns blow it and dont beat the 49ers (unlikley) then the Titans will be in and hence may rest players against Indi. Saints play early but they need to win and hope for losses and the Vikings and Redskins play at 9.15 so both should be up for it.

Tampa Bay & Seattle are already locked in as #4 and #3 seeds respectively so given they dont have a bye week youve got to think they will be resting

San Diego and Pittsburgh are fighting got #3 seed which is way preferable than the #4 seed as the #4 has to host Jacksonville and then go to New England (versus hosting Tennessee maybe & going to Indi). Chargers are in the driving seat here and both teams play at the same time so no result opportunities here

Jacksonville and Giants are also bothy locked into #5 seeds with wild card road trips next week so they'll be looking to rest players

Dallas, GB, Indi & NE are all locked in #1 and #2 seedings with only New England having their perfect season to preserve (against a Giants team likley to not put up a fight)

Of the teams out of the playoffs Phili seem to be playing well and the Bears have maybe something to prove. St Louis also havent been so bad in recent weeks.

So that leaves us with

Patriots will no doubt beat the Giants but you wont get rich backing that. They may try to get 2 TDs for Brady and Moss to get more records so Moss Anytime touchdown is probably worth a shout but 2/9 is not great - given they could be focused on this Id reckon 3/1 about Moss 1st TD is much better value. I doubt they'll rest until they have the game won as they have the bye week anyway.

Redskins should win as should the Browns. Im less sure about the Titans and Vikings. I think the Eagles will continue their good form but the Bills arent bad so Id just take the win rather than the handicap.

Many of the rest could go either way so a few with big positive handicaps might appeal

Main Bets
Moss FTD
Eagles ML
Redskins ML

Other Singles
Chiefs+6.5
Vikings-3
Rams+6
Panthers-3

[audiojunkie99]

Hi everybody...this is my first time posting on the forum so go easy on me. I have made some of my own predictions for the NFL weekend and was wandering what everybody thought. Here goes...

JAX JAGS +6.5pts
NO SAINTS -2pts
PIT STEELERS -3pts
TIT vs. COLTS over 39pts
SD CHARGERS -9pts
GB PACKERS -4.5pts

Putting all this together in a multiple gives odds of around 45/1. Any thoughts?

[Antony OLBG]

welcome audiojunkie - what made you go for those picks?

[johno]

Nice market picks Ant for the Pats game...looks a good final week17. Some teams with lots to play for, some looking at draft positions.
Will be back later with my thoughts and selections.

[lee cufc]

your views for the pats - gaints game please

i am not sure what kind of side the pats will put out and i feel the gaints can cover the spread of +13 and a half
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[RussBradley2004]

hey guys, hopefully we can get some good debate going before the postseason kicks off, as there is some value in the lines this week

as far as the PATS game is concerned, great write up Ant, lets get one thing straight, Brady and Moss and Welker and all their starters will play for the first half; i expect Brady to play until he throws 2 TD and Moss catches 2

I dont think the Giants care about this game and will be taking Pats -13.5, simply on the basis i dont think the Giants have the offense going to stay with New England.

Moss to score 1st TD is v v good value at 3/1

rest of picks will come tomorrow

[manafana]

Critical write up Ant, would advise all too watch the nfl previews so people know the situation. I reckon Colts could upset the titans just to get them out of their draw, colts got some decent back up and their defense is awesome and if they get up by the half it will be their game.
New England should cover tonight moss and brady looking to break records and should score enough to socre -13.5. Giants will rush so unders with clock running should be worth a go.
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[audiojunkie99]

Hi there...audiojunkie back again. I have been asked to explain my pedictions that I laid down earlier, so here goes and all constructive criticism welcome.

PIT -3.0pts: Although the Steelers are already in the playoffs they could win a #3 seed here with a win (providing Chargers lose). This im led to believe would result in an easier route to the Superbowl. Rumours are that Roethlisberger (QB) hasnt been in practice, but if he does start you have a match up of a Steelers record-holdind, 32 TD passes with only 11 interceptions QB, against almost the worst passing defence in the NFL. Recent form is on the side of the Steelers, along with their overall record (PIT 10-5 vs. BAL 4-11). BAL have the home advantage and are playing for pride, but I dont see a 3pt handicap being a problem for PIT.

NO -2.0pts: OK, the NO Saints can still get into the playoffs here. Its a long shot, beause as I understand it they need the Redskins and the Vikings to lose, but you have to expect that they're going to give it a good go. The Chicago Bears are playing for pride here (no playoff chance) and wont want to disappoint in front of a home crowd, but lets look at the stats...NO are in the top ten for AWAY wins and the Bears are joint 20th! for HOME wins. If you add that NO are 9th in the NFL for points conceded AWAY against an 18th ranked Chicago offence it could be close...and in the grand scheme of an American football game is a 2pt h/cap that much to overcome if you want a playoff position?

GB -5.0pts: The Packers (12-3) play DET (7-8). The Lions have lost 6 of their last 7 games and have to travel to one of the top seeded teams, who im sure arent going to want to disappoint the home fans on the last day of the regular season. Although playoffs are guaranteed (along with a first round bye - therefore not necessary to rest key players, because they get a break anyway) I dont think GB will want to give up another game to an NFC rival after last weeks slip against the Bears. AWAY The Lions have the worst Defense in the NFL and GB are almost top 5 for points scored at home. I think GB -5pts is generous and may be slightly influenced by last weeks result against Chicago.

JAX +6.5pts: On the face of it HOU have alot going for them. They've won 2 of the last 3 meetings, they have home advantage and because they havent made the playoffs, theres no reason why they'd be resting any key players. JAX on the other hand are in the playoffs and rumour has it they may sit out key play makers like Garrard (QB). In my opinion, JAX will have a view that they are playing an AFC South rival who they defeated earlier in the season 37-17 and like any other team in the NFL this weekend will want to finish on a high, thus carrying some momentum into the post season. Statiscally JAX are ranked 6th for AWAY wins and have a joint 5th ranked scoring offence (AWAY). I think JAX will start players like Garrard, build a small lead and then try and keep HOU at bay in the second half. It'll be closer than 37-17, but a 6.5pt headstart for the Jaguars should be enough.

TEN vs. IND - Over 39pts: For me this is an interesting one. I just cant decide which way this will go. The Titans will throw everything and the kitchen sink at it, because their playoff hopes depend on it and most bookies such as Bet365 have them as favourites. Last time (@ Tennessee) it was close, just 2pts seperated them (Colts win). Looking at it from one point of view, the Colts will be resting up for the post season (key players out then), but they're at home and would obviously still want to beat their AFC south rivals for themselves and the fans. So I cant call a winner here, even with h/caps!, but the bookies have put the over/under line at 39pts. Each team here has only had 1 of their last 4 games end in a total under 40pts. IND have the second highest points average at home (30pts), but TEN will be hungry for the victory.

Now I've decided to scrap the SD Chargers from my picks as Bet365 moved the line and put a -12pt (previously -9pt) h/cap on them. The Chargers should win, but they're away to an Oakland team playing for pride and a 13pt margin might be just a bit too much. But what I take away with one hand and I giveth with the other (or something like that)...Here are three more picks for you to discuss:

1. WAS Redskins to beat DAL
2. CLE Browns to beat SF
3. MIN -3pts (vs. DEN)

WAS to bt DAL: WAS have won the last 2 matchups against the Cowboys when at home and in this particular case you have a Redskins team wanting a playoff spot against a depleted/resting Cowboys side that are already there. I watched the Cowboys play the Panthers last weekend and after Owens went off injured it made a big difference and DAL did well to contain CAR at the end. Im not so generous to WAS that ill think they'll do it with a -9pt h/cap, but they should win all the same.

MIN -3pts: Again this comes down to playoff qualification hopes. The WAS result affects MIN chances of progression, but the games are being played at the same time so MIN will be up for it. I dont have alot of time personally for DEN who are a fairly medioka side and statiscally dont quite have the measure of the Vikings.

CLE to bt SF 49ers: Finally the Browns. Cleveland are ranked joint 5th for home wins in the NFL and like everyone else would like to finish the regular season on a high in front of a home crowd. Cleveland do have one of the worst defenses statiscally, but likewise the 49ers have one of the worst offenses. Add to this tho, that the 49ers are the biggest (almost) conceders of points in the NFL when on their travels, swings the favour to the Browns. Although Clevelands fate rests in the hands of the Titans, I wouldnt expect them to sit back and I'm sure they can take advantage of the 49ers porous defence.

Regards

audiojunkie

[RussBradley2004]

audiojunkie,

welcome to the forum! i think i speak for everyone on here when i say NFL matches sometimes come down to one big play, like a turnover for instance and that completely determines the outcome of the line, so it can be pretty tough to alwyas right but at least with good research and analysis we can minimalize the element of chance, which is the aim of course.

some nice write up of your tips there, i shall post mine tomorrow, but i have to say now that i agree with most of your views. But beware in the Dallas game, Brad Johnson is playing for Cowboys and he is a decent substitute to have and i expect dallas to play hard for at least a half. Cleveland to beat San Fran and Minesota to beat Denver seem good bets but im not keen on New Orleans in Chicago, the key element here is the weather, its unbelievably cold (see last week game) in chicago and new orleans are a dome team.

bet of the week is in my opinion a seahawks win over the falcons as i think hasselbeck and co will play for 3 quarters and atlanta are not very good to put it mildly.

right im off to see those record breaking patriots...good luck with all your bets guys

[penypicker]

Sorry if this is a stupid idea but...: ODDS STAKE POTENTIAL RETURN
1) New England To Win By 1-6 Points - New England at New York - Winning Margins 11/2 1 6.5
2) New England To Win By 7-12 Points - New England at New York - Winning Margins 9/2 1 5.5
3) New England To Win By 13-18 Points - New England at New York - Winning Margins 4/1 1 5
4) New England To Win By 19-24 Points - New England at New York - Winning Margins 5/1 1 6
5) New England / New York - New England at New York - Half Time / Full Time 22/1 .25 5.75
6) Draw / New York - New England at New York - Half Time / Full Time 28/1 .25 7.25
7) New York / New York - New England at New York - Half Time / Full Time 12/1 .50 6.50
Bet 5.00

Is that such a bad idea? If the pats lose im up, and unless they totally kill new york (25 or more points difference) I'm at worst where I started. Which is my entire explanation >_>

[manafana]

what a game gaints passing game is pushing patroits, new tight end doing a\ very good job.
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[penypicker]

I can't believe this