Joined: 22 Oct 2005 Posts: 2506 Location: Prenton Park TRFC
Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 5:37 am Post subject:
Jaguars @ Patriots
Think the Patriots to win by 12pts or more have to be worth the investment @ 1.9, talk about winning consistancy eh? , but a couple of "less than convincing" wins in recent weeks will probably encourage them to pull their fingers out. They have done the nervy bit of their season, and now they can probably relax slightly more and play like they were at the start of the season, and with the home advantage, they should easily breeze past the Jags who were lucky to get past the Steelers thanks to a late FG after a collapse in the 4th. The Patriots will no doubt prove to be a lot more stubborn, and any chance to score will no doubt be taken. They managed to win by 17 in this fixture towards the start of the season, so this looks like a decent "Punt" for me
Seahawks @ Packers
Ask me before the match what odds I would have offered on this match, and I certainly wouldn't have had the Seahawks @ more than 3/1 for the win here. They did lose what was basically an "Exhibition" match against the Falcons on the last day of the regular season, despite scoring an impressive 41pts, however, the rest of their season has been relatively impressive...
The Packers passing gains tells you everything you need to know about the side, but in terms of defense they haven't been the strongest of sides, which will probably prove to be vital in this match against the Seahawks. Brett Favre can throw a very good game offensively for the Packers, but if the Seahawks can get their tactics right then I think that they could make the evening very difficult here, especially as this is their one and only chance to get their tactics right, and so for me, I think that a close match, and the Seahawks to win with an 8.5pt headstart @ 1.9 looks like the best bet....
Chargers @ Colts
The Chargers were relatively poor on the road for a play-off side, winning half of their road trips with a 4-4 record, so I expect the Colts to do what seems to come naturally to them, and progress to the Divisional Final. The Colts did lose in San Diego earlier in the season, however, in a reverse of the fixture I expect last season's champions to go on to gain sweet revenge here as a certain Payton Manning aims to gain a starting place in the Pro Bowl for the 4th straight Season, and once again face off against the mightly Brett Favre, but to do this he will have to prove that he can throw better than Tom Brady of the Patriots for the remainder of the season, so expect a close to "faultless" display for Manning, and an easy victory by the Colts here by 9pts or more against a relatively low scoring Chargers side who have an extremely low Yards Per Game ratio for the Regular season considering their position in the Playoffs this season...
Giants @ Cowboys
The Cowboys won by 10pts at home and 11pts on the road against the Giants last season, and with them once against facing each other this season, I think that the Cowboys should be able to stroll to victory by the same sort of margin here, even though the loss in Dallas was the only loss on the road for the Giants in the regular season, I think that the Cowboys have shown real class when they have wanted to this season, and in terms of their performance here, to quote the late philosopher Isus Cuebus, "Anything Less Than The Best Is A Felony" , the Giants should put up a fight, but at the end of the day, the Cowboys should have the ability to round them up and send them back to the drawing board for another season, and should be able to win this by more than the 8pts deficit on the handicap...
Review Patriots to win by more than 11.5pts @ 1.9
Seahawks to win with +8.5pts @ 1.9
Colts to win by more than 8.5pts @ 1.9
Cowboys to win by more than 7.5pts @ 1.86
Right, 4.35am, time for bed _________________ Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition
3rd in Cheltenham Festival Competition 2008
As a packers fan im not going to give the reasons why i think we will win as id be obviously slightly biased. I do think we will win but -8.5 is a bit much and hence the value on the handicap must be seattle.
what i will do is talk about the team a bit about the strenghts and weaknesses as i know them well. an hopefully that will help some of you's judge that particular game.
Defence: Green bay have a excellent defence, not sure where you could get any different from our games and the stats. not only that but a tough schedule against a lot of high powered offences has left them with an impressive 18.2 points conceded per game just 1.8 off the best defence indianapolous and in 6th place overall.
the secondary is very strong the corners woodson and harris are as good as there is. The only questionmark is atari bigby who gives up some big plays but may also be most likely to get that key interception or make a big play.
the linebackers are good, young and getting better all the time. At times they are a little slow to stop runners which is the key weakness of the defence; in situations they can have problems stopping the run.
the D-line is good they geyt decent pressure from kampman and KGB as well as a good mix of linebacker blitzes from hawk, poppinga and barnett.
the special teams is amoung the best in the league on both kicking and returning. they very rarely give up big returns. kicker mason crosby is good but not great.
On offence it basically comes down to favre, if he has a good game the packers will win. he is protected decently considering the injuries we hve had on the O-line and his reciever set is probably the deepest in the league. driver and jennings are excellent, jennings is the best reciever you have heard little of, and his YAK is sensational, throw in jones, robinson, martin, TE's lee and franks and even the RB's will get on the act they you have danger all over the place. The problem with favre is there is still the odd really bad game in him, for example what he was doing against dallas nobody knows.
The running game is now very impressive, its often set up by the treat of the pass but not always. ryan grant is a revelation and is not unlikly to break for a long run as he has been doing it well recently. back up brandon jackson is decent but not yet reliable.
Jacksonville @ new england - New england have looked far from their early season form in the last few weeks with close wins against decent teams. They have quiet an old defence and the bye week would have been benifical as they were starting to struggle later in the season. however i really like what ive seen from jacksonville and believe they can control the clock with their running game and i think they can run against new england defence effectivly. Of course the pats will score points but again they have decreased since early in the season. The jacksonville defence is strong. I think it will evedently end in a close New England victory and the bookies could not really have went in single figure on the handicap because of the season they have had, i will definatly be taking Jacksonville with the +11.5 as i dont see them losing by more than a TD.
Bet - jacksonville +11.5 @ 2.02
San Deigo @ indianapolous - Unlike New England Indianapolous have got better and better as the season has gone on. They are exceptional on both sides of the ball and i believe they will again reach the superbowl. The offence is very much a two headed monster; they can hurt the chargers on the ground and throught the air. Their defence is one of, if not the best in the league and can keep San deigo quiet. San deigo have flattered to decieve throughout the year, they have been good and bad and im not convinced they can keep this one close. Their big plus is their turnover forcing defence, the same defence who force manning to throw 6 picks in their game earlier in the season. That wont happen again and the second half of that match showed the true difference between the teams. A game in the end indy should have won.
Bet - Indianapolous -8 @ 1.91 or for the more confident -9 @ 2.06
NY Giants @ Dallas - This one is a bit like the New England game above, a team that has played well all season until the last 3 or 4 weeks. As to weather or not dallas win this game comes own to if TO plays as he is that vital to their offence. Even should he play the giants can stay in this one to the end. They were impressive against a average enough tampa bay at the weekend and will have to improve on that to take this one. The pass rushers will have to get to Romo as he is still carrying the injury and dosnt like to be under pressure. Obviously its hard to argue against the two previous results but i just think that dallas are struggleing recently
Divisional Playoff Notes
(to be updated throughout the week)
As a general rule in this round you have to start with 4 home wins because
1. these are the teams with the best records
2. they have home field advantage (especially for teams in cold climates)
3. theyve had an extra week to prepare physically and tactically
Next you need to look at
1. Team playoff experience
2. QB experience
3. Strength of Defence
Seattle @ Packers
Check climate (home advantage and unders)
Seahawks horrible on the road
Jacksonville @ New England
Check climate (home advantage and unders)
Jaguars will struggle if its too cold or icey
Patriots D seems to be showing signs of age
Pats hugely experienced and tactically superb
Big experience gap
Giants @ Dallas
Check fitness of Sam Madison
Chargers @ Colts
Check fitness of Antonio Gates
Colts far more experienced
I think Im with you on all except possibly the Colt covering, not because the cant but more that they dont often win big in these sort of games. They do look a very balanced team.
I very much agree that New England's main weakness is if they get pounded by a strong running game for 4 quarters which is exactly what the Jags can do. However you can be sure Belichick has a plan for that too. Need to keep an eye on the weather too though as Florida based teams always seem worse in the cold even if they rely on the running game.
Also think Giants with >7 handicap has to be good value IF they have one of their good days
This site seems good for the weather although I dont know how reliable the forecasts are.
Packers weather forecast looks like it will help them although the seahawks will Im sure cope better than some.
Colts play in a dome so the snow forecast is a bit of a red herring
Pats game is an evening KO too so cant imagine it being too inviting for the Jags
http://www.wunderground.com/sports/NFL/
While the JAGs are the #2 Defence against the run they are #31 against the pass (based on yards allowed on the road). And we know the Pats have an awesome passing game and sometimes dont use the running game at all.
Looks like a matchup that will work just fine for the Patriots.
So looks to me like the Pats will throw it and the Jags will run it and both should have a lot of success. I guess if it comes up snowy or windy then this might make it harder for the Pats to pass but they are used to it up there.
Antony - i very much agree with all of what you said to be fair, firstly the indy game, its a very fair point and of course there is no incentive to win big either so a late TD while not effecting the outcome in any way {or a field goal for that matter as san deigo could be very much trying to get within a score very late on} will kill you on the handicap.
To be honest the one overriding factor in going for indy on the h'cap was the performance in the loss, after tons of mistakes and giving away great field position early, indy completely dominated in the second half and i feel if they keep mistakes to a minimum it will be really tough for the chargers to score. Plus indy are significantly healthier than then.
in terms of new england, your correct, what i will say is jacksonville went to a snowing pittsburgh 4 weeks ago and won, but obviously pitts are no new england. that weather site is very useful if it holds up, the weather shouldnt effect the passing game as the wind forcasted is minimal and only a slight chance of rain, i too am worried by the pass defence, didnt quiet realise they were that bad but it was pretty evident against pittsburgh that the secondary wasnt the strongest. i would imagine they will drop more into coverage to protect against it but they will find it tough to stop the 5 wideout set. To me 13 points seems a bit much however, but i can see the arguement that if you can get new england -10.5 or 11 it would be tempting.
Hey there NFL fans, cant wait for an exciting divisional round of playoff footballs.
1st game: SEAHAWKS VS PACKERS
Cheers Dlmachine for your insight into Packers, i can do the opposite for the Seahawks. Lets assume the weather is very cold and a little snowy but the wind is not a huge problem. How much pressure will Favre be under? Well Kerney and Tapp are threats all day long from defensive end, and when they are double teamed, this opens up holes for Petersen, Hill and Tatupu to blitz through. They wont get to Bret has much as they got to Todd Collins but im expecting him to force some throws (he always does under pressure), so expect Hawks defence to create some turnovers, its what they do. Holmgren knows Favre better than anyone, im sure the defense packages will be all about tempting Brett to hit the big plays. Weaknesses are their small stature, the defense is builtfor speed and not power and therefore they are susceptible to big power backs, thankfully Ryan Grant is not this type of runner so this may not be a big problem. The defensive backs are much improved but they are not the quickest in the secondary with Russell and Grant and so Favre's deep ball may convert some big plays.
Offensively, Hasselbeck played not well against the Skins and will need to play better to win this game. I think the receiving corp is the best in the NFC and rivals New England's for best in the league. They start with Nate Burleson and Deion Branch (who is fit again and will play) with Bobby Engram in the slot. Their 3rd receiver is DJ Hackett who is a real great threat and after that Matt will throw to TE Pollard and Heller, Ben Obamanu (what a pair of hands), Mo Morris, Seneca Wallace on the occasional big play and even Shaun Alexander. Very talented bunch although i rate the Pack receivers as next best as a group in the NFC. 9 different Seahawks have got caught TD passes this season. GB have excellent corners in Harris and Woodson, and linebackers Hawk, Poppinga and Barnett so im interested to see if Seattle run the ball much (normally i would say please no, but i think with GB concentrating on the pass then there will be running room). Expect Matt to not have a big day, because of GB defense and maybe the weather, but he will be efficient.
Seattle pass to set up the run and Alexander and Morris will run the ball for around 4 yards per carry, and i think draws and screens will be effective. the weakness is running on 1st and 2nd down, if this happens then GB can force 3rd and long which is never good for an offense.
I think this game depends on the weather, if its really windy and cold i expect Brett to struggle big time (Bears game of 3 weeks ago), im not convinced by their punter also, could be a game turning play on the back of a bad / blocked punt. Green Bay win this game if they protect Favre and the weather is good, but i think taking GB -8 is madness, this one will be close. Given Brett's tendency to throw picks under pressure, i think Seattle on the moneyline @ 4 is fantastic value
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND
I love the Jags in this one. This game is very simple to analyse i think:
Jags will run all day long against a Pats defense that is ageing at LB and gives up typically over 4 yards per carry, Garrard is too good for the Pats to put 8, even 9 men in the box all day long. Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will run and run and run some more with success, just look at the Ravens game for proof that NE couldnt stop the run.
New England wont even try to run, its pointless, Jags are #2 in league against the run, so Brady drops back to pass about 40 times here. Now he either scores with every possession in good weather or he will have a little bit of trouble with cold and windy weather. See the 2nd Jets game for evidence of this and the Ravens game. Jags dont defend the pass well so this contest is a little bit of a no brainer
Right so what will be the outcome? two possibilities:
1. weather is calm at Foxborough, both teams put up points but Brady wins the game for the Pats as even Jacksonville will miss opportunities to score due to penalties, unsuccessful throws etc. Brady can convert 3rd and 20 situations, Jags cant.
2. The weather is windy (most imp.),and / or snowy. Brady cant get his rhythm going, the Jags control the clock with the run, take the lead and unlike other teams, they hold onto it to win the game.
Verdict, you have to, absolutely must take Jacksonville on the handicap surely? im on at +12.5, but anything above a TD is ridiculous in my opinion.
Last edited by RussBradley2004 on Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:12 am; edited 1 time in total
SAN DIEGO @ COLTS
Indy impressive me a hell of a lot. They have a great defense led by Sanders and an offense led by Manning. For the first time this year, since week 1, they are fully healthy. Harrison is back, their OL is fit and raring to go and to be honest i cant see how San Diego can win this one.
Indy lost to SD earlier this season by a field goal under these circumstances:
1. SD at home
2. SD return a punt AND kick off for TDs
3. Vinatieri misses short kick to win the game late on
4. Three of the four top receiving threats were out of the game (Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez). On top of that, both starting left tackle Ugoh was out and right tackle Diem was injured in the 1st half.
5. Manning threw 5 interceptions in windy conditions.
AND they still only just won the game????! Crazy, they have improved after purchasing C Chambers from Miami but Colts will limit LT and i cant see Rivers outgunning Manning with his arm. Always hesitant to take a big handicap in the playoffs as Colts wont be extravagant but they certainly win this game
Verdict: Colts win on moneyline @1.26
GIANTS @ COWBOYS
This is the hardest game to work out in my opinion. Will TO play, if so will he be as effective as their first two meetings this year? Wil Romo be dreadful or brilliant? Will Eli be efficient and accurate? I have to be honest, i thought Dallas looked dreadul recently without TO and thus, i don't like taking DALLAS -7.5, its not a sensible bet for me with the Giants playing good football right now. Their secondary is improved and it would not take much to win this game. They will score points against a good Dallas Defense, but its not great, susceptible against the pass for sure. Taking the Giants on the moneyline is too risky for me, so i think the choice has to go with taking NYG +7.5. Playoff games are normally close games and without TO scoring 50 yard TDs in this one i think Dallas struggle.
Summary:
SEATTLE SEAHAKWS +8.5
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +11.5
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS moneyline
NY GIANTS +7.5
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(c) 2002-2010 Online Betting Guide (OLBG), part of Invendium Ltd 20/03/10 10:39:32
, but a couple of "less than convincing" wins in recent weeks will probably encourage them to pull their fingers out. They have done the nervy bit of their season, and now they can probably relax slightly more and play like they were at the start of the season, and with the home advantage, they should easily breeze past the Jags who were lucky to get past the Steelers thanks to a late FG after a collapse in the 4th. The Patriots will no doubt prove to be a lot more stubborn, and any chance to score will no doubt be taken. They managed to win by 17 in this fixture towards the start of the season, so this looks like a decent "Punt" for me 
, the Giants should put up a fight, but at the end of the day, the Cowboys should have the ability to round them up and send them back to the drawing board for another season, and should be able to win this by more than the 8pts deficit on the handicap...
