NFL Charity Challenge: Seattle @ Green Bay

[Antony OLBG]

See this thread for the background
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic23_17842.html

Need to find one £100 bet to have on this match

Some of the possibles and indicative odds are:

Packers ML @ 1.25
Seahawks ML @ 4
Packers -7.5 @1.9
Seahawks +7.5 @1.9
Under 41 @1.9
Over 41 @1.9

Lets discuss and then maybe I can add a poll later in the week

[dmachine83]

I was saying earlier that as packers fan i thought we would win but it would be under the handicap.

but i stat i have does not really back it up

so far this season the packers have beaten the handicap on 12 of 16 occasions, tied it once and and lost on it 3 times.

of the 12 wins all were in victories, the tie was in a victory, the three loses were interestingly all in losses, twices as favourites once as the underdog.

From that information the packers have not lost on the handicap and won the game which kinda blows my theory out of the water.

on the other hand it just means they are due.

so my pick is seattle
+ 7.5 or 8 or the best avalable.

in terms of overs or unders, if that is to be the bet, id go with overs both teams can scor points even against the good defences they go against, the weather is due to be extreamly cold but dry with little wind. by no means am i really confident about this call at the moment but for now over 41

as an interesting one first penalty Green Bay are priced at 8/11, seattle evs. The prices are set obviously on the season stats which saw the packers give up penalty after penalty, however recently there has been noted improvment and that to the fact that the lambeau crowd may instigated a false start or two early against seattle there mey be some good value at evs on seattle. that evs is with Paddy Power im gonna look around for better, even if we just stick to the normal bets for this it would be one to keep an eye on personally.

[Antony OLBG]

Its interesting that the Packers lost to the Bears twice in the season - Im trying to work out what that means! On both occasions the Packers had 5+ turnovers/fumbles! That has to be a worry

I dont rate the Seahawks especially on the road where there have been consistently poor for years. I think the Packers should win this but Im not sure about the handicap.

Like you I cant really go unders with the spread as low as 41 but we do need to keep an eye on the weather

[dmachine83]

Yeah both of those games were strange. the first one was at lambeau, the two most important turnovers were the 2 fumbles by james jones the rookie WR in the first half one was on or around the chicago 35 the other was on the chicago 6 [he has not fumbled since]. I did not see a team move the ball so easily as the pack did in the first half of that game all season long. in the second favre made a few mistakes and the pack started running the ball when they were struggleing to do so; before ryan grant.

the second game was in week 16 they looked like they were not up for it like they should have been, Favre really struggled with the very strong wind, which would be key to keep an eye on this week, and the punter had a career bad day 1 blocked punt for a TD, 1 blocked punt recovered inside the 10, one shanked for 9 yards. and one he fumbled in his own half and obviously lost. Has two be put down to the conditions really as he didnt put a foot wrong the rest of the season so he caused 3 of the turnovers. favre threw two picks in that wind, to be fair it could have been more they had a few drops too.


just to add an interesting fact i have just read - seattle have won one postseason game outside seattle in their history in 1983 V's miami, obviously it does not tell a lot about this game, probably just shows how difficult it is to win on the road in the p'offs

[welshie1]

I would go for Over 41 points in this game.

The last time these two played in 2006 it was 34-24 to Seattle in what was a game that became famous for the first time snow fell at a Seahawks home game. These two faced off in 2003 in the NFC Wild Card matchup Packers won this time 33-27, another encounter with some big points scored. I fancy another high scoring game this weekend as both have got solid offense, both have good RB's, although Seahawks Shaun Alexander has not been in form he can turn it on and Ryan Grant has been brilliant. These two sides have great QB's and solid receiving options and as I said it rained snow back in 2006 but it will rain TD's in 2008.
_________________
China Open 2008 Snooker Challenge Runner Up

[Antony OLBG]

Yes I have a feeling for over two with both teams looking better at stopping the run than using it. This should mean more passing plays which typically means more points. With a low 40s spread it looks quite good value. Need to check the weather though

[Antony OLBG]

Voting now added - I think Ive found the 3 main fancies

[dmachine83]

Tough call between 2 for me, ive gone for seattle +8 as without the the chance of snow id have gone overs but appairently there is a 20% and that would kill that bet. the packers will win this 3 of 4 times so the money line is about right but maybe only one of those three would be over 8. so its the call

[johno]

Packers ML

The Seahawks are playing good defense, but the Packers are a big step up in terms of offense. Brett Favre will make this one look easy.

interesting game to start us off, 930 saturday night

[RussBradley2004]

lets try and work this one out:

1. Are the Pack good value on the moneyline? No, Seahawks are on a great run since Holmgren made the passing adjustment, the loses to Panthers and Atlanta are not good indicators of this team's away form as they had already secured number 3 seed.

2. Are the Pack as good in cold weather, snow even? NO, Favre looked awful against Chicago in that snowy windy game, their running game only works when Favre passes to open up the defense. Also, their Punter was absolutely dreadful in that game...could be a big factor with Burleson returning punts.

3. Will the Seahawks get blown out? No, the only game that Seattle has been blown out in was the away trip to Steelerville, all their other games have been close. Their defense has improved and their offense is more efficient after the switch to pass.

Outcome: I hope Seahawks win this game, and it must be remembered that Favre will make mistakes by forcing throws when under pressure and the Hawks will bring pressure all day long. I think the handicap is fantastic value and will be betting on Hawks on moneyline. Seattle to win the game on a defensive interception of Favre in the 4th Quarter.

SEAHAWKS +8

[MAESFIELD]

I've got to go with Seattle +8 too which is a touch too high a line imo.

I don't believe Seattle will be blown away by any means.

Pundits confident of Favre being intercepted at some point during the game as his throw will be under severe pressure and he has abit of a rep of throwing interceptions.

[LLAAYYSS]

My betting preference in this game would be Total Green Bay Points of over 24.5 but its not an option so I wont vote.

Here is how I see the game. My punting for team games such as rugby, nfl where large points totals is to run stats through a calculator Ive created and used for a while, always stood me well, espectially on nfl.

My prediction for this game is around the GB 31 and SEA 13 so the handicap bet would be GB - 7.5, its not an option on here nor is team points total and with for me with no value in the others I wont vote to skew the results, let the true strong thoughts bets.

Good luck, here is to winning.