NFL Charity Challenge: Jacksonville @ New England

[Antony OLBG]

See this thread for the background
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic23_17842.html

Need to find one £100 bet to have on this match

Some of the possibles and indicative odds are:

Patriots ML @ 1.12
Jaguars ML @ 6.5
Jags + 12.5 @1.9
Pats -12.5 @1.9
Under 49.5 @1.9
Over 49.5 @1.9

Lets discuss and then maybe I can add a poll later in the week

[Antony OLBG]

If its snowy and cold then unders could be a good call here especially with the Jags running it a lot no doubt.

[dmachine83]

appairently no snow in Mass. up till game time. Game time should be freezing but dry with little wind. It seems like a game where the game clock will keep running a lot as brady completes a lot of passes and the jags run a lot. That would back up the chances of a lower scoring game.

[Inatimate1]

With the Pats throwing game I think that the wind strength is going to be the best determinant of whether or not to go for the unders/overs and handicap bets. I said in the other thread that the Patriots' loss of composure towards the end of the season was probably down to the "all eyes on them" mentality of the rest of the NFL world. At the start of the season they probably didn't think they would achieve the feat and were playing some fantastic Football. Now that they have gone and done the "impossible" I would be quite sure that they are now going to go into this game more relaxed, the hard part has been done and now they can probably go back to playing the way which they were playing. At the end of the day, on average they won all their games by just under 20pts, and scored 21 more touchdowns than the nearest total touchdown scorers in the Colts, a team I remember them being something like 2/1 to beat at the early stage, and they didn't exactly fold in that match. I firmly believe that they will cover the handicap should the weather suit them. Less wind is more favourable to a throwing team and more wind would probably favour a running team, and if there is expected to be little wind for the game is would believe that the Pats are going to be firmly on their game, and my early view is that the Pats -12.5 looks to be the bet for me, at home they only failed to beat the Eagles by a double figures margin, so surely this should be where the investment goes in my view...

Patriots -12.5pts @ 1.9
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[RussBradley2004]

surely the bet must be the JAGUARS +12.5

Look at the performance of a team that is very similar to the Jaguars, the Ravens and to a slightly lesser extent the Giants. Both held the Pats to 3 point wins following 4th Q NE comebacks, here are the similarities:

1. Effective Running game
Pats are not spring chickens and give up 4.5 yards per rush as McGahee identified. They will not control the Jags offensive line and Taylor & Jones Drew will continue to move the chains, control the clock even if the Pats drop a safety into the box

2. Stop the run
Do NOT give Pats another option, make them throw it in weather that is not hot and sunny with no wind and then suddenly the offensive juggernaut does not look so sleek and unstoppable, against the Jets in bad weather they did not look convincing, in Baltimore they struggled in high winds....you must stop Maloney. The Jags will certainly stuff the Pats running game, no doubt.

3. Pressure Brady
Philly did this very well where the weather was not quite such a factor, leading to many hurries and a couple of sacks. Brady needs to be hit, and the Jags have the potential to cause some pressure on Brady after a 6 sack performance vs Big Ben.

The real difference to all the "close games" the Pats have played is that they will come up against a very able QB in Garrard..they have a passing game and so if the Pats just stack up against the run then Jags will simply go to Williams & his co wideouts. Boller, Manning and Feeley all made mistakes in the 4th Q, but i just feel Garrard will take more care with the football and may be able to make plays with his legs.

VERDICT
Right, what is going to happen? Pats have won many close games as teams have burnt out in the 4th Q. There is no reason to think they will stroll this one due to the excellent Jags running game, high winds and cold in New England, no rushing game for NE, Garrard's effectiveness...i think the Jaguars will win and go on, at those odds i certainly will be having a bet. The handicap in my opinion is way to high, how can they win by that much in similar conditions to the Ravens game who lost 10 straight, against a much better team in red hot form?!!
No arguments for Pats cruising to a 14 point win has me convinced

[RussBradley2004]

ps im not sure about unders.....

simply because you know the Pats will score over 20 points and the Jags will probably be able to do the same due to their high power running game...
In my mind there will be 50-60 points in this one

[welshie1]

The big thing for the Patriots here is stopping Maurice Jones-Drew who was simply magnificent last week. But I do think that the Pats can do this and advance to the AFC Playoff final and do this in style.

Tom Brady has been superb this season and rightfully got MVP this week, so he will be coming in to this game on a high and confident. He has so many good receiving options and I think this is where the game will be won, Brady has so many options, Randy Moss as we all know is Top Dog but if he can get free then Brady can go to Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney, so many options. The Patriots do stop the run very well and average 98.2 rushing yards allowed per game this season and it's vital for them to stop Jones-Drew.

I say go for Patriots -12.5
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[Antony OLBG]

I disagree that the Patriots stop the run well. The reason the rushing yards allowed is low is because teams get down early and have to abandon their running game.

It comes down to how well Jags do against the Pats passing game. If the Pats get a quick lead then the Jags will need Garrard to start forcing things and thats not his game.

[Antony OLBG]

Ive added voting
Not sure we're in much agreement on this one!

[dmachine83]

the more the week goes on the more i like jacksonville and +13.5 is now avalable. i agree with antony about the pats run defence. personally i would not totally dismiss a shock result here and i see garrard moving the ball well here, this new england defence is not as good as the one he faced last week imo. the pats have only covered the spread once in the last 6 weeks

[johno]

Jags are ranked 2nd offensively on the RUSH and most likely will use Maurice Jones Drew even more to find vital yards up the cetnre...and i'm certainly hoping for a decent game and not a walkover like a few media types expect!
As for garrard not being great at forcing things, hmmm 4th down and 2 against steelers...they've got the players to hit big plays..just how often is the question.

as mention by most...no selections are jumping out, a shame we cant buy the point and push the jags to +14.

As of now, Jags +13 is the choice here

[Antony OLBG]

Can buy extra points if needed - odds are

JAX Jaguars +14.0 10/13
JAX Jaguars +14.5 5/7