NFL Charity Challenge: San Diego @ Indianapolis

Antony OLBG · Stallion Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 6188

See this thread for the background
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic23_17842.html

Need to find one £100 bet to have on this match

Some of the possibles and indicative odds are:

Colts ML @ 1.25
Chargers ML @ 4.2
Chargers + 8.5 @1.9
Colts -8.5 @1.9
Under 46.5 @1.9
Over 46.5 @1.9

Lets discuss and then maybe I can add a poll later in the week

Antony OLBG · Stallion Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 6188

I think the Colts are far superior to the Chargers
There are some huge differences

1. Colts have way more experience and confidence
2. Manning is sooo much better than Rivers
3. Adaii is probably in better form than LT this season
4. Both Ds look pretty good but Id say the Colts is slightly better.

Question marks about Gate & Harrison but either way with this being at Indi and off a bye week it does look very one sided.

I havent checked the records but I do feel the Colts are quite a poor team for covering - they win a lot but not always by a lot. Money line looks rock solid as a starting point.

dmachine83 · Group 1 Class Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 325

There is nothing i can really ad to what you have said here antony. If we want to go with the safe bet and for me still value the colts on the moneyline are a gift imo. I can see the arguments for both sides going over the handicap and steering clear of it,

any opinions on the points, im edging to unders at the moment, they have set it similar the the total from the previous encounter, i cant see the chargers scoring 23 again though. its dangerous to take anything from that game as will manning throw 6 picks again!

johno · Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject:

The Colts moneyline is certainly the gimme selection, because there is no way this lacklustre Chargers team can take it to Indy, and get the win straight up.
Manning and co have far too many positives going for them.

They dont need Marvin Harrison back (imo)
Kenton Keith and Joseph Adai are tearing up the stats. SD just have LT. Indy D, will handle him.
Dallas Clark is having another great season.

I can also give you the trends and stats that backup, the UNDER is a sound selection. I think the line is set high because its a trap for the public to get involved in a shoot-out game.. I dont think that will happen..

Thats why I'm warily also, about the -8.5, thats 3 FG's (Vinateri not the clutch king this year) or 1td and 1fg over SD...hmm at the price? not buying it

I do break it down to two selections, the Under and the Colts ML.. Colts Moneyline is by far the best no-brainer.. I'll be back with more thoughts and news as the info/training goes on today/tomorrow. Cheers Win

welshie1 · Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:24 am Post subject:

might be a bit of a black sheep here but I would back Chargers to win on the Money Line

The Colts always seem to struggle against the Chargers, they have won two in a row against them including a 23-21 victory this season. I think the Chargers have a good enough defense to keep Peyton Manning's rating down and also have a great CB in Antonio Cromartie who has set a club record for interceptions and also earned himself a place to the Pro Bowl, he is good enough to keep Reggie Wayne at bay. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has really come to form in their six game winning streak and he is in the form of his life, he has some good receivers in Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. Just one more big factor is LT this guy is the best RB in the NFL, he can run against any defense and this is a place where the Chargers can get a big advantage.
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Antony OLBG · Stallion Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 6188

Ive added voting
Other than Colts ML Im not sure weve identified much

dmachine83 · Group 1 Class Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 325

its a toss up for me between unders and colts money line. i really have a feeling that san diego will score not much more than 10 -14 points. im really happy with the moneyline and ill go with that as i believe its .05 to .1 overpriced

johno · Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject:

Looks like it needs to be Colts ML, the unders line is dropping all the time.

As for the chargers, winning earlier in the season.. it was down to the colts being banged up with injuries yet didnt make excuses and manning throwing an unprecented 6 interceptions.. so pie-in-the sky, a total one off... lol in the dome, chargers keeping up score with the colts in the 4th qtr...hmmm no !

colts all the way Win

johno · Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject:

Marvin Harrison will be playing Sunday Win

likin that news for the Colts and our olbg charity challenge (obviously) Cool

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Antony OLBG · Stallion Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 6188

Colts ML is a measily 1.18 now and the spread has moved to 10.5 too but looking at the adjusted handicaps Im not sure they are worth it

Colts-9.5 = 1.76
Colts-6.5 = 1.43
Colts-3.5 = 1.29

Nothing much appeals really
Can really change the bet this late but compared to the above Adaii Anytime TD @1.5 looks much better value. I find in the playoffs teams tend to try for rushing TDs a bit more as its slightly more conservative so it does seem likley to me that he'll get a lot of chances to run for TD if he stays healthy

I'll hold out in the hope of a wave of advice in the next few hours otherwise I'll stick with Colts ML for a small return

manafana · Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject:

Pity Abt you didnt take fridays Prices, mentioned my pts in other threads are you just going to one bookies? Boylesports still have -9.5 at 1.8

Cant see Chargers taking this and its just a question of how much colts score as colts defense with bob sanders is so underated.
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dmachine83 · Group 1 Class Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 325

oh that is a nice price for addai anytime and it could seem much better value than the shortening ml.
llaayyss colts over 27.5 offers value also considering they scored 21 with six picks away from home in the last encounter it looks great value it would edge it for me over your other choice as the colts spec team has had some problems hence gifting SD a few points is possible.

it could be a real advantage to change the bet now, i dont think anyone would have a problem with another choice


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