NFL Charity Challenge: San Diego @ New England

[Antony OLBG]

Here we go again

1. This time we are looking for TWO £100 bets - so probably the top 2 in the poll as long as they arent opposing bets

2. Probably a good idea to at least look into other markets though like rather than automaitically having our 2 bets from the main 3 markets.
- team totals
- TD scorers

Early market indicators
Patriots -14.5
U/O 49

[Antony OLBG]

My initial thoughts on this one is over 49 as the Patriots were capable of scoring on every play against the Jags yet werent so great on Defence.

On the handicap its hard to say. Pats could have beaten the JAGs by more than the spread but they didnt need to and ran the clock down instead. Thats always the worry when taking a team with a big negative handicap.

Things to watch
- weather
- SD injuries (Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates, Neal, Castillo)

[dmachine83]

im going to put down a few personal choice they are just and early preference:

San Deigo +14 @1.9 or
San Deigo +14.5 @ 1.83 - i like san deigo to keep it close to a certain extent and feel like last week the spread is to high its alredy come in from 14.5 to 13.5 in places and NE have now only covered the handicap in 1 of the last 7 weeks

First team to score SD @ 3 - i like this as any score for SD will do they will feel an opening score will be key to staying in contention

Team to score 1st loses the game @ 3.6 - like above can see SD scoring first if they get the ball as they will know a good start will be key to having any hope, hence even if they do score first they will most likely lose.

Longest field goal under 43.5 @ 1.9 (pending weather) not as strong as in green bay but may be worth while depending on weather

team to punt first SD @ 2.25 - must be a mistake on the website as there is no way NE can be favourite to punt first. dont know what the rules are on betting on mistakes. - as pointed out by boozeybegger this has now been rectified, pity

[Stephaniebot]

Can see the Patriots winning comfortably, but whether they worry about covering the spread is another thing.

No idea, but Patriots - Patriots double result looks a certainty.

Value for first touchdown, maybe Ben Watson? Or just anytime td at shorter price might be safer.
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[ManhattanCelt]

Normally I would go for San Diego with the 14.5 point spread but the are coming from a warm climate like San Diego and goin to Mass where it is freezing this time of year. Patriots to cover the spread

[BoozyBeggar]

I like what dmachine says about longest field goal under 43.5 at 1.9.

Kaeding has been woeful this postseason: scored a chip shot, failed from 45 and 48.

Gostkowski has a season best of 45, and missed from 41 in Week 2 vs the Chargers.

That game, in Week 2, featured just one successful field goal, a 24 yarder.

SD to punt first is now 1.55. Hope you got on at 2.25, dmachine.

[CYBERTIP]

We've seen teams so far in this post-season trying to run the ball and control the clock.SD will be trying to do the same thing in this one.
SD haven't allowed more than 24 points in the last 10 weeks...some crappy teams there, but Indi twice and Jax looks pretty good.
NE allows just 13.7 at home on the season! A cold, windy day forecast, with 20+ mph winds should mean even more balls on the ground.My selection is under

[Antony OLBG]

Im putting up the voting options now

For New England
- home field advantage
- Belichick / Brady experience
- Big Climate change for SD (hot to freezing)
- Huge Travel for SD - West to East & time zone change
- Missing players

For Chargers
- Chargers on a good streak
- Backups have looked decent (Volek, Turner, Sproles)
- NE Defence should let them get some points
- Chargers get a lot of Turnovers (they are +27 this season on turnovers compared to second best 18 which is the Patriots)
- Pats dont need to win by 14

I think the pointspread could go either way but if pushed Id be on the side of Chargers +14 as while the Patriots should be able to score on every possession I think the Chargers will score on most and I have a suspicion that a special teams play or a pick for the Chargers may keep them in it

[Taylormade]

Anytime scorer D Stallworth NE @ 9/4.
Most recieving yds Jennings GB @ 4/1.
NE to win by 7-12 pts @ 9/2.
Prices Bet365.

[BoozyBeggar]

[Taylormade]

"Freudian slip? Stallworth is of small worth? "

Ha ha ha, it could be, thanks for that.....Stallworth it is!

[dmachine83]

mmm time to look at the game a bit and vote, looks like we have come up with some nice options.

cant fail to be impressed by san deigo last week, ill be the first to admin i actually though indy would be in this game and would beat The pats in this game so while i feel SD have less chance of getting that win than the colts would have,they should be respected.
however without the doubts over rivers (looking like LT will be ok) i cant at the moment take SD even with 14.5.
It will be a suprise if the pats let the moss situation effect them but it is non the less a distraction.
hence im going to go with a fun bet that looks value. the FG bet- look at it this way, there are question marks over both kickers and that to the fact that its going to be cold and windy, it is unlikely in such conditions that a field goal of over 45 yards will even be attempted (depending on wind direction but such intense cold will take 5 yards off a normal kick)

pick Field Goal under 43.5 yards @1.9