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| Which is the best bet |
| SD +14 @ 10/11 |
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50% |
[ 14 ] |
| NE -14 @ 10/11 |
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14% |
[ 4 ] |
| SD to Score 1st @ 2/1 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
| Team to Score 1st Loses @ 13/5 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
| Longest FG Under 43.5 @ 10/11 |
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14% |
[ 4 ] |
| NE to win by 7-12 points @ 9/2 |
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10% |
[ 3 ] |
| Special Team or Def TD scored @ 27/20 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
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| Total Votes : 28 |
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| Author |
Message |
Kingsdyke35
Group 2 Class
Joined: 03 Jan 2006
Posts: 119
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 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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dmachine - you have convinced me with your field goal stats & logic.
Longest field goal under 43.5 - box ticked! |
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luisboagale1985
Classic Winner
Joined: 16 Oct 2006
Posts: 524
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 12:28 am Post subject: |
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Wouldnt it be a shame if the Patriots were to fall now...but surely not!!
Fair play to the Chargers last week though,with Rivers and Tomlinson both getting injured it was a terrific effort,especially defensively at the end....
This though I believe is one hurdle too far and the Patriots should win...
The 2 bets i like personally are:
1st team to score loses....It is very common for the away team to win the toss and get possesion 1st and with the Patriots shaky starts in recent weeks this could easily allow the Chargers to score 1st...
The other 1 is for the Pats to win by 6-12 points...This seems about right with the price...and i can see the Pats conceeding but they always seem to win narrowly,definatly towards the end of the season...This bet gets my vote just...
Pats by 6-12 points
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dmachine83
Group 2 Class
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 223
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: |
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lets hope its a winner kings 
couple more stats to back it up
gostkowski only made 3 over 40 yards this season and is 60%
keading is 8/10 over 40 but has missed 2 from 2 in post season on top of that - chances are a few of them are from between 40 & 43 yards, i cant find that stat
i think the correct price should be @1.6 to 1.65 |
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Antony OLBG
Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5514
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: |
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Im still leaving the vote open but Im worried the FG bet odds may shorten so Ive picked that as one of our two £100 bets. Looks likley to be one of the top 2 picks for this game come Sunday anyway and certainly is a well reasoned tip which most people seem to like.
Also it will make FGs much more interesting!
So Bet1 on this game is £100 Longest FG <43.5 @ 10/11
Second bet looking like being Chargers+14 but I'll wait on that |
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Taylormade
Listed Class
Joined: 03 Oct 2007
Posts: 28
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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SD are falling apart at the wrong time, or is Turner messing with NE? If Rivers does not last the game, or is not able to partake, then SD are relying on a running game to a greater extent than previously thought!
Wooooooo, i can hear the bookies adjusting the spreads and prices already! |
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johno
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 1026
Location: on OLBG somewhere
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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Seeing Bet 1 is the FG...
take the Chargers aswell now, 14 points... SD unlikely to win yet likely to keep it close (14pts close)
Looking forward to seeing that smirk whiped off Rivers face by that Pats tho  (lol impartial I know)
Chargers +14
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LLAAYYSS
Group 1 Class
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Joined: 19 Jul 2007
Posts: 481
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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NE -14 for me. Will be no taking the foot of the peddle here. Rivers I think is really going to come back down to earth with a bang here with Brady showing the way spreading the passes all around his offence.
If Rivers gets hit a few times I can see him struggling and not making it back on the field, once that happens SD wont score many.
Home field advantage is massive here and just cant see anythign other than NE having a field day.
Points prediction for me is NE 36, SD 12. Willing to give a bit of give both way so -14 still value for me.
Good luck all |
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lee cufc
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 05 Jul 2005
Posts: 1358
Location: cambridge
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| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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san diego +14 here, i think the pats will win but i can't see covering spread as i think they will only do enough to keep players fresh and injury free for the final 
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Antony OLBG
Stallion
Read My Blog!
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5514
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| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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Second bet is SD+14 @ 10/11
Good luck! |
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mattieuk
2yo
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 6
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:42 pm Post subject: |
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Two winners with the chosen bets here I think, it should be close, and with the Pats treating teams with more respect than their hail marys on 4th and 10 and making it, I think SD with a +14 could well be a winner (Gostkowski doesn't have masses to do with the TD-happy NE offence, and only has 5 40+ yard FGs all season, so its really only Kaeding to worry about there).
As for playing time, I'll be shocked if Rivers and Gates don't play. It's the conference game vs the Pats to go to the Superbowl...there is clearly not a worrying huge injury problem here, and I think we'll see both starting. |
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BoozyBeggar
Group 2 Class
Joined: 17 Nov 2007
Posts: 184
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Nick Halling just said wind speeds of 20-25. at Foxborough. Has to be good for the field goal bet, and should prevent Brady running up the score if they get ahead. Both bets look good. |
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Antony OLBG
Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5514
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
San Deigo +14 @1.9 or
San Deigo +14.5 @ 1.83 - i like san deigo to keep it close to a certain extent and feel like last week the spread is to high its alredy come in from 14.5 to 13.5 in places and NE have now only covered the handicap in 1 of the last 7 weeks
First team to score SD @ 3 - i like this as any score for SD will do they will feel an opening score will be key to staying in contention
Team to score 1st loses the game @ 3.6 - like above can see SD scoring first if they get the ball as they will know a good start will be key to having any hope, hence even if they do score first they will most likely lose.
Longest field goal under 43.5 @ 1.9 (pending weather) not as strong as in green bay but may be worth while depending on weather
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Nice calls dmachine83 - all looking good right now! |
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