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| Whats the Best Superbowl Bet |
| Giants +11.5 @ 10/11 |
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19% |
[ 6 ] |
| Pats -11.5 @ 10/11 |
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19% |
[ 6 ] |
| Giants +14 @ 5/8 |
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9% |
[ 3 ] |
| Giants ML @4/1 |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| Pats ML @ 1/5 |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| Under 54 @ 10/11 |
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25% |
[ 8 ] |
| Over 54 @ 10/11 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
| Giants to Score 1st @ 17/10 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
| Pats Win by 1-6 @ 5/1 |
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6% |
[ 2 ] |
| Team Scoring 1st Loses @ 19/10 |
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6% |
[ 2 ] |
| Pats to Score longest TD @ 10/17 |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| Maroney MVP @ 12/1 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
| Ahmed Bradshaw Anytine TD @ 11/5 |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
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| Total Votes : 31 |
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Antony OLBG Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5502
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Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:50 am Post subject: NFL Charity Challenge: New York Giants v New England |
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Giants v Patriots - Superbowl
Being played in Arizona on 3 Feb so we have two weeks for this and there are 2 weeks for the spreads to change too so we may want to get one bet on early depending on how discussions go
We have 2 £100 bets on the game to discuss
Initial spreads are
Giants +12.5
U/O 53.5
Last edited by Antony OLBG on Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:27 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Antony OLBG Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5502
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Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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Team to score 1st Loses @ 3.1
Discussed before - 1st score not necessarily that significant especially given it could be a FG + the total points forecast is high.
Stats have been that this should be odds on which obviously is illogical but backs up the notion that substantially better than evens is good value
Id say 6/4 is fair price so 21/10 is big |
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Kingsdyke35 Group 2 Class
Joined: 03 Jan 2006 Posts: 117
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Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:17 am Post subject: |
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Ant - the current 9/2 with Bet365 for the highest scoring quarter as the third quarter looks massive. Grab it while you can.
It's effectively 9/2 for a 3/1 shot.
In the giants last match vs the packers , it was the highest quarter.
In 3 out of the last 9 superbowls, it was the highest quarter.
Most other bookies are going 100/30 or 7/2.
Last edited by Kingsdyke35 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:30 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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candyman Listed Class
Joined: 16 Sep 2007 Posts: 48
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Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: |
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Giants +13 points 4/5@Coral
This looks a great bet to me. |
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Antony OLBG Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5502
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Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Anyone got any reasons for their recommendations ? |
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manafana At Stud
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Joined: 09 Apr 2005 Posts: 3516 Location: Galway, Ireland
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Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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Just looking threw some markets
Pats to score longest td looks interesting at 8/15: seems poor price but eli's game has been short safe passes to get new downs while brady has thrown long when possibl.
Giants to call first coachs challenge 5/6 pats are less likely to have something to challenge with giants palying more conserative game, while the pats will be throwing some wide receptions on the lines.
Pats to commit first penalty @1.85 giants look pretty discplined while the pats lines can step out of line at times. _________________ Check out my new horse alerts blog,, http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/topic31_15074.html |
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BoozyBeggar Group 2 Class
Joined: 17 Nov 2007 Posts: 184
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Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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Antony said:
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Team to score 1st Loses @ 3.1
Id say 6/4 is fair price so 21/10 is big |
Teams scoring first so far this playoffs are 3-7.
The Pats have conceded the first score in both games.
I agree: 3.1 is huge.
candyman said:
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| Giants +13 points 4/5@Coral |
I'm not saying I agree with this bet, but - the Pats are currently the number one dynasty in professional sport, on the back of three Superbowl wins this century. By 3, 3 and 3. |
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dmachine83 Group 2 Class
Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 223
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Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 1:34 am Post subject: |
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giants +12 @ 1.90 - you cant not be impressed with the giants in the last few weeks, i think they have a real shot of keeping this close. i could never bet on them winning but 12 points is big and i believe the pats have now only covered 1 of the last 8 weeks.
nothing really sticks out for me that has not been mentioned -
ants selection is spot on @ 3.1 - i think that will end up a choice.
kings call would be the other choice i like - i wouldnt say all quarters are 3/1 because of circustances, time outs etc, but anything more than 4/1 for me would be of value |
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Antony OLBG Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5502
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Posted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:13 am Post subject: |
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Im not sure I like the 3rd Quarter highest bet.
All Quarters definitely arent equal so to say its a 3/1 shot is not right in my opinion
Q1 - team more nervous - potentially low scoring
Q2 - timeouts + 2min warning + teams specifically going for a score at the end of the half
Q3 - teams have adjusted their tactics but what this means for the scoring Im not sure
Q4 - depends on the game and the score. Again there is "more time" with 2 min warning and time outs. One team is despertae to score and one is trying to run the clock down. If the team desperate to score is moving the ball well and the team trying to run the clock down isnt then this can be very high scoring. Conversely in the reverse situation it can be fairly low scoring (although obviously it gets to a TD or Interception type stage eventually which can mean more points)
So my market would be along the lines of
Q1 15% = 6.5
Q2 30% = 3.3
Q3 20% = 5
Q4 35% = 2.8 |
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LLAAYYSS Group 1 Class
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Joined: 19 Jul 2007 Posts: 481
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Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| When are you placing the bet Ant ? Ive not looked at this game yet as waiting until nearer the time to see what odds are value. |
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Antony OLBG Stallion
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Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5502
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Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Friday or Saturday probably |
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BoozyBeggar Group 2 Class
Joined: 17 Nov 2007 Posts: 184
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Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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I read somewhere that, for the average NFL game, highest scoring quarter will be (percentage by quarter):
12 / 40 / 15 / 33
It's not hard to see why the fourth quarter of the Superbowl might be more than 33% - you're not going to rest starters when you're up by 14, just to avoid injuries.
9/2 the third quarter looked good to me straight off. But these stats (if they're accurate, and I don't vouch for them) say otherwise. |
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