NFL Charity Challenge: New York Giants v New England

[Antony OLBG]

Giants v Patriots - Superbowl
Being played in Arizona on 3 Feb so we have two weeks for this and there are 2 weeks for the spreads to change too so we may want to get one bet on early depending on how discussions go

We have 2 £100 bets on the game to discuss

Initial spreads are
Giants +12.5
U/O 53.5

[Antony OLBG]

Team to score 1st Loses @ 3.1
Discussed before - 1st score not necessarily that significant especially given it could be a FG + the total points forecast is high.
Stats have been that this should be odds on which obviously is illogical but backs up the notion that substantially better than evens is good value
Id say 6/4 is fair price so 21/10 is big

[Kingsdyke35]

Ant - the current 9/2 with Bet365 for the highest scoring quarter as the third quarter looks massive. Grab it while you can.

It's effectively 9/2 for a 3/1 shot.

In the giants last match vs the packers , it was the highest quarter.

In 3 out of the last 9 superbowls, it was the highest quarter.

Most other bookies are going 100/30 or 7/2.

[candyman]

Giants +13 points 4/5@Coral

This looks a great bet to me.

[Antony OLBG]

Anyone got any reasons for their recommendations ?

[manafana]

Just looking threw some markets

Pats to score longest td looks interesting at 8/15: seems poor price but eli's game has been short safe passes to get new downs while brady has thrown long when possibl.

Giants to call first coachs challenge 5/6 pats are less likely to have something to challenge with giants palying more conserative game, while the pats will be throwing some wide receptions on the lines.

Pats to commit first penalty @1.85 giants look pretty discplined while the pats lines can step out of line at times.
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[BoozyBeggar]

Antony said:

[dmachine83]

giants +12 @ 1.90 - you cant not be impressed with the giants in the last few weeks, i think they have a real shot of keeping this close. i could never bet on them winning but 12 points is big and i believe the pats have now only covered 1 of the last 8 weeks.

nothing really sticks out for me that has not been mentioned -

ants selection is spot on @ 3.1 - i think that will end up a choice.

kings call would be the other choice i like - i wouldnt say all quarters are 3/1 because of circustances, time outs etc, but anything more than 4/1 for me would be of value

[Antony OLBG]

Im not sure I like the 3rd Quarter highest bet.
All Quarters definitely arent equal so to say its a 3/1 shot is not right in my opinion

Q1 - team more nervous - potentially low scoring
Q2 - timeouts + 2min warning + teams specifically going for a score at the end of the half
Q3 - teams have adjusted their tactics but what this means for the scoring Im not sure
Q4 - depends on the game and the score. Again there is "more time" with 2 min warning and time outs. One team is despertae to score and one is trying to run the clock down. If the team desperate to score is moving the ball well and the team trying to run the clock down isnt then this can be very high scoring. Conversely in the reverse situation it can be fairly low scoring (although obviously it gets to a TD or Interception type stage eventually which can mean more points)

So my market would be along the lines of

Q1 15% = 6.5
Q2 30% = 3.3
Q3 20% = 5
Q4 35% = 2.8

[LLAAYYSS]

When are you placing the bet Ant ? Ive not looked at this game yet as waiting until nearer the time to see what odds are value.

[Antony OLBG]

Friday or Saturday probably

[BoozyBeggar]

I read somewhere that, for the average NFL game, highest scoring quarter will be (percentage by quarter):

12 / 40 / 15 / 33

It's not hard to see why the fourth quarter of the Superbowl might be more than 33% - you're not going to rest starters when you're up by 14, just to avoid injuries.

9/2 the third quarter looked good to me straight off. But these stats (if they're accurate, and I don't vouch for them) say otherwise.