next seasons super bowl prices....don't get it

redbarron99 · Group 2 Class Joined: 01 May 2007 Posts: 205

just been taking a very early look at next years super bowl prices and i just don't get it. the bookies have new england at a piffling 5/2, while they make the san diego chargers a generous 10/1.

don't get me wrong, i'm a patriots fan and fully appreciate their strengths. but at the end of the day they lost the super bowl (luckily hedged my super bowl bet, couldn't resist the 4/1 being given on the giants) and have a glaring weakness in the secondary which they must address going forward. ellis hobbs at cornerback is a liability and needs changing, while asante samuel looks as though he could be moving on to make his fortune. on top of that, there is talk that rodney harrison at safety is set to retire.

although as aforementioned i'm a patriots fan, i thought the chargers were extremely unlucky to lose to the patriots in the play-offs, with the backbone of their team (philip rivers, la dainian thomlinson and antonio gates all banged up) if LT had been fit i think the patriots would have lost, the star running back converting at least a couple of the many opportunities the chargers had.

so, don't get the disparity in prices and will be taking the 10/1 on the chargers, while looking for opportunities to wager the patriots later on. like last season i fancy these two teams to go very close.

gingerzola · Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject:

The Patriots are very short compared to other fancied teams, with the Cowboys at 10s as well as the Chargers. The Patriots have lost a couple of players in the off season, but have kept Moss so will still be up there, but the odds are too short.

I've gone with the Cowboys in the hope that they can upgrade Reeves at CB, either thru Pacman Jones signing from the Titans or with one of the 2 1st round picks. Add a RB to compliment Barber and a WR to play opposite Owens (hopefully Chad Johnson) and 10/1 looks good value.

Antony OLBG · Stallion Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5969

I think its very dangerous to reply on RBs to hold their form from season to season. LT was not as good last season as the one before, Alexander too had a few good seasons and then lost his edge.

Its such a demanding and physical position its hard for any player to produce at a high level for more than 2-3 seasons.

Some do keep going for many seasons though (Tiki Barber was one), but the signs with LT is that hes going the way of Alexander and going from a match winner to a reasonable but not spectacular RB

johno · Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 3:29 pm Post subject:

So true.. another 1 being Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks.. Awesome years in 2004 and 2005.. and now after two really poor years (1 madden curse, yet injuries lol) it looks like he's going to be dropped totally.

Bring on the summer..we need the games back! Win

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manafana · Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 5:08 pm Post subject:

Cowboys still havnt won a play-off game in 10years, and the real value lies in not backing a team that was therebouts last season, but a team that didnt make the play-offs.
Rams are such a team - They actually look like they have strong enough first string and if bulger and jackson finished season fit after set backs and he looks a top player.
Also look to the eagles who are building and gave patriots a cracking game last season
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gingerzola · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject:

The fact the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game for so long really does hurt and i'm sure they'll be pulling out all the stops to right that wrong. If Dallas can sign Pacman Jones cheap and keep him out of trouble...BIG if!), it allows them to go after a RB with the first pick, possibly trading both first rounders to move up for Darren McFadden, though there are a LOT of classy RBs in this years draft.

A longer price team that could go well this year is the Cleveland Browns. Everyone expected them to stink last season, but behind the arm of Derek Anderson, they really showed that they can be a match for most. Add players like Kellen Winslow, Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis to the mix and they've got a decent team, which was boosted further by free agent signings Donte Stallworth (from Patriots) Shaun Rogers (Lions) and Corey Williams (Packers).

The Browns are currently 36s on Betfair

RussBradley2004 · Group 1 Class Joined: 27 Mar 2005 Posts: 373

I think any money punted on the Browns is throwing it away. They had a brilliant season last year but still failed to make the playoffs despite breakout years for Edwards and Andersen. The wheels came off a bit last year as teams got used to the offensive style of football Cleveland play. Also, they have a tough division to even get into the playoffs with the Ravens hoping to finally have some offense through the air to help Mcgahee, the Steelers will be solid (esp. at home) and the Bengals looking slightly more settled this year.

However, the Patriots are appaling value, but at least you can bank on them winning their division!I must admit i like the Colts with all the main pieces of the puzzle still there and with a fit Marvin they must go close. Something about Romo just doesn't inspire me to think the Cowboys will win it all this year, but they have the all round talent to seriously challenge.

For an outsiders pick, i really like the Vikings. We know whats good and bad about this team. They run well and stop the run. However they couldn't pass or stop the pass last year. Well to hopefully address these problems they have drafted in Bernard Berrien (and expect J Booty to start ahead of TJ), also the acquisition of Jared Allen is going to mean a much more potent pass rush.

NFC is between Dallas and Minnesota i think with Green Bay just falling a little short (with the Eagles not far behind)

AFC is the usual suspects but i expect San Diego, Indy to be the best 2 in the division

I cant wait for the season to get going Very Happy

elway7uk · 2yo Joined: 20 Oct 2007 Posts: 1

The biggest mistake people make when trying to predict next years outcome is to judge teams based on off-season transactions, and purely on players.
Fact is, every single team in history to ever win the Superbowl has had a super intelligent disciplinarian head coach, and I just cant see Norv Turner keeping that team together much longer - the more Schottenheimer becomes a distant memory, the less disciplined the team will become.
Last year was their chance - still the team that Marty built with Norv's offensive flair thrown in. I see the Broncos clawing their way back to rival SD in that division real soon.
Teams to seriously look at are from the south - Colts, Jags, Titans, Saints, oh and ive just taken a 94/1 bet on Buffalo and 11/1 to win AFC East on Betfair. I dont think they'll win but should be good to trade back at much lower odds when they close the gap to NE.

markpetts · 2yo Joined: 19 Apr 2008 Posts: 4

The Vikings look like the value pick for me, but then again it is hardly an original point. They are sure to be backed in pre-season.