NFL Week 5

[welshie1]

I'll kick us off for this week

Miami Dolphins to beat San Diego Chargers @ 3.4

The Miami Dolphins were fantastic in week three as they beat New England 38-13 in Foxborough, they are coming off a bye week and will be up for this exciting clash against the San Diego Chargers. The Dolphins will have been boosted by that win and having a bye week last week will have helped them heading in this one. Their rush attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams came alive in that win two weeks ago and they will be dangerous tonight. The Dolphins have a very aggresive defense and they will put Phillip Rivers under a lot of pressure, Joey Porter looks in great form for the Dolphins and their 3-4 defense has worked well this season. The Chargers are struggling on defense, they have the leagues worst pass defense and they could struggle against Chad Pennington who has started well at QB for the Dolphins this season. Miami have won six straight against San Diego and Chad Pennington is 3-0 against them as starter, Dolphins have a good chance at a nice price.

Tennesse Titans to beat Baltimore Ravens @ 1.77

This match is being billed as a battle between two of the best defenses in the NFL and its going to be a close game, but in my opinion Tennesse have the better offense and should go 5-0. The Titans have a very good experienced QB in Kerry Collins, he has steadied the ship and they look like a very good football team. They have a good running game with both Chris Johnson and LenDale White, while they also have three good receiving options in Justin McCareins, Bo Scaife and Justin Gage. Baltimore lack the options that Tennesse have, they start with a young QB in Joe Flacco and other than Derrick Mason their receiving options are pretty limited. Its going to be tough for Baltimore to get their passing game going, the Titans have a great secondary that have recorded at least one interception in every game this season. The Ravens currently rank No. 1 in the league in total defense, allowing 186.7 yards a game, while the Titans sit at No. 5 (263.5 yards per game). The Ravens and Titans rank No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in total points allowed with 43 and 46, but I think the Titans have more options on offense and will continue their unbeaten start.

Chicago Bears -3.5 v Detroit Lions @ 2.04

Chicago are coming off a very good win over Philadelphia last week and I expect them to build on that win against the 0-3 Lions. The Bears are a tough side to play against and they are very aggresive on defense and will put a lot of pressure on a struggling Detriot team. Bears QB Kyle Orton likes playing the Lions, hes won 13 of his past 18 starts, is 2-0 against the Lions, and two of his three highest passer ratings have been against Detroit. The Lions are struggling, Jon Kitna has looked poor throwing five interceptions this season and his usual top receiver Roy Williams is struggling. They have a good WR in Calvin Johnson but their defense is just not good enough and Orton should have another good day against them.

Seattle Seahawks +7.0 v New York Giants @ 1.91

Seattle have started the season 1-2 but they will have been boosted by their win in week three against the St Louis Rams and will come in to this game confident of giving the world champs a game. Seattle have missed most of their receiving threats this season, but both Deion Branch and Bobby Engram have good chances of returning today and that will boost them a lot. Seattle will need a good running game and in Julius Jones they have an in form RB, he has had two straight 100 yard rushing games and will pose a threat to the Giants. New York have made a good start to the season but they are in a division where all four teams slip up once in a while, the Cowboys and Eagles did so last week and the NYGs could tonight. They are without Plaxico Burress who will be a huge loss for them and that takes a lot out of their offense. This one will be tighter than expected and with the Seahawks having beaten New York the last two times theyve met, I fancy them on the spread.

Denver Broncos to beat Tampa Bay Bucs @ 1.57

The Denver Broncos offense has been fantastic this year, their offensive line is giving great protection to Jay Cutler, the QB is throwing well and the likes of Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall are having big receiving days. They were very poor last week on defenseagainst the Chiefs as they surprisingly lost, but they will have got their act together tonight and will be confident at hone. Tampa Bay played well last week on defense but I dont think they have as many option going forward as the Broncos do. Brian Griese has been prone to interceptions recently and other than their running game they are struggling on offense. Denver have won five straight home matches dating back to last season and Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden is 1-8 against the Broncos. Denver look a fantastic team on offense and im sure they will have had a good rollicking this week to make sure they tighten up on defense, thats why I say back them.
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[RickJ]

We split on our two ncaa fb plays on sat with Virginia winning the game but nebraska getting trounced.

Today 2 plays in the nfl

Houston +3.5
Tampa Bay +3.5

I am now 9-11 in the Hilton contest:(

My plays this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Tampa Bay +3
Houston +3
Minn +3
Baltimore +3
Arizona -1

Good Luck

RickJ
RickJshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Record to date:

NFL 08-09

Sides: 1-2 -1.10

Ncaa fb 08-09 Season

Sides 7-3 +3.85
Total

Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

MLB (08 season)
Sides: 28-41 -4.69
Total: 2-1-1 +0.90

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-94 +2.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

NFL (07-08)completed
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

NBA 07-08
Sides 11-14 -3.60
Total 6-8 -2.35

Nba 06-07 completed
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 4-12 -6.75
totals:



nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10


Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 12 bets -3.60
Feb 08 5 bet +0.80
Mar 08 17 bets -5.10
April 08 12 bets +5.91
May 08 9 bets +2.33
June 08 11 bet +1.08
july 08 19 bets -5.22
Aug 08 20 bet -5.88
Sept 08 14 bet -0.25
Oct 08 2 bets -.05
Year 3 2 bets -.05
Year2 206 bets +8.06 +4.79%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70 units +6.91%
Total: 943 bets +58.71 +6.51%

[SmoggyFever]

i think the dolphins, havin shocked ne pats will not follow that up against another very strong team, yes they are home but i feel san diego will will comfortably and bring the fins back down to earth

my other pick is chicago, a more inconsistant team but detroit leak points all over the field and chicago should also win by a fair few points.

in an acca on the points spread im goin with :

NE pats
buffalo
indy colts
carolina
seattle
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[Antony OLBG]

I like the Bears at the Lions. Bears have had a tough schedule but look a decent team. Offence is better than it was and Defence is as good as ever. Lions in a total mess with super leaky Defence.

Not confident on the Fins, nor the Seahawks who are horrible on the road, especially when its the opposite coast, and the Giants have been very good so far this season. Also think the Bucs v Broncos could go either way - both teams have looked useful.

I think the Packers should be much too strong for the Falcons (2 home wins against the Lions and Cheifs is not worth much) and am surprised by the low handicap at 3.5 when I had it at about 8.

Chicago -3.5 @ 2.16 Betfair is my main bet this week

[SmoggyFever]

totally agree with you tony, lets hope for the best
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[Kingsdyke35]

The usual three for me.

Houston +3.5 you guessed it they lost by 4 when well ahead!

The glory days are over at Indy. They just don't seem to be able to stop the run.

New York Giants - 6.5

The Seahawks are always a far weaker team when on their travels.

Tennessee minus 2.5

The Titans must be on a massive high with their best chance for years to take the AFC South and stand 4-0-0


I am really amazed by how close they calculate the spreads.

[candyman]

Titans v Ravens Over 33.5 points @43/50

Titans average points scored = 25.5 and conceded = 11.5

Ravens average points scored = 21.66 and conceded = 14.33

I think it will be close but I fancy the overs here. I especially fancy the Titans to get at least 20 points. The Ravens have not played anybody in the same class as the Titans yet either.

[candyman]

Never again will I bet on overs on an American Football game. I have never had much success with it and have much more luck with the points spread betting on American Football.

For some reason I chose to ignore my original pick of Bengals +16 and go for the overs in the Titans v Ravens game instead.

A valuable lesson learned.

P.S. 4/5 nice tipping Welshie