Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 5:49 pm Post subject: NFL Playoffs: Wildcard Weekend
These games look tricky to me, what are other peoples leans/ early thoughts??
Four home underdogs?? Gotta be some slight upsets here. Sure a lot of bettors will be keen on Philly -3 at Minnesota particularly after that thrashing of Dallas but it looks a bit trappy to me; Philly on the road? They just don't get it done when travelling. Don't think I want to bet big on that.
Can a rookie QB lead Atlanta to a road playoff win against a team that can smoke almost any D in the league?
Might bet the under in the Baltimore/Miami game; it's low, 37.5 I think but both these teams can be tough defensively.
The one I do quite like is the Colts -1 but I take it easy when backing the team I follow. Although certainly feel that the Chargers are getting overhyped and if the Colts are fit and the offensive is firing I will not put my money against Payton and his boys.
I Have Not been following the football at all this season but the team
I have supported all my life is in the playoffs. They made history and i
do not think a team will be as good in my lifetime. They are joint 2nd
Fav to Win the Super Bowl depending on which bookie you bet. I look
forward to the early morning viewing I always do no matter who is in
the Super Bowl Sunday Feb 1, 2009. My team The Pittsburg Steelers !
4 Time Super Bowl Champions .......
Not going to put any money yet, i'm going to wait til the weekend but starting to like the Indianapolis Colts more. Here is what I am thinking on the game.
When I talk to people about this game or read anything about it the first thing people say is how hot San Diego is. This is getting a little annoying for me as they really aren't that hot and if one team is 'hot' then surely the Colts 9 wins in a row is more impressive than the Chargers 4!? These four wins have been against Denver, Kansas (by 1), Tampa Bay (OK might sound good for a road win but TB lost at home to Oakland when the chips were down) and Oakland. That doesn't count as a quality hot streak to me, their entire season has consisted of maybe one quality win whilst the Colts have 5 or 6 quality wins I would say. Speaking of being hot Manning has been on fire in December 8 TDs and 0 interceptions with a passer rating of just under one hundred. SD's pass defense is ranked 31st in the league and it certainly looks like Manning will be able to pick apart their D. In their regular season game last season the Chargers picked off Manning 6 times but this facet of their game has not been so effective this season, Cromartie, Jammer and Cason have only 6 interceptions between them this entire season. I can't see the Chargers getting much pressure on Manning either, he's only been sacked 14 times this season and without Merriman San Diego's pass rush is going to be limited.
OK so the Chargers have home field advantage but this has not proved so beneficial in the past for wildcard games. So what else do San Diego have in their favour bar home field? They play Indy well, they've won 3 out of the last 4 but I don't rate this as a huge factor just as i'm not really counting the revenge factor for Indy from last seasons playoff loss to SD. What else? LT can be devastating when fully fit but he hasn't been this season and there are reports that he has a groin strain to add to his toe injury. A toe injury sounds like a sissy excuse but for a running back who twists and turns, making cuts like LT does then it can be crucial. That said he definitely strikes me as a prima donna. Some RBs can play well with an injury, they just grind it out, Tomlinson does not; he is not a tough running, solid back. So if Indy can shut out LT or just keep him under 100 yards rushing for the game then they will obviously have to use Rivers to throw the ball and Indy are surprisingly good against the throw. They have only allowed 6 passing TDs all season, that's half of the defensive stalwart of Pittsburgh. They also defend the deep ball well which is how SD like to play the throw when they have to.
Coaching? Give me Dungy over Turner any day. Norv Turner has a poor post season record and hasn't really won the big game(s) whilst Tony Dungy has a solid post season record with a super bowl ring in that. The man knows American football.
So I really don't see the Chargers having that many solid advantages, particularly in individual match-ups. The bookies have consistently rated San Diego this season giving them surprising credit when handicapping the spread and they have done so again in this match-up. They no doubt have talent on their roster but they certainly have not shown it. It looks like a Colts win to me.
Joined: 04 Jun 2008 Posts: 1183 Location: Aberdeen and Boro
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:51 pm Post subject:
cracking write up, i'd also side with the colts for all the reasons u've stated, the colts dont run, the chargers cant defend the pass, manning may put up some massive numbers on sunday, i'm really excited about this game actually, manning will win this single handedly. Added to that, i see rivers getting rushed into bad decisions and throwing picks. final score will be 34-24 colts _________________ Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there
right, i am actually v confident on 3 of these 4 games:
1. PHILADELPHIA to beat MINNESOTA
Nice odds on this one, McNabb in a dome fills me with confidence and Eagles Defense can stop AP and Chester to make this a game decided in the air
I might take Eagles -2.5 on adjustable spread. Love this bet
2. ARIZONA to beat Atlanta
This one might cause some muttering on the forum but i believe the Cardinals, at home, can beat the Falcons. Firstly, the home form of Ari is great as they dont turn the ball over and secondly, the road form of Falcons is not amazing. I think Warner has a field day passing and Arizona can limit Turner enough to put it on the rookie. I think 2 INTs for the young man mean Arizona clinch the playoff win
3. BALTIMORE beat MIAMI
Reasoning? look at the film from their regular season match up. Summized, Ravens D is waaay too strong for Wildcat happy Dolphins and Flacco does enough to get the win
So the game im not sure about.....INDY @ SAN DIEGO
Now before you all shout that Indy must be the shout since San Diego have huge weaknesses i think this has to be put in context. They are at home. At home, they have been competitive all year (look at their losses at home, last second to Pantheres, last second FG by Vinatieri...). If weather is good, Rivers can throw the ball well, if this happens, Chargers put up big points. Secondly Colts keep winning BUT not impressively, I'm not convince of their defense at all.
So that one will be high scoring with San Diego scraping the win i think, but not betting big stakes on that
so my picks:
BALTIMORE
ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO
PHILADELPHIA
Cheers smoggy. I actually agree with your pick of Arizona Russ, still undecided about Sundays games though. Will post something later. Best of luck with your bets.
Are there any other bookies that let you play around with the handicap and match totals? I use Bet365 but was wondering if any others do it. I really like this teaser- Arizona +9.5, Miami under 44.5 and Colts +6 it pays 13/10 but I want to give up a bit and get the Colts +7.5 however Bet365's alternative spreads don't stretch that far.
Russ are you not worried about whom San Diego have actually played?? They haven't really proved anything to me this season, they haven't actually beaten any playoff team and their 5-3 home record isn't great really. Add to that Indy's road record of 6-2 and that San Diego might have kept a few games close but they lost most of these whilst Indy has had something extra that have won them their close games.
Passing games? I'll back Manning and the Colts over Rivers and the Chargers any day. If the Chargers are going to exploit the Colt's D then their weakness is in defending the run, don't you think that'll be their focus rather than trying to take shots at a solid pass D?
Gates and LT have both missed the second practice session as well; i'm sure they'll play but how fit and sharp they will be is different.
Joined: 04 Jun 2008 Posts: 1183 Location: Aberdeen and Boro
Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 7:32 pm Post subject:
i tell you what guys, i'm liking Arizona, philly and baltimore a lot now. Out of san diego and indy i think the best play is under 50. I had previously sided with indy but and now changing the pick to san diego. I dont like this game one bit for punters, it will be a neutrals favourite tho on tv. No bet at all on this point spread.
Baltimore because i see miami scoring no more than 17
Arizona because i see ryan slipping up on the big occasion, stop turner and stop them scoring 30+. Arizona shud get sum big numbers on the board.
The vikings/eagles game is interesting because eagles are 3 rd rushing defense, vikings are 1st. vikings are 3rd best rushing offense and philly are 5th in total offense. Could be a tasty game indeed.
i think it will come down to the quality of mcnabb. if he is on fire they win. philly shud win but it will be tight, maybe 27-20 probably another no bet
_________________ Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there
Ok, well it seems my 'words of wisdom' have had some effect on you smoggy lol, its good that we agree on a few things
the more i think about it, the more i like the 2 bets of PHILLY -2.5 & BALTIMORE -2.5
those are the two im most confident about, then comes this weird game to predict in Arizona. I think Atlanta are over-rated especially as a road team, the question for me in this game is can Turner run effectively enough to mean Arizona have to stack the box and give Ryan plenty of one and one looks. To be honest, im not sure Falcons can do it. I envisage Fitzy and Anquan having a big day as Warner drops back and passes 35 times.If Arizona get out in front, can Ryan lead a big playoff comeback win? my answer is NO. Inexperienced rookie i feel will not deliver on the road, if he was in the dome he might have had a better chance but i still feel the Cardinals will play intense football and do enough to get the win in the desert.
ARIZONA WIN
last game, Indy vs SD, and i want to address some of the questions you had RJ. I will re-iterate i dont think this game warrants a bet on the line or the spread, i've taken OVER 49.5
First off, San Diego offense. Will they try and run on the porous run D of the Colts? No. San Diego struggle to move the ball when they run on first and second down, they rely on LT so much that they assumed he would pick up big yardage. Although he had a great game last time out, it was against Denver (oh dear, run D?) and the Chargers had a lead to protect (didnt have to in the end). The SD O-line is a pass protecting unit first, not a rush producing line. So the way SD score points is to throw...a lot on the Colts secondary. I think the odd addage of using the run to set up the pass might be true here tho, LT might be given the chance to get 5 yards a carry at the start of the game, if Indy have to bring Sanders down into the box then Rivers will start throwing 90% of plays!
My point stands by San Diego's home-record.
lost 26-24 vs carolina (last second TD throw) (50 points)
win 48-29 vs jets (77 points)
win 30-10 vs patriots (40 points)
win 19-20 vs cheifs (39 points)
lost 23-20 vs colts (last second FG) (43 points)
lost 22-16 vs Atlanta (38 points)
won 34-7 vs oakland (41 points)
won 52-21 vs denver (73 points)
Could easily have been 7-1, beating Pats, Jets, Broncos easily is ok form. They play well in the heat and calm conditions, it means Rivers can throw. My problem with SD is, can they stop Manning? I fear Indy might just pass all over this weak secondary. So do i bet on San Diego? No, Indy have already beaten them once this year in SD. Do i bet on Indy? No, Chargers are really tough at home and will keep it close. Gates and LT will play and be fine i think, just mind games, both are seasoned pros and just getting prepared physically.
I can't believe the line is only 49.5 in some ways, play-off football is normally low scoring but mixture of good conditions, to great passing offenses and two weak defences (one dreadful) means that i can easily see each team score the 25 points required. Only 3/8 of home games for SD went over 49.5, however it was all in games with suspect defense but strong offense, Denver, Carolina, Jets. 43 points in this matchup last time, SD offense rolling better now, this Indy will pass more and be effective so im hoping for shoot up time!
this Indy will pass more and be effective so im hoping for shoot up time!
No need to bring recreational drug use into it!
I can see both games going over the Line. I dont see how either Arizona or Atlanta can stop each other doing what they do, nor can I really see the Chargers stopping the colts passing the ball. The only thing Indy have in their favour is Tony Dungy. The defence was terrible the year they won the superbowl but when it got down to the nitty gritty the passrush and run-stopping excelled and thats what got them to the SB. Dungy will have some schemes ready for SD tonight but if Indy cant run the ball then I cant see how they will beat San Diego
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