NFL Divisional Playoffs

[SmoggyFever]

For the first time ever i will be looking at the stats side big time to come up with more in depth info on this weekends games. Hopefully we get great success like the wildcards
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Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there

[SmoggyFever]

ARIZONA @ CAROLINA

Ok, done the arizona game - and let me tell you this.............no way is this a +10 pt game, no way. I'm not saying arizona will win or keep it within 10pts, all im saying is that the spread should be more like 6 or 7.
the bookies are just devastated i think because so much money was made on the 3 expected wins - balt, philly and to a lesser extent, arizona.
cheers bookies


anyway, the over is the play in this game, ari average 27 pts /gm
car average 26pts/gm

the only way i see carolina blowing arizona out is possibly if ari turn the ball over as much as they did in the reg season. that is up for debate as i dont know how good car d is at pressuring warner. or how good the cards o line is. i see td's galore here, over 48.5 is the play for me, but i also may have a little tipple on cards +10 because that is a silly line to prevent money on carolina who should still win mind you.
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Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there

[RussBradley2004]

Arzina's away form is terrible, mainly because warner turns the ball over so much! Can't see how they can stay close to Carolina to be honest..will right up picks later in week but really dont want to touch the +10 line

[brick]

Well this will be my first effort at a proper write up on an NFL game. My confidence has grown recently after some good performances as a US Sports Pro Tipster tables here at OLBG.

Arizona @ Carolina

Carolina will win this game with a lot of points scored. Although that is probably not up for debate let me just emphasize the following:
Williams plus Stewart on the ground means that Arizona will have to have lots of defenders in the box if they want to stop the run. If they do that then they will have to find a way to cover Steve Smith perhaps in single coverage. Good luck with that!
Carolina is 8-0 at home this season.
Kurt Warner is liable to turn the ball over especially on the road and Arizona will need him to have a massive game to win this one which I do not see happening. Ignoring week 17 against Seattle the last time he had a quarterback rating over 100 was in week 10. He will need to replicate that IMO for the Cards to have a chance of winning.

Taking the Cards +10 for me is tough looking at the injury news. It looks like the Panthers welcome back all their key injured linemen whereas Arizona may be missing Anquan Boldin. Even though they have strength in depth at WR this is still Boldin we are talking about. On the other hand, although I can see Carolina winning by more than one possession generally playoff games are closer than 10 points by the end. Will probably leave the handicap alone.

Game totals: I agree there will be a lot of points scored but I think that the line 48.5 is too low to take the over. Playoff games aren’t historically scorefests and the last time the teams met there were 50 points scored. I would expect it be around the same again but that is too close to take anything on the points for me.

The safe play here is to take Carolina off scratch. It is highly unlikely they will not win this game.

[rjholland]

Welcome Brick. Nice job on your first write up. Like you guys say this Cardinals/Panthers match really doesn't look that punter friendly, i'm not touching it so have turned my attentions to the other 3 interesting, exciting matches.

Chargers v Steelers

I love this match-up, not going to be a game of high flying offense so I realise this isn't everyone's favourite but I think it's going to be a fascinating game played in the trenches. I've got two separate, healthy accumulators running onto the under 38.5 and SD +7.5 so I won't be investing anymore in the game but I am really keen on this under. Think it's sitting at 37.5 now and should hold there or drop another half point but I really don't see how this gets to be a high scoring game.

As to who wins it I think Pittsburgh should just grind it out but for them to cover the spread is a big ask. SD never loses by much, think they've suffered 2 double digit losses in the last 3 years; this season they have lost by 6,3,1,5,9,7,1 and 2, an average of just over 4 points. I think they can keep this one close again. Looking at the last match they played here is interesting, the Steelers won 11-10 amid huge controversy at the end, well it got all the betting conspirators harping on about fixes again. Nevertheless SD covered the spread after really being dominated in most areas of the game. Pittsburgh had 24 1st downs to SDs 16, yards of 410 to 213, time of possession was 36:31 to SDs 23:29 and the QBs were very contrasting- Rivers went 15/26 159 yards 57.7 pct for a passer rating of 43.6 while Roethlisburger went 31/41 308 yds 75.6% for a QB rating of 96.4. Yet SD managed to keep the game close and this was when they were playing poorly now they are playing so much better in all aspects of the game they really should keep this game under a touchdown.

The key question for Pittsburgh backers is how fit is Ben Roethlisburger? Coming off that concussion is he really going to be able to lead this team to the full potential of his ability? He's suffered from concussions before, in 2006 he was concussed against Atlanta in the next game vesus the Raiders he was sacked 5 times and threw 4 interceptions! But this time he has had an extra week to get over it and the recovery period for a concussion really depends on the severity of the symptoms which we are really not going to know. However after practising this week he was apparently suffering from a swollen head, this really doesn't sound good but is it just pyschological tactics? If SD can get pressure on Pittsburgh and sack Ben a few times early on i've gotta feel they can win straight up.

That said, there are a lot of conditionals regarding SD. The bet I like in this match is the under I just don't see how either team scores above 20. Everyone knows how tough this Pitts defense is, number 1 in almost every defensive stat and the way SD's D have started to play and with questions arising about an already fairly impotent Pittsburgh offense really makes me think of a scoreline in the teens. A see a fair bit of punting in this match and if Scifer is booming them back inside the Pitts 10 then it's going to be demoralising, increase the pressure and keep the score down.

Sorry realised i've waffled a bit i'll shut up and let someone else have their say but if anyone can see this match going above the 37/38 marker please let me know.

[brick]

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

Just to add to the above (and I like waffling as much as the next man!):

Well the weather forecast for this one is bad. Cold and wet all the way. This plays into the hands of 2 very good defensive teams. We all know about the Steelers D but the new Chargers defensive co-ordinater Ron Rivera has turned them into a much better defensive team as was evidenced in the win over the Colts. Also you have got to factor in the low scoring of the Steelers offense in general.
It will be difficult to pass the ball in the wind and cold, especially for Rivers who is more used to the weather of San Diego. Running will also be tough if the weather is as bad as predicted with Parker and Sproles both small explosive type players they will struggle to keep their footing when making cuts.

A line of +6 here is too much for me simply because that would require the Steelers to score a reasonable amount of points. The only way I see the Steelers winning by 6 or more is if they can score points from turnovers. While that is a distinct possibilty with their defense it is not a certainty. I’m leaving the line on this one.

Under 38 points for me is a great bet. I cannot envision any circumstances (except a complete Chargers meltdown involving more than two INT/Fumble recovery for a TD) in which there would be more than 38 points in this game. In fact I am so baffled by this line that I feel I must be missing something. So I very much agree with the post above!

Anyone care to disagree with us?

[rjholland]

Baltimore Ravens v Tennessee Titans

This feels like one of those games that you can analyse and analyse and just twist yourself into knots ending up more lost than when you started! So i'm just breaking this down into a couple of bare factors.

I'm fairly certain Flacco and the Ravens offense will struggle. I had my worries about this Baltimore offense going into the Miami game and my concerns are still there. Flacco had light years to throw against Miami, they got no sacks on him and next to no pressure yet he still only completed 9 out of 23 passes for 135 yards that's 39% and given the time and the difficulty of those passes he should have made a lot more. I don't really feel this was down to Miami's secondary coverage either, I saw him miss some wide-open guys. The Titans D will be meaner than Miami and if he throws for over 200 yards I will be surprised. I haven't got anything against Flacco nor rookie QBs, I think Roethlisburger and Brady both led their teams to Superbowls in their rookie seasons but I just don't think Flacco is ready for that kind of pressure as good as he will eventually be.

So taking that the Ravens offense won't score more than 2 TDs the question for me is how many the Titans offense will get on this Baltimore D?....And bizarely inverting that how many points will this Baltimore defense get on this Titans offense?? If Collins stays pick-free then they win but that's a huge 'if' against this mean defense with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis lurking around to bring heat, cause fumbles and got those crucial pick sixes. I like Tennessee's dual run attack or "smash and dash" as they have dubbed themselves and Collins has proved that he can win the big game when their run offense is limited. I believe they can outscore the Ravens but i'll want some insurance in my bet.

Pretty sure the Ravens will have a lot of backers and i'd love to join in, maybe it's my British mentality of support for the underdog or the punter in me always looking for reasons to back the outsider but as it stands i'm not whole heartedly behind this one. This happens a lot in the divisional playoffs people don't see a team for 2 weeks and forget about them and jump on the impressive team from the Wildcard weekend.

I see another low scoring game but the line at 34 is about right so I think my bet(s) for this are going to be a slight teaser and a cover. I think i'll have 1 unit on the Titans -2.5 teased with the under 40 this pays a fraction over 6/4. I said i'll be having a cover and that'll be 1/4 unit on the Ravens to win by 1-6 and the under 40 again this pays 6/1. I'll wait until the weekend to see if the public brings the Tennessee line down although it would require some serious cash or injury news to bring it off 3.

[rjholland]

Still up waiting for the final bowl game so thought i'd have a scout round the prop bets for this weekend. Found one I quite like, brick you might like it too. It's under 660.5 total offensive yards in the SD/Pitts match.

Only one of Pittsburgh's 16 games this season has gone over this many yards with an average of 549 yards total offense, at Heinz field NO games have gone over this amount with an average of 548- obviously including the previous match in Pittsburgh between these two teams.

SD's D has only just started to play so blatently more of their games have gone over, 9 out of 16 but take into account this includes Denver twice, N.O., the Jets and Carolina all teams who like to get involved in shoot-outs.

At Heinz field it will be extremely tough to move the ball, with the pitch being very hard to run and cut on. Add the weather as said in a post above and I really see this one staying under that many total offensive yards.

[brick]

Interesting rjholland. Where did you find that market?

[rjholland]

It's with Bet365.

[SmoggyFever]

cracking write ups rj and brick, and yes, we do love a bit of waffling!!
please disregard my arizona pick, it is a no bet for me now. i will not be betting at all on that game Except.........i'm loving the props. kurt warner under 284 yds @5/7 on Bet365, i reckon he'll throw 240 yds so im confident on that one.
i will be looking at more prop markets but i love san diego +6 altho i will more than likely buy up to 7.5 for insurance. the player props in that game should be hit on early before any last minute downpours hamper the yardage assumptions.
i just cant get my head round this baltimore game, so much is on baltimore but i like titans here, i dont know why tho, maybe my gut is telling me flacco will struggle and even tho collins is not an amazing player, i feel he will throw the big passes that complete the 3rd and 13's im expecting from the balt D.

Please disagree with my assumptions before i wager on it lol. (probs sat night )
good luck guys
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Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there

[brick]

I would expect Warner to throw less than 300 easily so that bet isn't a bad one.

Ravens @ Titans

I am leaving this one well alone. Unders would be my thoughts but not with much confidence. Other than that very tough to call and I would side slightly with the Titans as I would be concerned about the Rookie QB on the road against a top defensive team such as the Titans.