NFL Championship Games

SmoggyFever · Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:47 pm Post subject: NFL Championship Games

Really early in the week but the bookies have made philly 3.5 pt favs and pitts 5 pt favs.
Dont like the philly spread and would expect the line to come down a bit, bookies must be expecting a strong philly backing.
the pitts line is a bit big, i would be expecting 3 pts.
So far im liking Baltimore and Arizona/philly under 48
i'm on the baltimore bandwagon!!!
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Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there

RussBradley2004 · Group 1 Class Joined: 27 Mar 2005 Posts: 381

i'm not. Pittsburg will win this one easily i fear

Baltimore offense is simply not good enough AND Pittsburg did a better job at keeping the heat off Ben, and he showed what that offense could do with time

Steelers win with plenty to spare

Eagles should beat Arizona (who knows after Delhomme's destruction?), but i will be taking 2.5 points on the spread

happy betting

SmoggyFever · Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 10:34 pm Post subject:

yeah, its a good point, i didnt take into account the beaten up balt D. they are really hurting now, the line has jumped to -6 as well.
wont be betting against arizona though, they arent making the mistakes that cost them points in the regular season, no fumbles!!! what a shock
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Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there

RussBradley2004 · Group 1 Class Joined: 27 Mar 2005 Posts: 381

one difference

Philly blitz and get pressure, Carolina and Atlanta = not so much

Expect Jim Johnson to give Warner v little time to hit Fitz on 40 yard bombs. Many scaks and i reckon a couple of turnover is likely

rjholland · Group 1 Class Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 290

Yep i'm definitely liking Pittsburgh, undecided on the other game. I think i've made my feelings on Baltimore's offense clear but now like you say their defense must be getting weary, this will be their 3rd straight playoff road game, they had their bye week waayyyy back in week 2 and couldn't even afford to rest players towards the end of the season. With the way Pittsburgh spat out the Chargers and the way Baltimore really should have been comfortably beaten by the Titans Pittsburgh look a solid bet this weekend.

rjholland · Group 1 Class Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 290

Just found this stat browsing around:

Teams that knock out the defending superbowl champ are 0-10 in the following playoff game. Confused

Usually don't give stats and trends much credence in the playoffs but that one is nice.

rjholland · Group 1 Class Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 290

Lol arkanoid.

Sorry to say they lost last weekend in the NFC divisional game 33-13 to Arizona.

SmoggyFever · Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:03 pm Post subject:

yeh, you must be quite high if you didnt see that carolina were blown away, or should i say, delhomme
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Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there

rjholland · Group 1 Class Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 290

Another trend:

63-0-2 trend

If you like the favourites in the conference championship games don't worry about taking the points as they either win and cover or the dog wins straight up.

Hope the stat's clear. Simply if the favourite wins they cover so don't take the ML but if the dog wins they win straight up so don't take the points. That's if you follow trends AND then of course you've got to decide whether you like:

Philly -3.5 and/or Pittsburgh -6
Or Arizona 7/4 and/or Baltimore 9/4

brick · Listed Class Joined: 10 May 2007 Posts: 39

I think Delhomme might have been smoking whatever you have had last weekend tbh arkanoid Very Happy

Very interesting trend rjholland. Tempted by Pittsburgh after a tremendous performance last week and as has been said Baltimore not likely to score many points.

rjholland · Group 1 Class Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 290

That's what I was thinking brick, was just going to bet the Steelers on the money line but don't see the point of going against the trend so will probably just take the -6 now because I really don't see them losing straight up.

SmoggyFever · Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:17 am Post subject:

Considering the lowest pts total in arizxona this yr was 41, i may change my original pick from the under to the over - i also did some capping and see this as philly win by 3 and it being a 53 pt ball game - hope that helps you fellas, as a result, i may tease arizona and the over or just go arizona ml and over 47
I really dont want to touch the steelers game atm, may try and cap it on saturday but its gonna be hard as balts d is hurting and i cant put a value on their best defensive players atm
I guess that game will come down to turnovers Confused

_________________
Since Celtic can't get into the Premier League, Strachan is giving the players a chance to get Boro there