Sat 1st July World Cup

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5882

A couple of days off for everyone, but looking ahead...

England haven't beaten Portugal since a friendly back in 1998, and the last competitive win was in 1966 - and we all know what happened then. If you're looking for a slightly different bet, check out the World Cup markets at Sporting Index. We've taken a look at some of their prices (see preview below) - new clients can claim a big £200 free bet at Sporting Index (please see their site for terms and conditions)

England v Portugal Preview

Although England don't have a good record against the Portuguese, Sporting Index have still got them as favourites to win by 0.3 to 0.5 goals on their "Supremacy" market. This is influenced by the fact that Portugal are missing both Deco and Costinha through suspension. However, Big Phil has proven to be Sven's nemesis twice before in the big competitions. He managed to beat England with 10 men in Shizuoka in 2002 when Ronaldinho was sent off. Two years later he successfully changed formation in Lisbon after Rooney was forced off through injury. With the influential Figo available, and Ronaldo looking likely to figure, Scolari could dash English hopes for a third successive tournament.

On top of this, Scolari has never lost a World Cup match. In fact, the 11 straight victories he has enjoyed with Brazil in 2002 and now Portugal is a record. His current team has also not lost a match (competitive or friendly) since the Euro 2004 final. On the other hand, England are still unbeaten in Germany. Although Sven's team have only scored five goals so far, Portugal have only managed six. On the back of this, and the other low-scoring matches in this round, Sporting Index predict a total of just 2.1 to 2.3 goals will be scored in 90 minutes.

So in this battle of wits between the Swedish iceman and Big Phil, formation will be key. In the Ecuador match, Carrick made more passes than any other England player, (66 in total, 57 successful). He also spent significantly longer on the ball (196.9 seconds) than anyone else - Ashley Cole is in second place with 156 seconds. However, Carrick didn't make a single tackle (Terry topped that list, with 5). In fact, England's three central midfielders only made one between them.

Although the boy wonder Rooney had the lowest possession of any England player at just 84.5 seconds, he looks ready to start scoring. With his Goal Minutes priced up at 14 to 17, you'd expect to see plenty of punters betting high at 17 minutes. Lampard may have missed an impressive 18 shots so far, but he's doing something right to have had so many goes and England's top scorer in the qualifiers has got to get lucky sooner or later; he is available at 11 to 14 minutes. Even though Pauleta has been quiet by his standards (many tipped him for the Golden Boot), his spread of 10 to 13 also looks tempting.

Bookings are likely to figure prominently in the betting as well. So far, there has been an average of 5.6 yellow cards per match across the tournament. England have been given seven cards over four matches, whereas Portugal have an impressive 18. Although this includes nine cards earned in their very negative match against Holland, a "grudge" match like this could get feisty. Sporting Index has a price of 68 to 72 points on their Bookings market (10 points for a yellow card, 25 for red). Having seen Portugal v Holland settle at 220 points (four red and 16 yellow cards), there won't be many punters betting low on Saturday.

Total Tournament Yellow Cards

At the start of this tournament, Sporting Index predicted the total number of yellow cards shown in all 64 matches was 270 to 280. As more and more have been dished out, this price has moved up and up, currently standing at 326 to 330 (276 cards shown after 54 matches). With 10 matches to go, there's still plenty of time to take an interest in this market.

Tax Free · Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:18 pm Post subject:

Obviously English isnt your 1st language - Biased.
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higgwhooo · Listed Class Joined: 04 Apr 2006 Posts: 37

gonna have to disagree john mate.

Just because they get paid so much doesnt mean they don't want to win the world cup (it's the world cup ffs, the biggest footballing event there is, maybe the money issue would be more true for the league cup or charity shield, but not the world cup!).

Just because sven is leaving, do you think he won't want to win the world cup? (it's the world cup ffs).

imo it could go either way, there will be no walk overs at this stage of the tournament.

you do make a good point, "don't be stupid enough to ball all ur money on england" I think that that is always true, no matter what the bet.

STUBBLE · Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:31 pm Post subject:

There are a couple of historical trends surrounding this game but they are contradictory.

Firstly, Portugal have won the last 3 competitive matches between the teams (1-0 1986 WC, 3-2 2000 EC & on penalties at 2004 EC) - this kind of head to head stat would have held you in very good stead in the Portugal/Holland and France/Spain games.

However, on the other side of the coin is the fact that none of those meetings was in the knockout stages of the World Cup - in fact, since 1966, England have only been knocked out of the tournament by Germany (three times), Argentina (twice) and Brazil. This suggests that England can match the 'best of the rest' but struggle against the real heavyweights of the game, which Portugal are not.

I think the losses of Deco and Costinha have been overstated. Fine players though they are, Portugal are not short of quality in the squad. C. Ronaldo is still a doubt and I think that would be a bigger blow, as he is very often the player who puts the pace into the Portuguese attacks. The return of Gary Neville would be a big boost for England - not just for his defensive play and his link up with David Beckham, but also because it will free up Hargreaves to fill the holding midfield role. The form of Lampard is still a major problem (seems to be feeling the effects of a long season), but he did score against these opponents two years ago and will no doubt start this match.

The X-factor for England could of course be Wayne Rooney - he was injured very early on in the game two years ago, so couldn't influence proceedings. However, his second half effort against Ecuador was his best since returning from injury and we are likely to see better still in this game.

The player who would concern me from an England point of view is Luis Figo. He seems to have a renewed appetite for the game following his move to Inter Milan. However, my concern is based on the fact that he shouldn't be on the pitch on Saturday, having clearly butted Van Bommel in the previous game. How often have we seen players in that situation go on to have a significant impact?

My own feeling is that England may just be good enough to win this, though the heat is a concern and it wouldn't be a massively confident selection. This one could be destined for extra time, and if it goes to penalties.................shut your eyes and pray Laughing

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coopsy02 · Stallion Read My Blog! Joined: 09 Apr 2005 Posts: 7021

well stubble, think you have hit the nail on the head, deco, costinha, who is getting on a bit, are a loss, much like owen for england, the players coming in for these guys have already played in the games played and the heat, i think the heat will be a big factor, especially if big Phil attacks early and shuts up shop for dear-life, i reckon the old E.T. & Pens could be the shout Smile

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Tax Free · Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:12 pm Post subject:

I concur with almost everything you say STUBBLE appart from that I disgree that Decos absence has been over stated. I believe Deco is the glue that has held the Portugese side together and when he hasnt played they have looked unimaginative, flat and half the team they are with him. I believe he is a massive loss and may prove to be the difference between the two teams.

I also believe that Figo wont be the main danger to England and is far down the list on threats. Although he played well against Angola they are one of the worst teams in the tournament and saying he has been rejuvenated is permature as against Iran, Mexico and Holland he was decidedly average.

Two years is a long time in football and its interesting to see that Rui Costa is no longer playing, he was their best player in the game against England in Euro 2004. England on the other hand have been boosted by J.Cole, J.Terry and P.Robinson.

France showed that you can improve as the tournament progresses and im sure England will step up their performance against Portugal.
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Forum Tips include.... Horse Racing - Eddie Jock 50/1, Hear The Echo 40/1, Silent Oscar 33/1, New Approach 25/1, Hearthstead Maison 25/1.

Betfairalfie · At Stud Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 4809

buzzer · Posted: Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:46 pm Post subject:

I reckon Sven needs to have the balls to drop beckham, yes he scored in the last one i know, but that is all he has done in 4 world cup matches so far. Against Equador we were playing 5 midfielders and a lone striker, so what does beckham do?, he lobs 60 yrd balls forward for the whole game. If you gonna play a lone striker with 5 in the middle, then play to that formation, long balls dont work in that situation. I think if we play 4-4-2 with rooney and crouch/walcott up front and go for the juggluer early we will have a chance, but if its the lone striker on the pitch with Beckham....................then who knows?
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Tax Free · Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:24 am Post subject:

He did set up the Crouch goal against T&T and the goal against Paraguay.

Id have to agree that he plays too many long balls but I would still encourage him to play the odd long ball.
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Forum Tips include.... Horse Racing - Eddie Jock 50/1, Hear The Echo 40/1, Silent Oscar 33/1, New Approach 25/1, Hearthstead Maison 25/1.

Tax Free · Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:42 am Post subject:

The weather is going to be very hot on Saturday but on the upside the humidity will be down to a level below that on what we will have in England on Saturday and way down on that experienced by Argentina and Germany on Friday.
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Royal Ascot Comp 2007 #3, Aintree Comp 2008 #1

Forum Tips include.... Horse Racing - Eddie Jock 50/1, Hear The Echo 40/1, Silent Oscar 33/1, New Approach 25/1, Hearthstead Maison 25/1.

Seagull · Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:45 am Post subject:

Before the Rooney injury there was no argument about formations or who should play where. The team picked itself and the formation was 4-4-2.

Now that Neville is back and Cole and Rooney have proved their fitness we should throw out all thought of holding midfielders etc and remember this.

I would be much happier if we had Defoe to play alongside Rooney but Crouch can do the job and (dare I say it) Walcott should be given a chance at some point.

No doubt our Swedish friend will have other ideas and will juggle things round to include Owen Hargreaves..............

Still think England will win though although it could be an extra time job. Fingers Crossed

The forecast is for highest temperatures of 29. This would be around 1pm so it will probably only be around 21 - 23 by 5pm (German time) which is actually a fair bit cooler than the Ecuador game and as Tax Free says humidity will not be such a problem. Don't think the weather can be an excuse this time!
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mattpjl · Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:03 am Post subject:

I would really LOVE us to win this one as we owe them for that Euro 2004 defeat (which never should've been) i think we may just hold the edge tomorrow as they will miss Costihna and Deco and we are near enough full strength (allowing for those injured like Mr Owen) I see a close game maybe extra time but think we now have the belief to win this game and matches allowing maybe the WC. Gone for a 1st goalscorer of one Mr Frank Lampard @ 9/1- overdue a goal and this could be the day.

On a different note i had £40 on Eng at 10-1 to win the WC with Victor Chandler , now they are 8.6 to Lay on Betfair do you think they will go down much further if they win tomorrow's game?