Semi Finals

[Dammo Qwirky]

World Cup Semi-Final Preview

Germany v Italy

Italy have beaten Germany in their last couple of friendly matches, but Sporting Index have got the hosts as favourites to win by 0.2 to 0.4 goals. Germany have a strong record in Dortmund; of the 14 matches played there, they've won 13 and drawn one, scoring 57 and conceding just seven goals. As a team, they are solid all round and have regained their confidence, with full-backs Lahm and Friedrich in particular much improved.

Although Italy have looked strong, they've not had to face any really strong opponents so far in this campaign. Klinsmann will have noted Toni's form, he's flying on the back of a high-scoring domestic season and is the main Italian threat. With Pirlo and Cannavaro both looking solid at the back, these unyielding defences suggest a low-scoring affair (as has been the case in most knock-out matches) and Sporting only predict a total of 2.1 to 2.3 goals in this game. The Italians will not want this one to go to penalties. They have lost all three of their shoot-outs in previous World Cup matches, whereas the Germans have won all four of theirs...

France v Portugal

It's over 30 years since Portugal last beat les Bleus, who have tasted victory in their last seven meetings. Although Portugal are given a big boost by the return of Deco to the midfield, the French have got their tails up and have been made favourites to win by 0.3 to 0.5 goals. Old hands (or should that be legs?) Zidane and Viera have both impressed, along with new blood in the shape of Ribery. He's not a goalscorer, but his quick brain coupled with quick feet has provided some essential creativity.

France's weakness lies at the back. Makelele has not looked his best, and as ever Barthez has caused some drama while flapping at high balls. Fortunately there's not much height in the Portuguese front line; Pauleta is the main threat backed up by Maniche and Deco. Pauleta's Goal Minutes are priced at 9 to 12 minutes, the same as Zidane. These both look low compared to Henry's spread of 19 to 22 minutes.

Again, it will be a tight game - France have conceded two goals so far (one was a penalty) to Portugal's one goal, so Sporting Index has set another low spread of 2.1 to 2.3 goals in the match.

Bookings

The story of this tournament - 304 yellow cards have been shown so far. Sporting Index has a spread of 56 to 60 (10 points for a yellow card, 25 for red) on their Bookings market for Germany v Italy. This is a relatively low price, as Germany have played pretty clean so far. Similarly, although Italy have been involved in matches with plenty of cards, they've been shown to their opponents. Mexican ref Benito Archundia has also proven to be less card happy. The spread for France v Portugal is higher at 68 to 72 points; while France have been well behaved, Portugal are aggressive and have kept the ref much busier.

Click for details on how to get an account with Sporting Index.

[olivergt]

I know it is getting harder and harder to predict winners, but I can't believe that nobody else has any thoughts on this today!

Me, I am siding with Germany to beat Italy, although I think it will be close. Initially I was looking at Teams that won in ET or PS and how they did the next round, but there is not a lot in it, although most of them went on to lose the next match (14 lost 10 won in the last 5 World Cups)

I think Italy have had the easier ride with Australia and Ukraine and Germany with their Tutonic efficiency I think will edge it. 1-0 or even going to ET and Penalties again.

I have taken Germany AH (0,-0.5) @1.97 (this is now 2.02 - damn!)
and Germany to Qualify @ 4/7

Anybody else got any thoughts?

Oliver.

[Seagull]

I agree. Italy have shown nothing so far to fear and have sneaked into the semis without playing a really good side. They can't afford to be totally defensive as they wont want penalties with their terrible record (and their opponents record!) in shoot outs which could lead to a more open game than most are suspecting.

Germany have impressed me with their attitude. It's gotta help being at home but you still have to hand it to them for the football they've played and the fact that even when it's not been going well they've dug deep and found that bit extra. I think they're a much better side than Italy and are MUCH more deserving of a place in the final and I think they'll do the job in normal time tonight.
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[chilin_dude]

Man of the match tips that are value IMHO:

Gatusso @ 19 - Got MOTM last match, he is a commanding defensive mid that also gets forward at times. I can see him cutting out the German threat attacking wise, and if it is a low scorer i.e. 1-0 Italy then he is in with a brilliant chance of winning it. Fifa also seems to always give MOTM to midfielders and ESPECIALLY defensive mids (gatusso, Viera, Hargreves etc) and the trend could continue here.

Zambrotta @ 34 - WAY overpriced on Bet365, only 19s on Betfair and I think this offers real value as again he could be the rock for Italy - I must admit I don't know too much about him, but he has impressed when I've seen him.

Schweinsteiger @ 19 - A very good attacking midfielder for Germany, with Klose being good in the air he could easily get an assist or two and also he can strike a ball well and I reckon he's due a goal soon

£10 on each of the above.

Now heres a bit more of an interesting one:

£100 Over 3.5 Goals @ 6.8 - I reckon both teams will try and get an early goal, and if there is one within the first 15 mins then I should be able to Lay this off for less

[spudley]

italy france final and italy will win definitly

[spudley]

this will be germanys last game,it wont be high scoring but italy will sneak this 1

[RussBradley2004]

I am not so impressed by Germany as everybody seems to be, their matches against Poland and Costa Rica shows their frailties

For me, Italy are too storng defensively for Germany to win, against Argentina Germany only had 1 shot on target and were aided by the Argentine goalie being subbed off, i think it will take some fluke for Germany to score (or another Frings-like effort!!)

Expect Italy to vwin this 1-0 (13/2 on Coral shows great value), but if it does goes to penalties, i would only then start to favour the Germans

[Tax Free]

Italy will be exposed tonight. They have looked indifferent throughout the competition and without several huge slices of luck would already be out. Germany will have too much for the Italians.
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[mattpjl]

Guys- who takes the penalties in normal time for both Germany and Italy please

[coopsy02]

i reckon it could be Totti and deffo Klose for the germans, or is it
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[step]

Totti, and i thought it was Ballack for Germany.
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[Tax Free]

Id say Ballack but they could all take them.
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Royal Ascot Comp 2007 #3, Aintree Comp 2008 #1

Forum Tips include.... Horse Racing - Eddie Jock 50/1, Hear The Echo 40/1, Silent Oscar 33/1, New Approach 25/1, Hearthstead Maison 25/1.